Edit: the first satellite caucus results are in. It's a tiny number of voters and mostly irrelevant. However, in a Florida retirement home caucus, Klobuchar finished first to Biden's third. Warren and Sanders earned no support
Tomorrow is the Iowa Caucus - the first nominating contest for the Democratic Party.
Recently odds have been moving in a completely insane way, so these are the bets I'm taking. Lay Bernie 1.5 (-200). Lay Yang 50 (+4900). Back Buttigieg (12.0, +1100). Back Warren (16.0, +1500). Back Klobuchar (100.0, +9900)
The current polling on average is Sanders 22 Biden 20.7 Buttigieg 16, Warren 15, Klobuchar 11. (Edit: new poll out making it even closer) There are five legitimate candidates, although that is the ranked order of likelihood. But it's relatively close and there is a LOT of uncertainty.
First, it's important to recognize that the caucus process is complex and had multiple layers of uncertainty. To begin, there is a "viability" threshold at each individual caucus site. Any candidate who does not earn 15% of the initial support is usually eliminated and the supporters are required to select someone else over 15%. But it's more complex than that, because someone under 15% can try to peel off a few supporters from other candidates, including ones who did earn 15%, to make it into that threshold. And this process repeats again until everyone remaining is at 15%.
So pollsters can ask who voters top choice is, and then for people who chose someone under 15%, ask who their second choice is, and then tally up those numbers. But it's hard to say because someone who is earning over 15% in most precincts, but then doesn't in some others, may earn either 0% in many locales even if their overall support is over 15%. And the second choice process isn't simple. Someone who backs, say, Buttigieg but wants to see a female president, might prefer Warren as a second choice but reassign to Klobuchar because she's at 14% in that area. Or vice versa.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty.
Secondly, polling caucuses is very hard because it's hard to know who will actually show up. Very few people caucus, and even fewer do it consistently. It's not like a regular election where merely knowing that someone says they'll vote or has voted in the past is an extremely good indicator of who will caucus..
It's extremely inconvenient, long and boring. You must show up at a particular place at exactly 7pm Iowa time, wait in line to check in which could take an hour or longer, then stand in a crowded auditorium for over an hour while supporters make speeches, everyone is counted one by one multiple times, supporters play musical chairs etc etc. In summary it takes hours to complete and you can imagine that many people say they will caucus, plan to, and just never do.
Also, people can (and sometimes do) leave before it's over and their vote isn't counted.
As a result quality pollsters have released quite different results. Suffolk Universal and Monmouth University are top-tier pollsters and have Biden winning. NYTimes/Siena showed Bernie with a moderate lead. Other low quality pollsters have ranged from Bernie +7 (Emerson, Change research) to Biden +4 over Bernie (Morningside College). A lot of the difference comes how the pollster predict exactly who will show up.
Secondly, the 15% per-precinct threshold favors candidates who will earn a relatively consistent result across the entire state, and hurts a candidate with concentrated support. A quick example is someone earning 17% in every precinct will finish with 17% while someone earning 10% in half of precincts and 35% in the other half will only wind up with 15% overall despite polling at 22.5%. This favors Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar over Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Sanders will flounder in high income areas and areas with a high AA population, but will perform extremely well in college areas and cities. Biden's support is more consistent statewide.
So the actual bets
1) Yang has about a 0% chance of winning. If you can lay him at 100.0, you should do it. On Betfair exchange I keep seeing backers 50:1 appearing. It's free money. Take it. This should be clear. There is no universe in which Yang wins.
2) Lay Sanders at 1.5 or -200. He's about 50% to win. For all of the reasons stated above there is a lot of uncertainty. He's low on second choice support, especially from Buttigieg and Klobuchar (the two most likely main candidates to be under 15%.) His support tends to be clustered in cities and especially college areas. He's going to perform terribly in upper-middle class suburbs and areas with older voters. Also places with high AA voting (although there are few, this is Iowa). His supporters are the least consistent voters. Young folks and working class. Also, there are five legitimate contenders and Sanders is at 67% to win some places..
3) Back Buttigieg at 12.0 or +1100. Buttigieg has a strong ground game which is important in Iowa. He will be able to get his supporters out to the caucus location. He hasn't led any recent polls but he's often close. His voters tend to be consistent voters, older folks and wealthy folks. Wealthier, upper middle class individuals are far less likely to have a last second conflict that prevents them from spending their entire
4) Back Warren at 16.0 or +1500. Warren has fallen off her peak from the fall, but she retains around 15% in the polls. Importantly, she is by far the most common second choice, and voters are familiar and comfortable with her. There will be precincts where each of the candidates doesn't earn 15%. Warren is most likely to pick up that support.
4) Back Klobuchar at 100 or +9900. This is a longshot play, no doubt, but she's around 5% to win. She's made a dramatic move upwards in the past few weeks and late momentum is important. A lot of voters make up their minds at the last minute. Plus, she's not all that far behind Sanders, Biden and the others.
Rubio in 2016, for example, surged late, moving up from under 10% a few weeks before the caucus to 15% right before the caucus to finishing at 22% and a surprise 3rd place. Rick Santorum in 2012 sharply increased from single digits a few weeks prior to low teens in right before to finishing at 24% and winning the caucus!
Good luck!

