How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
That's all you need to know. So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either.
THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:
Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because...
ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.
Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects. Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all...
Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):
https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
$APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
$CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
$TLRY gets a UK deal
$TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price. THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons:
NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.
IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF- do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere.
SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.
Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent. Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof:https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure.
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Emotional involvement has never been this high, please understand the risk involved.
First of all, I can't wait to be berated in the comments. I'm gonna be blunt, I have seen a whole lot of dumb shit over the last week. A lot more than normal. And compounding all of that is an unprecedented amount of legitimate emotional involvement here. So let me get started by saying outright that people getting emotionally involved with trading stocks always lose. Short, long, whatever. It doesn't matter if you're a 19 year old throwing in your life savings or Bill fucking Ackman not being able to admit he was wrong with Herbalife. Letting your emotions be a major factor in trading is a fantastic way to lose money. And a whole lot of you are really emotionally involved with this GME, AMC, whatever. To the point: I am not making a buy/sell/hold/whatever recommendation. I have no special insight in to what's happening with GME or whatever else. What I can tell you is that it is for sure not worth $300. So let's dispel one quick thing: this is not David vs Goliath. It also isn't the little man vs hedge funds or WSB vs big finance. It might have started out that way, but if you only read one thing read this:
Many of the big retail brokerages, including Robinhood, route a lot of their customer orders to Citadel Securities, so it ends up seeing a large percentage of retail trades in U.S. stocks. It can see if retail traders are mostly buying or mostly selling or mostly pretty balanced. You might expect—I certainly expected—to see that retail traders were buying more than they were selling this week. The stock seemed to be rocketing up on frenzied retail sentiment, and the posters on WallStreetBets were all claiming that they would never sell and keep buying until it hit $1,000. But here’s what Citadel Securities’ retail flow looked like in GameStop this week: 1 Graphic here Retail investors were net buyers on Monday but net sellers for the rest of the week (through yesterday), and all in all quite balanced: About 49.8% of retail orders (that Citadel Securities saw) were to buy, and 50.2% were to sell. What do you make of that? One reading would be: “Retail investors on Reddit might have started the GameStop rally, but they’re not piling into this stock now, and the price action this week is coming from professionals.” Or as one Twitter user put it, “past the retail ignition, the rocket ship was mostly intra-fast money warfare.”
So, just to be clear about this, there is massive institutional money on both sides of this trade, and retail is a toddler sitting at the world series of poker. Understand that melvin does not need to cover in the way a retail trader needs to cover. You, and everyone else, have no idea what Melvin's position looks like, and they can reorganize and exit a position before you ever knew it happened. You don't know how hedged they are, you don't know what their collateral looks like, and you don't know if they've covered and restructured a short at last week's prices. You simply don't know. You only know what's been presented in the news, which is almost certainly bullshit. This thing could come to an end as fast as it started and you won't know what happened for weeks. You might go take a shit at 1pm today and come back to GME trading at $16 because Ken Griffin got on CNBC and announced they restructured their short at an average price of $200, and were happy to sit on it. Make no mistake, you'll get kicked in the nuts and have your ball taken away faster than you can comprehend. Emotions The problem with this whole "strike back at wall street" narrative is that lots of you are getting really worked up over this trade. Losing money sucks, but losing money and feeling like you got shit on by the big guy is going to hurt. This isn't a moral crusade to them, it's 25 billion dollars. So if you're out here putting money and emotions on the line that you can't afford to lose there won't be a happy ending. Want to fight the good fight against wall street? Write your congressman, Tweet AOC or Ted Cruz, get you a fucking picket sign and go wave it around on the streeet. But dropping money on GME that you need in life ain't gonna change anything except your net worth. TLDR: 1) know and understand who is playing this game. And that they have access to tools, leverage, and markets that you do not. You're playing Le Chiffre at Casino Royale right now, you might think you're James Bond but there's a good chance that you're just the fat dude in the corner. 2) Short squeezes end fast. As fast as they started. If you're new to trading then understand buying GME at this price can mean all of your money will evaporate before you had time to make a TikTock about it. 3) Get your emotions out of play here. This whole nonsense political narrative is only going to cause you to make trading mistakes. Can't handle that? then maybe it's not a good idea to sit at this table. Lastly, if you really just can't get yourself out of the whole "fight the hedge funds" nonsense, at least understand that you're spending money that you likely won't get back. If that's worth it to you then have at it. But don't fool yourself in to thinking otherwise. E: Completely unrelated: I hate reddit awards, reddit doesn't need your money. Go buy like a hundredth of a share of VTI or something.