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Does anyone on here ever take part in the football jackpot syndicates on betfair? I’m a regular betfair user but I’ve only recently noticed the syndicate section which is quite separate from the sportsbook or exchange app.
It normally presents a few markets each day for you to create a syndicate on. For example, one of TonIghts markets is a correct score predictor for tonight’s 4 Premier League games. You select your predictions but unlike a normal accumulator, you can make multiple selections on the same game. For example, I might be torn between the Newcastle Burnley game being 1-1 or 2-1 so I select both. I can choose as many different scores as I like but this obviously increases the number of lines/bets required to cover every eventuality in an acca. This is where the syndicate part comes in. Let’s say I choose 3 scores for each of tonight’s PL games it actually requires 81 bets to cover all of those eventualities. If we assume £2 a line (the default), then this would cost me £162. Rather than take on all that risk myself though I can create the bet by contributing between 10% and 50% of the required stake and then asking others to contribute the rest. If someone contributes 10% (£16.20) then they will win 10% of the winnings and so on. The bet only gets placed once the contributions reaches 100%. If it falls short then the money is auto refunded to your betting account.
The winnings are Pool based rather than odds based. Similar to things like Sky Bets super 6. Tonight’s correct score game I mentioned above has a jackpot of £188k.
Hopefully some of this made sense and sorry for boring those that are already familiar with it.
Anyway, I thought it would be a good idea if we occasionally group together on this sub for a syndicate. Maybe discuss what the bet should be in the sub and then once we’re in general agreement someone can place it and if others fancy it they can join the bet. Alternatively, if people are creating syndicates they could make a post on this sub so that others can join if they want in.
Anyone interested or any other thoughts?

The next round of the Premier League is scheduled for the weekend and some of the best British teams will go at each other's throats. Football fans have plenty to wait for, but the good news is that action continues midweek, with a string of high profile games. The FA Cup resumes fast and furious and the remaining participants are trying to secure a place in the final stages of the competition. All major bookmakers are running special promotions and Ladbrokes is willing to boost the odds on Carroll to score the first goal in the match between Everton and West Ham. If Smith, Menez and Doyle all find their way to the net, the odds will be boosted from 7/1 to 10/1. The bookmaker also encourages players to bet on several competitions and those who wager on Chesterfield, Bristol City and AC Milan to win will enjoy odds of 5/1 up to 4/1. Paddy Power has an intelligent plan for attracting new customers and it focuses on increasing the odds of several FA cup games. West Ham to win is priced at 7/1, while if Everton prevails in this match, players will increase their investments 10 times. The best returns will go to those who bet on a draw that comes to be, because the odds for this outcome sit at a massive 11/1. If Southampton defeats Ipswich, new members will win a lot of money, more precisely 6 times the amount they wager prior to kickoff. Winner Sports has been running a popular campaign for almost a year now and it goes by the name of Midweek Enhanced Multiples. This week is truly special because there are some great games to wager on and Bristol City, Chesterfield and West Ham all to win will lead to payouts seven times the stakes. If you don't have an account with BetVictor yet, you will benefit from similar terms as the bookmaker offers the same odds for Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham to win. Last but definitely not least, Betfair invites players to check out the largest betting exchange in the world and win a significant amount from the very beginning. West Ham to win at odds of 6/1, while if Everton prevails players will cash in on odds of 7/1, with all participants to receive an additional €100 free bet.
from
via Casinoreviews

Thought I'd start a thread like this due to some being new to it and those that aren't but could explain some basic strategies for soccer betting (and laying)

I'll start off with a few of my tips:

Betting on wincasts and scorecasts is overall a waste of money. It looks good but you're getting horrible value.
I'll use paddy Power bookmakers as an example...
Scorecast for Liverpool to win 1-0 and Suarez to score first = 40/1(41.0) But look at it another way, Liverpool to win 1-0 is 15/2(8.50) and Suarez to score first is 7/1(8.0), that means the bookmakers have other odds of this to happen is 7/1 x 15/2 = 67/1(68.0).. Scorecasts and wincasts, etc; are attractive and bookmakers make a lot of money off of them. I not trying to put you off making "cast" bets but consider the value before hand... The realistic value of this bet would be ~55/1.
Keep an eye on strikers in form, and make bets on them to score anytime or first goalscorer or combination of both. Look all over the world for these strikers if you must, pick in singles or multiples for a weekend, its up to you. I know it sounds simple but look back and think of all the money you could of made backing Demba Ba to score every game in a row, Van Persie or Papiss Cisse, the list goes on..
A more personal one, but lets say you want to do an accumulatoparlay with five teams, go for the 5 fourfold bets instead of the straight accumulator, stops that one result making the difference in winning and gives you a better idea of how good you actually are.
Use at least one bookmaker and one exchange. eg. Paddypower and Betfair. this helps you take advantage of better odds and free bets that bookmakers will give you from time to time. For example for free bets, lets say I get a free €5 bet with PP, I will then go to Betfair and lay on the bet I made with PP.. Means I don't lose.
Lay on a team to score the next goal if they're playing against bigger team and that if they have just scored: eg. Lets say Grenada score a goal against Barca, lay on Grenada to score the next goal...
Fancy a team to cause an upset? Just wait until the match starts. eg. Grenada to win, wait a few minutes into the game and their odds will get bigger almost straight away, especially if the favorites dominate possesion initially..
I'm more familiar with betting on other things personally but I understand these to be fairly good tips and work well for me, feel free to disagree and add your own tips.

Hey beermoneyukers!
After years working in my 9-5 job as a website developer for a large corporation I decided I could not face selling my soul any longer lols and packed in my job.
Since then, I had a stint working as a freelancer whilst also making a healthy side income via matched betting. And over the past 9 months I’ve been building a website that teaches people how to do the same.
There are a lot of websites out there that teach matched betting, but most require a monthly subscription and most have long articles that can be a bit dry and hard to follow.
So instead, I built a website, Team Profit, that:
  Is completely free
  Uses animated video guides to teach people (link)
  Has infographics to accompany all video guides
  Provides step by step guides for 25+ bookmaker offer which will make you £600+ risk free (link)
I have amended the video script over 50 times to try to make it as concise and helpful as possible, hopefully they are a good watch!
Any feedback on the videos, guides, blog or anything else, please let me know, I spend every day adding new content and improving existing content.
If you are thinking of learning matched betting and making £600+ risk free, please check it out!
www.teamprofit.com
 
MEGA FAQs GUIDE TO MATCHED BETTING
 
The video guides I posted above will teach you everything about matched betting.
However, I figure no harm in me writing down everything I know about matched betting in an FAQ style layout. Hopefully this will be useful to you.
I have tried to answer every question as concise as possible / no rambling :D
I have split the FAQs into the following sections:
 
INTRODUCTION
1) What exactly is matched betting and how I do make money risk free?
2) How popular is matched betting?
3) Does it involve gambling?
4) How much money will I need to start?
5) How much time will it take me to learn matched betting?
 
OFFERS & YOUR PROFIT
1) How much money can I make matched betting from the welcome offers (new customer only)?
2) How much is a free bet worth in actual cash profit?
3) After I have finished the Welcome Offers, how much money can I make matched betting each month from Daily Offers (existing customer offers)?
4) What type of Daily Offers are available?
 
BOOKMAKERS AND BETTING EXCHANGES
1) Which bookmakers have the best welcome offers?
2) Which bookmakers have the best offers for existing customers?
3) What is mug betting?
4) What is a betting exchange?
5) How do we use a betting exchange?
 
ADDRESSING COMMON CONCERNS
1) How sustainable is matched betting?
2) Will it impact my credit rating?
3) Do the bookmakers have terms to stop customers from withdrawing?
4) Do I need to know about sports?
 
WHICH WEBSITES TEACH MATCHED BETTING - YOUR OPTIONS
1) Where can you learn matched betting?
 
ADDITIONAL FAQS
1) Depositing and withdrawing
2) Sending identification documents
Any questions that haven’t been answered please add a comment and I’ll add the FAQ and answer.
 
INTRODUCTION
 
1) What exactly is matched betting and how I do make money risk free?
There are more than 25 online bookmakers in the UK. In order to attract new customers, they each offer free bets, known as ‘Welcome Offers’.
In total they offer over £800 in free bets to new customers.
In order to receive the free bet, bookmakers require you to place your first bet. An example offer is ‘Bet £5, Get £20 free bet’.
The risk is that you could lose both the £5 bet (your own cash) and the £20 free bet.
By using a technique called matched betting, we remove this risk.
This is because we match our first £5 bet on the bookmaker with a £5 bet on a betting exchange on the opposite outcome (this is known as a ‘lay bet’).
For example, we bet £5 on Man Utd to win on the bookmaker, and £5 on Man Utd not to win on the betting exchange.
As we have now bet on all outcomes, regardless of whether Man Utd win, draw or lose, we will neither win nor lose money. However, we have received the £20 free bet!
With the £20 free bet, we can now repeat this process by betting on say Liverpool to win on the bookmaker and Liverpool not to win.
This time, because we are using a £20 free bet but our winnings are paid out in cash, we will always make a profit.
We repeat this process for 25+ bookmakers, one by one. In total we can convert the £800+ in free bets to over £600+ in actual cash profit, in very little time at all.
 
2) How popular is matched betting?
Matched betting isn’t new and has been around since at least 2005.
However, it is only since 2015 that it has really increased in popularity due to the rise of websites teaching matched betting. You can see this trend here: Google Trends Link
By looking at the various matched betting sites popularity, a reasonable estimate is at least 25,000 people in the UK are matched betters. You can see a review of sites that teach matched betting in the ‘Which websites teach matched betting?’ section below.
 
3) Does it involving gambling?
This is the most common assumption with matched betting. You’d be forgiven for thinking that it did involve gambling simply because the name ‘matched betting’ would suggest it did.
However, matched betting does not involve gambling, you will never be risking a penny.
Because we are always covering the opposite outcome occurring, there is never any risk we will lose money. Furthermore, we still receive the free bets which we will where we make our profit.
The profitability and risk free nature of matched betting has been reviewed in the Daily Telegraph and the Guardian
 
4) How much will I need to start?
You can start with as little as you want, however the lowest I would recommend starting with would be £25.
With £25, you can start your first bookmaker welcome offer and make a deposit into your first betting exchange, meaning you can start making a profit.
For more details, see this Starting with £25 guide.
The downside, with only £25 you are restricted by having to wait for withdrawals before you can move onto the next offer.
Therefore, I would say an optimal amount to have available for your cash flow would be in the region of £200 as this allows you to complete multiple welcome offers simultaneously.
 