Explanation for noobs who don't quite understand what's going on...
Mods: does DD tag apply? If not change it. I wrote this in response to someone elsewhere who asked simply:
So they're betting against the company? Like, they have no faith in them? Investing like this makes one feel horrible.
Yeah. There are three ways you can short. 1) You buy an option with a predetermined end date with the RIGHT to sell a stock at a certain price (depending on how much you want to pay determines the price.) If a stock is $10 and you expect it to drop to $5 in 6 months, you might buy a $9, 10 month expiry "put" (right to sell at price) option. This might cost you 50c per share. IF you're even slightly right, ie it drops to any price lower than $8.49 before expiry you made 1c per share. You can also change your mind and sell the option (either more (profit) or less (loss) than 50c/share). IF you're properly right, and it does drop to exactly $5 you make $3.5 per share. If it rises, or drops to any number above $8.50, you lose the price of the option (50c/share). 2) You're a big player. You call your buddies at Pension Fund X42 and say "Hey can I borrow those shares you have for x% interest and return them to you later?" A set timeframe may be set. I don't know for sure, but probably. Anyhow, Pension Fund X42 says "ok" because they aren't looking to sell them, so might as well make some interest on lending them. So you borrow them, and immediately sell them. You pay your daily interest to the pension fund, and you wait. When the price drops, and you decide that you've made enough, you buy them back and return them. You keep the difference in prices whatever that may be, minus the interest. If you're wrong... You're still obliged to return the shares to Pension Fund X42. So at some point you have to decide to eat a loss and buy the shares back. 3) You're a big player and you are ok with a bit of lawbreaking, you Naked Short Sell. This is great because it's cheaper! No interest payments! Here, you simply sell shares you don't have, and buy the imaginary shares you just created back later so that the number of shares on issue doesn't get too far out of whack and you don't get investigated. Any gap between your sell price and buy price is profit or loss depending on which way it goes. What's happened right now is mostly a combination of 2 and 3. I'm sure there is a bit of 1, but 1 only causes predictable losses (Like the cost of playing a hand at a casino. You only lose the amount you bet if the cards don't go your way.) So the risk with 2 and 3 is that because you're obliged to buy back the shares at some point, if they go up, when you have to quit, you have to pay the current market price and your actions can make the price go up even more. Now you're in a short squeeze. You are obliged to buy but the price keeps going up every time you do. It's entirely possible that others see the price going up and buy, so you're now competing to buy a limited number of shares with everyone else. So the price goes higher. Your losses are potentially infinite. What's slightly different between this particular short squeeze and all the others is: 1) The dumb fucks naked short sold AT LEAST 40% more shares than ever existed. They're obliged to buy back more shares than is possible. The only way out of that self-made trap is a complicated mess of desperately buying, returning, rebuying from the people you borrowed them from, and returning them with losses at every step. Imagine if I sold you 10 cars, but only delivered 6. You're standing there with your wtf face and I say "Hey! how much would you sell those 4 cars for?" You can name your price at this point. I pay it. Then I "finish" my "10 car delivery." 2) Retail traders are acting as one single semi-coordinated hive, loosely behaving similarly to what would in prior short squeezes, be a competitor hedge fund. They own a lot of the shares the hedge funds (HFs) NEED to buy - but they're not selling. They're actively cheering for the HFs bankruptcy while watching the price of the stock they hold skyrocket. Only other HF billionaires are allowed to do that and get away with it. . 2a) HFs can be negotiated with. If you're really, really getting bent over and fucked, and you grovel enough, you can usually cut a deal where they stop trying to fuck you. If they won't talk to you, they'll often talk to your bank/brokesome other bigger player that can convince them that your bankruptcy will also cause significant losses or bankruptcy of another party they're not trying to fuck and they might like to have as friends one day. "You quit this, and we'll owe you one." It's always good to have favours to call. . 2b) The self proclaimed retards on WSB can't be negotiated with. They don't need favours. They don't care if you go bankrupt or there's collateral damage. They don't give a fuck about any of them. For the most part they only hold a few hundred shares each max - and also for the most part, they're playing with their own money that they can actually afford to lose even if it hurts for a year or two. How do you negotiate with, or swat a million wasps stinging you? You can't. Edit. Thanks for all the awards guys! I'll soon have enough to make a Tiara and become your Яetard Prince for the day! I was actually expecting posts telling my how wrong I am. I only think I know what the fuck is going on most of the time and usually figure out later that it wasn't. I'd like to thank the academy, and my parents who never believed in me, and Scruffy, my first dog, who, like WSB, played chicken with truck, and, and, and... Also. I figure since this is so popular, I might as well nominate my suggestion for the inevitable u/deepfuckingvalue movie. It's fairly likely to be seen as a sequel to the Wolf of Wall St, so.... "The Fox/Foxes of Main Street" ? Yeah, nah? Edit 2 NOTE To all the people trying to PM me for advice: I have no fucking idea what WILL happen next. I just think I cobbled together enough of what HAS happened to explain it somewhat. Ie: I'm more like a journalist. Would you ask a journalist for stock advice? (please don't answer yes...)