5) How long will it take me to learn matched betting?
To learn the principles of matched betting, it will take up to 20 minutes.
To become familiar with completing your first offer, I would set aside another 30-60 minutes so you can take your time and ensure you are completing it correctly.
For example, the video guides on Team Profit last a total of 21 minutes (8 minutes for the explainers videos and 13 minutes to watch the step-by-step real time example). Although they last just 21 minutes, some users watch certain parts of the video again to become comfortable with the process.
It is very much recommended to avoid trying to learn matched betting by yourself. There are thousands of experienced matched betters who can help you. For more details on this, see the ‘Which Websites Teach Matched Betting’ section.
If you need any help anytime, please do comment in this Reddit thread and I’ll help you out.
 
OFFERS
 
1)How much money can I make matched betting from the welcome offers (new customer only)?
From the welcome offer, you can make approximately £1,000 cash profit.
There are 25+ bookmaker offers available on sports for at least £600 profit. These are relatively straightforward offers and good value in terms of time to complete. It would take around 12 hours to complete these offers, which works around £40 / hour tax free. You can complete them over any time period you like.
There are at least another 5 bookmaker offers, such as Bet365 and BetVictor, though these require more time, you could make around £100 to £200. They require more time because the bookmaker requires you to bet many more times before you can withdraw.
Plus 20+ offers across casino and bingo, though some are not risk free and typically take more time to complete, but you should be able to make at least £200 profit from these offers.
So overall, there is an easy £600 profit risk free, then up to another £400 if it’s worth your time to do them.
 
2) How much is a free bet worth in actual cash profit?
A £10 free bet is worth between £5 to £8 in actual cash profit.
The reason for the range is because the higher odds you choose for your free bet, the more actual cash profit you will make.
For example, if you bet on a football team with odds of 2.0, the £10 free bet will convert to around £5 cash profit. Whereas if you bet on a football team that is unlikely to win, with odds of say 6.0, the £10 free bet will convert to around £8 cash profit.
Note though, the higher odds you choose, the more you will need in your betting exchange account in case the bet wins. For a detailed explanation with examples, read this free bet profit article.
 
3) After I have finished the Welcome Offers, how much money can I make matched betting each month (from existing customer offers)?
Anywhere from £100 to £1,000+ per month.
Bookmakers continue to run free bet offers to retain their customers, I refer to these as Daily Offers.
Daily Offers are typically less valuable than the welcome offers but still worth completing.
For example, rather than ‘Bet £5 Get £20’ that they offer to new customers, they may instead run ‘Bet £20 Get £10’ and on a particular football match.
I would say for people with a day job, aiming for between £300 to £500 a month is realistic. In terms of time required, for every hour you spend, you should make around £30 tax free.
So to make £300 a month, expect to spend around 2-3 hours a week. I’d say to earn more than this, you will likely need to accept a lower hourly rate and do some of the low value offers too.
If you are looking to make £1,000+, I’d expect you would have to be near full time and also be fortunate to keep your enough of your bookmaker accounts open for 12+ month period (what is mugging bet FAQ below).
 
4) What type of offers are available for existing customers?
 
Easy offers:
The most common easy offer on football matches is Bet £20 Get £10 free bet. Many bookmakers run this offer, though it will usually be on a particular football match.
The most common easy offer on horse racing is usually on SkyBet, who will run simple offers such as ‘Get £25 free bet if your horse comes 2nd or 3rd’.
There are also easy casino offers, such as ‘£5 risk free’, where you spin on slots and hope to win, if you don’t they’ll refund up to £5 of losses.
These offers can make you up to £300 per month (or £500 on a good month with European football) and are easy for those with a day job.
 
Harder offers:
If you are looking to make more than £300 to £500 a month, then you will need to spend time on Saturday’s completing horse racing offers on Channel 4 racing and during the week too, though Saturday’s are the most profitable.
Plus you will need to do more advanced offers such as football accumulator refunds, each way offers, though I will leave these aside given they could have their own separate thread :p
If you’d like to understand where you can learn more about these offers, see ‘Which sites teach matched betting?’ FAQ below.
 
BOOKMAKERS AND BETTING EXCHANGE
 
1) Which bookmakers have the best welcome offers?
 
There are 3 formats of bookmakers welcome offers.
 
‘Bet £X Get £Y free bet’ - these are the most straightforward. Simply place your first bet and receive a free bet.
This format of welcome offer, ranging from Bet £5 Get £20 to Bet £50 Get £50, is available on Coral, SkyBet, BetBright, Betfred, Paddy Power, BetStars, William Hill, Stan James, Betway, Ladbrokes, TitanBet, 32Red and MarathonBet.
 
‘Refunds’ (also known as Risk Free offers) - these are similar to Bet £X Get £Y free bet. The only difference is you only receive your free bet if your first bet loses, hence I refer to these offers are refund offers.
This format of welcome offer is, ranging from £10 to £50 refunds, is available on Bwin, Dafabet, UniBet, Totesport, 188Bet, SuperLenny, Genting and 888Sport.
 
‘Multi Bets’ - these welcome offers require multiple bets to be placed before receiving your reward. It can take form of a bonus which requires to bet £X amount until you can withdraw any winnings, or the form of a cash reward once you have bet £X amount.
This format of welcome offer is available on Bet365, BetVictor and some other bookmakers, however they often require such a large amount of betting that I haven’t included them in this list.
The quickest to complete are the Bet £X Get £Y due to their simplicity, then the next best are the ‘Refunds’ offers.
The Multi Bet offers can be very valuable (e.g. Bet£365’s offer is worth over £150 profit risk free) but can also require much larger deposits in order to place the bookmaker bets and lay these bets in your Exchange.
 
For details of each bookmaker offer, see this Welcome Offer List & Guides
 
2) Which bookmakers have the best offers for existing customers?
 
Bookmakers vary in their level of generosity to existing customers. This is a little subjective, but in my opinion, this is the ranking of bookmakers for existing customers:
 
Best: Bet365
Bet365 run a £50 Risk Free offer most months (sometimes twice a month during popular football months) which is worth £35. It is very quick to complete (less than 10 minutes) so for £35 to £70, or around £500 a year, it is a great offer.
Plus they have one of the best horse racing offers, up to a £50 risk free bet if your pick a winning horse with high odds. This is a profitable offer worth around £20-£30 a week, or up to £1,000 to £1,500 a year.
 
Second Best: SkyBet
SkyBet run regular £5 to £25 free bet offers on horse racing and football, plus regular £5 risk free offers in SkyVegas.
 
Third & Fourth Best: Coral and Paddy Power
Both these sites run regular horse racing, price boosts and football offers (Bet £20 Get £10 in particular), at least £20 to to be made on every week from these two sites.
 
Good: William Hill, Ladbrokes, BetStars, Stan James, Betway, Bwin, Betfred, Totesport, 188Bet, 888, BetVictor
All these bookmakers run offer(s) each week so it’s worth ensuring you have completed the welcome offer for each of these sites so you can take advantage of their daily offers for existing customers.
 
3) What is mug betting?
If you are only ever betting when you receive an offer, the bookmaker will no longer allow your account to receive free bet offers (this is known as being ‘gubbed’).
To get around this, you should place ‘mug’ bets. ‘Mug’ bets are simply bets that a ‘mug’ punter would place. Mug bets include £1 accumulators (betting on several teams to win) and betting on favourites without an offer.
Most advice suggests that for every offer you receive, you should place 2-3 mug bets.
If you are gubbed, it does kinda suck when you receive the email, as you can no longer profit from the bookmaker’s offers.
It is also becoming increasingly common as bookmakers are noticing more suspected matched bettors, due to its increasing popularity. My advice is to make money whilst you can and take sensible precautions to try to keep your account active.
For more details, see this Mug Betting article
 
4) What is a betting exchange?
A betting exchange is a marketplace for customers to bet between each other on the outcome of particular events. This differs from a traditional bookmaker because an exchange also gives you the ability to be the bookmaker yourself and take bets from other exchange users.
Standard bookmakers generate profit by offering odds that are in their favour. Betting exchanges explained in terms of how they generate revenue is they charge a commission on any winnings a player receives.
The two market leading betting exchanges are, Betfair and Smarkets.
For more details, Betting Exchanges Comparison.
 
5) How we use betting exchanges?
When matched betting, a betting exchange is used to place our lay bets (the opposite bet to our trigger bet). So when we place the trigger bet with the bookmaker on one outcome to release the initial free bet, we must also cover the opposite outcome so that if the bookmaker bet does lose we still win on the lay bet - making it risk free!
Similarly when we are placing the free bet bet with the bookmaker we then lay off that bet using the exchange and because we’re using a free bet but being paid out in cash, this is how we turn free bets into withdrawable cash.
We only ever use betting exchanges for lay bets.
 
ADDRESSING COMMON CONCERNS
 
1) How sustainable is matched betting?
Matched betting over the past 6-9 months has become harder. Most bookmakers have realised they are thousands of matched betters taking advantage of their offers and so have either reduced the generosity of their offers or have made the daily offers more complicated.
However, there is still intense competition between the bookmakers, meaning they will always run special offers to an extent.
By spending a few hours a week, you can still make £300 to £500 a month, whereas in past year(s) this figure could have been £500 to £800.
The biggest issue matched betters face is being ‘gubbed’. As explained in the mug betting FAQ, this is when a bookmaker restricts you from receiving free bets and bonuses.
There are various theories as to how a particular bookmaker decides to to gub a customer. Reasons include taking up too many offers, winning a high % of bets, withdrawing regularly, placing bets far in advance or at irregular times.
The truth is nobody really knows precisely why people gubbed. However, you can expect to get gubbed at some point from a particular bookmaker, it may be 2 months, it may be 2 years, it is hard to know.
I really think though that everyone can make up to £1,000 from the Welcome Offers and at least £300 to £500 a month without any problems. I think the issues comes when you are making £1,000+ every month which sooner or later bookmakers will catch up that you are taking up a lot of offers.
Having said this, some people say they have been making £1,000+ every month for years, so maybe it is possible if you are using a wide variety of bookmakers and consistently placing mug bets.
 