It's here boys and girls! The Cayo Perico DLC has been released!
"Unlike previous Heists, there is no specific style when it comes to approaching Cayo Perico.
Once you’ve gathered the necessary gear, you can choose to complete as much (or as little) set-up and planning as you want – though be warned that these decisions will, in turn, affect the way the action unfolds. If you want to call in an airstrike or use a cutting torch to burn through steel beams, for example, you would be well advised to put the time in beforehand. Once all the groundwork is laid down, you can nail down your final details before approaching Cayo Perico. These choices include how you infiltrate and escape the island, your weapons loadouts, air support, and even the operation’s time of day. As a result, no two approaches are alike on subsequent playthroughs. And repeat visits will allow you to heist valuable artifacts and other valuables as they become available. There is also a load of extra opportunities you can use to play to your advantage, such as breaking into storage lockups to raid hidden stashes of cash and contraband to bolster your bottom-line and fatten up your take. These chances and the tools necessary to complete them will rarely be found in the same place twice – some are only accessible when playing with multiple players, so joining up with friends is very much encouraged." This Megathread will serve as the place to discuss all things related to the DLC. We will be updating this as more information is released, so keep checking back. The Heist works very similarly to the Casino Heist. You have to hack cameras and scope out locations. Important Links: (Added once they become available)
Official Trailer Newswire Article Patch Notes Availability/Size: Playstation - LIVE - 6.8GB Xbox - LIVE - 6.6GB PC - Live - 9.3GB Other Links: DLC release Crew Event info Weekly Update Thread Simple Question Thread Still Slippin' Radio Channel Guide Misc Info: Kosatka(sub) is $2.2 million to start, up to $9.8 million with everything, and IS DRIVEABLE! Two new vehicles available with the Kosatka: Sparrow (Small Helicopter) Can be equipped with machine guns or missiles. Kraken Avisa (Small Sub) Island is not available in Free Mode No New vehicles on SSA or LM at release. These vehicles will be dripfed to us over the coming weeks and months. 6 new vehicles available on release day, the Submarine and 5 more with trade prices unlocked by completing the Heist. Link to new vehicle pics and prices. Winky (Jeep) $825,000 - $1,100,000 Kurtz 31Patrol Boat(Gunboat) $2,216,250 - $2,955,000 RO-86 (Bomber) $3,262,500 - $4,250,000 Annihilator Stealth (Helicopter) $2,902,500 - $3,870,000 Toreador (CaSub) $3,660,000 Longfin (Boat) $2,125,000 New weapons: Perico Pistol Military Rifle - $397,500 Combat Shotgun - $295,000
The Free Vehicle from the Heist Challenge will be Available this Friday and will be the Dinka Veto Classic go-kart. You MUST claim the vehicle between the 18th and 20th of December or it will no longer be free.