2) Will it impact my credit rating?
Having betting activity on your bank statement does not impact your credit rating.
The only thing to be wary of when making betting deposits and withdrawals is that it can affect your application for a mortgage. So if you’re planning on applying for a mortgage in the near future then I’d recommend using a separate bank account to that which you’ll be applying for the mortgage with.
 
3) Do the bookmakers have terms to stop customers from withdrawing?
The vast majority of welcome offers do not have any withdrawal restrictions.
A handful of welcome offers do but this will be state in the terms and conditions. It is much easier though to use a matched betting website as they will clearly highlight the key terms of each offer (see ‘Which websites teach matched betting’ section below).
Casino offers will almost always have withdrawal restrictions, however for the matched betting welcome offers we are focusing on sports betting.
 
4) Do I need to know about sports?
Not at all! You do not need a sports background or have any sort of betting knowledge, many matched betters do not know anything about sport or betting before learning matched betting.
You may learn matched betting a little faster if you have sports betting experience but it really isn't important at all.
 
WHICH WEBSITE TEACH MATCHED BETTING - YOUR OPTIONS
 
There are 30+ websites that three key stages to matched betting:
Stage 1) Learning matched betting
Stage 2) Completing the Welcome Offers (for new customers)
Stage 3) Profiting in the long term from Daily Offers (for existing customers)
Below I have tried to cover the main sites that will help you with each of these stages.
 
In summary, I may be biased :p but I think the:
Stage 1) and Stage 2) best approach is to use TeamProfit.com
Stage 3) Join a paid membership site, either OddsMonkey.com, ProfitAccumulator.co.uk or ProfitMaximiser.co.uk to continue to make money from the Daily Offers.
 
FREE SITES:
 
TeamProfit.com (link)
I really believe Team Profit is the best site to learn matched betting and complete the welcome offers, but compare us to the other sites and see what you think!
Learn matched betting with animated videos (link)
25+ Welcome Offers using the step by step guides (link)
A free Facebook group to provide help to you anytime you need (link).
 
MoneySavingExpert.com (link)
The advantage of MoneySavingExpert is the sheer volume of content, covering all aspects of matched betting.
The disadvantage of MoneySavingExpert it is not well structured as it is just one forum with a long lists of posts so it takes quite a while to find relevant threads and miss key information.
 
MatchedBettingBlog.com (link)
The advantage of MatchedBettingBlog is the clear layout of the daily offers posted each day for with step by step instructions. It’s a good site to check to avoid missing the best and easier daily offers. The forum community also helps to post additional offers on top of those listed on the homepage, and also provides general advice on completing daily offers.
The disadvantage of MatchedBettingBlog is it is relatively limited in terms of teaching matched betting and does not provide a clear list of welcome offers. Also, for those looking to make £500+ every month, it doesn’t provide any software to help with the more advanced types of matched betting with daily offers, such as horse racing refunds and accumulator refunds, that the paid member sites offer.
Additional free matched betting sites include:
Matchedbettingfree.co.uk (link) (Reddit thread link)
Freebets4all.com (link)
 
PAID SITES:
 
Paid sites usually charge £15 to £25 a month.
In return, they will teach matched betting, provide list of welcome offers and provide daily offers too. Additionally, most paid sites will also provide software that helps to make you more money plus save you time.
 
OddsMonkey.com (link | non)
OddsMonkey charge £15 per month or £150 per year.
They are the most well known provider of matched betting software. Earlier this year, they added the full range of matched betting services, so now they provide all of the below:
Tutorial articles
Welcome offer step by step guides
Daily offers calendar
Software: OddsMatcher, Horse Racing Refunds, Tennis Refunds, range of calculators and spreadsheet
Forum
The advantage of OddsMonkey is the exceptional value. They have the best range of software and tools for matched betters to maximise their profits, are consistently bringing up new tools at no added cost. At only £15 per month it is one of the best options to consider.
The only disadvantage is the forum is not as busy as the next two options, ProfitAccumulator and Profit Maximiser. Though the forum is still a sufficiently active to ensure any questions have you are answered quickly.
 
Profit Accumulator (Link - Chazmer87's I don't have one | non)
Profit Accumulator charge £23 per month or £150 per year
Profit Accumulator helped to bring matched betting to the main stream with a highly active community. There are clear similarities between OddsMonkey and Profit Accumulator in terms of their high standard of software and offers.
The advantage of Profit Accumulator is their very active community. There is a great deal of advice in virtually every aspect of matched betting and the information is all well structured. Plus they have a very good offers coverage.
The only disadvantage to Profit Accumulator is the higher cost. The membership itself is £23 per month, plus their version of the Horse Racing Refunds software is £10 per month, or £115 a year. So in total you are paying £33 per month versus OddsMonkey’s £15 per month.
 
Profit Maximiser (Link | non)
Profit Maximiser is run by the original matched betting guru Mike Cruickshank.
Mike has been building software for matched betters for many years and has a very active Facebook Group.
Each piece of software is sold separately, I believe the below is accurate, each have their own £1 free trials:
Bonus Bagging £27 plus VAT - provides a list of all welcome offers and teaching (Link | non)
Profit Maximiser £97 plus VAT - provides all daily offers (Link | non)
Each Way Sniper £47 plus VAT - provides a horse racing betting system (Link)
Accumulator Generator £149 plus VAT - provides a football betting system (Link)
I believe Mike may have a couple more tools, if so I’ll edit this post if you could please comment / send me a message.
The advantage of Mike’s products is that there is no monthly recurring fee, so if you intend to do this for many months, it may work out profitable to do so. Plus from what I understand their Facebook Group finds some lucrative casino loophole offers faster than other matched betting providers.
The disadvantage of Mike’s products is that you have to buy each product separately rather than having it all within one simple account. Additionally, the total cost if you were to buy all 4 above listed products is £320 + VAT (total cost £384) whereas you could receive all these tools for £15 per month from Oddsmonkey. Having said that, Mike’s products do come with a £1 free trial, just be careful to cancel before the trial ends if you don’t want to continue.
Additional free matched betting sites include: Yes Bets link
Pure Profit link
 
ADDITIONAL
 
1) Depositing and withdrawing
To ensure you qualify for the Welcome Offer, use a bank card to deposit into your newly set up bookmaker account. Most sites will allow Paypal too though check the terms and conditions.
If you use Skrill or Neteller, typically you will not qualify for the Welcome Offer (bookmakers have this rule to prevent fraud) but you can check the terms and conditions.
Withdrawing is easy, you should receive your funds within 1-3 working days depending on the bookmaker.
 
2) Sending identification documents
Occasionally, bookmakers may require to send in identification documents (passport or drivers licence for example) and a copy of your bank card. This is to prevent fraud. This usually happens if you are not listed on the Electoral Roll or there is a difference between your home address and billing address. Simply take a photo of the documents they ask for and email them back.
 
THAT COMPLETES THE MEGA FAQ GUIDE TO MATCHED BETTING!
 
If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please do post a comment thanks!
 

The world's largest betting exchange is quickly expanding its casino section and it does so by introducing new slot machines and attaching bonuses to them. This is exactly what happens this week, when Betfair decided to celebrate the Cheltenham Festival with a bonus worth 100% the deposit made by casino players. All those who fund their account until March 13, will be eligible for a bonus of up to €25 or currency equivalent, with the free cash to be used on slot machines. All those who have a real money account can participate in this promotion and members are eligible for a single bonus. The offer was unveiled on March 9 and will conclude four days later, with all deposits made during the promotional period to be doubled. The obvious decision would be to deposit €25 to collect the maximum possible bonus, but the smallest amount that qualifies is five euros. Buying in for this amount will result in the free cash being added to the bonus balance minutes after the transaction is complete. Players who want to deposit using another currency, should check out the table that shows the currency and multiples for meeting the wagering requirements. The bonus funds are supposed to be played through 20 times before cashing out and dozens of games have been included on the list of eligible titles. Canceling the bonus will not only result in the immediate removal of the bonus funds, but also the winnings accumulated since it was awarded. Those who choose to make the most of this welcome package, should know that they have no longer than seven days to meet the rollover requirements. Different games have a different stake percentage contribution, so it is recommended to stick to slot machines, because they are by far the most effective. Ideally, players should focus on the task at hand and only after the bonus funds have been cleared to apply for other bonuses and in role in new promotions. Those who don't have the patience and find other campaigns attractive can sign up and the corresponding bonuses will be added to their account. They will be queued and released one at the time, but there is the risk of failing to meet the wagering requirements in time. If the deadline passes and players still have bonus funds not cleared in their account, the money and resulting winnings will be forfeited.
from
via Casinoreviews

I have been looking at placing a bet on Trumps exit date odds but some of the odds seems so high I'm doubting there validity. For Instance there is an option to place a lay bet on Trumps exit for 2019 at odds of 8.8, does that mean if Trump is still president in 2020 I could potentially bet $1000 and get a payout of $8800 on the laybet? Also what is liability? and why are there multiple odds for the same bet such as 8.4, 8.6 and 8.8 all on the same line? forgive my ignorance I am very new to the betting exchange. https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.129097136

Hi, I've been programming bots for betfair for well over 10 years. I don't have an exact count but I believe I've built well over 70 programs that bet on betfair. Last year there were about 10 and this year, so far, I've finished two.
Some example projects I've built.

1. Matching multiples markets on the exchange with the markets that drive them and exploiting the wrong prices. e.g. Wimbledon winning double Djokovic/S. Wiliams @ 5 but Djokovic to win is @ 3 and Serena @ 4 so the actual price for the double should be 12, so lay here is hugely profitable.
2. Scraping of NBA live scores from ESPN and feeding them into a custom built monte carlo model and placing bets from that. The program was profitable in 2011/12 and 2012/13, break even before premium charge on 2013/14 and lost money after that. The mathematician that built the original model wasn't able to improve it so we quit from that project.
3. A cricket sniping program that connects with an old style nokia phone (buttons and a big battery are an absolute must have) and a person on the field send the information about wickets and other event to the program the other person controls. e.g. If team A scores a 6, place a back bet at the current top price. The idea here was to exploit the lag on TV and various scoring sites.
4. Cross matching betfair prices with matchbook. The project is on hold currently because of some sporadic errors with matchbook (1 in about 10k) that caused us to misinterpret the position and lose a serious amount of money.

If you have any ideas for a program, or if you just want an opinion on the profitability of your idea drop me a message and I'll give you my input on the feasibility and the approximate price and time involved in building such a program, either by me or someone else.
If anyone wants I can give them links to my upwork and elance profiles so they can see my references there.
Best regards, grocika

Alright, so this is probably going to sound like one of those stupid con work from home things at first, but hear me out.
I'm interested in starting up a business to exploit arbitrage opportunities in online, live sports betting. The general idea is to exploit inconsistencies in odds across different betting exchanges to place bets that return a profit no matter what the outcome. Especially with in game betting with odds rapidly changing, there are opportunities every now and then to make a guaranteed 0-1% return on investment. Not a huge amount, but with a program to automatically monitor and place bets and hundreds of markets with millions of dollars a day, there is plenty of money to be made.
I have written a proof of concept trading program to analyse possible trades and highlight situations where they would occur, and am working on the bit required to automatically place these bets.
The problem is, because of strange laws in Australia, Australian residents cannot bet on live matches over the internet (whereas almost every other country in the world, excluding the U.S., can). Australian residents can bet over the phone, but for such a system this is too slow to make any money. Thus it is both illegal and impractical (since all accounts need to be verified using some form of ID, I can't just claim to live in another country) for me to personally have an account that can bet on live matches.
Thus, I need somebody living in a country that is not Australia or the U.S., preferably the U.K., to setup the betting accounts and maintain responsibility for them. I will then deposit money in the accounts and direct the betting program (which will be running on a server in the U.K. so it is close to the exchange) to use them to conduct the live betting. This would involve signing up the accounts in their name, and then completing the verification check at a post office. I am willing to offer $100 (Australian... pounds are roughly half that) for setting up and verifying the accounts, and then ongoing 3% commission of net winnings on the accounts. All you have to do it set up the account and verify it.
You'll also probably need a paypal account or something similarly easy for me to pay you with. Additionally, if you already use online betting services it might not work; I'm not sure if you can hold multiple accounts, would have to check the ToS.
"Is this some scam to bet money on accounts with other people holding the liability?" No. The exchanges I will be using (betfair and betdaq are the main two) will never let you bet more money than you have deposited in the account. I cannot run up a liability and have it under your name.
"Whose money are you using to bet? Do I need to pay you anything?" My own money. I am not asking for any investment of any sort. If I do need investment I have other sources to go for rather than asking people over the internet for money.
"Is this some scam to bet money on rigged matches / some other illegal betting and let other people take the blame if found out?" No. I'm more than happy to explain more in detail the betting process.
If interested, send me a message on reddit.
TL;DR I have a program to make money on live betting, which anybody in any country except the one I am in can do. Please help.

Alright, so this is probably going to sound like one of those stupid con work from home things at first, but hear me out.
I'm interested in starting up a business to exploit arbitrage opportunities in online, live sports betting. The general idea is to exploit inconsistencies in odds across different betting exchanges to place bets that return a profit no matter what the outcome. Especially with in game betting with odds rapidly changing, there are opportunities every now and then to make a guaranteed 0-1% return on investment. Not a huge amount, but with a program to automatically monitor and place bets and hundreds of markets with millions of dollars a day, there is plenty of money to be made.
I have written a proof of concept trading program to analyse possible trades and highlight situations where they would occur, and am working on the bit required to automatically place these bets. The problem is, because of strange laws in Australia, Australian residents cannot bet on live matches over the internet (whereas almost every other country in the world, excluding the U.S., can). Australian residents can bet over the phone, but for such a system this is too slow to make any money. Thus it is both illegal and impractical (since all accounts need to be verified using some form of ID, I can't just claim to live in another country) for me to personally have an account that can bet on live matches.
Thus, I need somebody living in a country that is not Australia or the U.S., preferably the U.K., to setup the betting accounts and maintain responsibility for them. I will then deposit money in the accounts and direct the betting program (which will be running on a server in the U.K. so it is close to the exchange) to use them to conduct the live betting. This would involve signing up the accounts in their name, and then completing the verification check at a post office. I am willing to offer $100 (Australian... pounds are roughly half that) for setting up and verifying the accounts, and then ongoing 3% commission of net winnings on the accounts. All you have to do it set up the account and verify it.
You'll also probably need a paypal account or something similarly easy for me to pay you with. Additionally, if you already use online betting services it might not work; I'm not sure if you can hold multiple accounts, would have to check the ToS.
"Is this some scam to bet money on accounts with other people holding the liability?" No. The exchanges I will be using (betfair and betdaq are the main two) will never let you bet more money than you have deposited in the account. I cannot run up a liability and have it under your name.
"Whose money are you using to bet? Do I need to pay you anything?" My own money. I am not asking for any investment of any sort. If I do need investment I have other sources to go for rather than asking people over the internet for money.
"Is this some scam to bet money on rigged matches / some other illegal betting and let other people take the blame if found out?" No. I'm more than happy to explain more in detail the betting process.
"Does this app contravene the sites ToS?" No. Both sites encourage or at least expect algorithmic betting or custom programs to bet; BetDAQ for example has a developer API with documentation, and levels of access specifying how many calls you can make within a certain timeframe (which are quite generous; and you can apply for a sum each month for higher limits). Betfair has something similar.
If interested, send me a message on reddit.
TL;DR I have a program to make money on live betting, which anybody in any country except the one I am in can do. Please help.