The /wallstreetbets GME retail investors vs the 0.1% situation has lead me to a place of clarity. The game is rigged, and the owners of the system will react with haste and break any laws they must to protect their cartel. For those not following the event - Retail investors, realised the shares of GME and some other companies were heavily shorted and in short supply, so they started buying in the hope of forcing a short squeeze (whereby the holder of the shorts will then have to buy more stock to cover their shorts, sending the price through the roof, an example is Volkswagen [VW] in the 2000's). This is perfectly legal. - the plan worked, GME went from $2 to $470 in a short space of time. - Melvin Capital, a Hedge fund took a massive (likely $6 billion) short position in GME and faced closure if the bet went against them, they were losing money at a fast rate and got a bail out last week by other wall street Hedge funds. - Melvin Capital then went on CNBC and other networks to reveal they had closed their short positions, it's highly unlikely as the options volume did not back up their claim, they were simply spreading disinformation, again this is perfectly legal - the retail investors at /wallstreetbets simply would not give up, they kept buying, the end goal could have seen the stock reach $5K based on the VW scenario. - the 0.1% moved to then protect the 0.1% from losing money by using the stock brokerages they own or control(Robinhood, TD, IB and all the other big players) to firstly prevent the retail investors buying more stock, you could simply not buy these stocks, you could only sell, some companies even forcibly closed down open options positons even in the absense of margin calls, so your account is in good standing with enough liquidity and they decide which stock you can have and which you can not, in this time big institutions are allowed to buy as much of this stock as they desire, just the retail traders are locked out of the casino. This is highly illegal and known as market manipulation, it also flies in the face of the idea that we have a free market. - people like AOC, Elon Musk, Chamath have all come out on the site of the retail traders at /wallstreetbets - Interactive Brokers chairman and founder Thomas Peterffy goes on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” an is literally weeping, explaining he feels hurt that his large, moneyed 0.1% friends are losing money due to the retail investors, oh the horror, how can these small investors make my friends lose money? Don't they know the implications of their actions? The horror. The guys at /wallstreetbets simply did not understand that in our world only old money gets to make real money, the little guy must be shut down and should never have a slice of the action, all he gets is inflation and a 9 to 5 job, plus side hustle if he/she's lucky. If the little guy ever finds a way to gain an advantage the loophole is quickly closed. - the SEC Chair then threatens to investigate the redditors on /wallstreetbets by tracking down their IP numbers with the help of reddit - The /wallstreetbets discord server is banned. All the years I talked trash about bitcoin, I apologise, now I genuinely understand the value of having a system not controlled by the government, where they can not on a whim decide to inflate the money supply and bail out their friends, while you carry the load in the form of additional taxes and inflation.
$AMC $GME $BB ALL HAVE COMMON WITH THIS STOCK... $SNDL
Guys, I wrote a new DD but WSB moderators keep removing it and all other SNDL posts for some odd reason so here's the link posted on /SNDL . Please share and crosspost to other subs. https://www.reddit.com/SNDL/comments/l9rbri/im_convinced_sndl_is_on_the_verge_of_a_big_merge SNDL OR SUNDIAL GROWERS is a debt-free cannabis company currently trading at .49 cents, more than 98% down since its ipo price of $13 back in 2019. It's not just SNDL tho, the ENTIRE CANNABIS SECTOR has been pressed by short sellers since its peak in 2018. But these shortsellers are getting scared and shitting their shorts (pun intended) cuz of the recent mega squeezes that we've witnessed in GME, BB, AMC etc. But also cuz Biden/Kamala administration is in talks of legalizing it on fed level. So GME, BB (which i bought at $4.10 and wrote a DD on it back in November) and other stocks have these key things in common with SNDL when they were about to pop :
GOLDEN Cross 2. Highly Shorted 3. Positive PR 4. Expanding Market 5. Under $10 stock 6. Actively traded by young traders
[UPDATE Jan 28] ALL THIS PRESSURE ON ROBINHOOD AND OTHER FRAUD CASINO APPS TO REOPEN TRADING RESTRICTIONS TOMORROW WILL CAUSE OUR STONKS TO EXPLODE LIKE PENT UP DIARRHEA 🌋🌋🌋🌋 House always wins but not if we all unite and fight against it. Restricting our baby penny $SNDL from trading was truly a blessing in disguise. It has now caught the attention of the mass media and we're getting free coverage along with $GME, $AMC etc. Even Dave Portnoy (Barstool guy) is ticker tagging $SNDL on his tweets who is also in the center of all this sh!tstorm. So with that said, we launching this rocket very soon! BTFD but most importantly DON'T F*CKNG SELL! *I'm not a financial advisor
There's a case for GME short-term, but please stop making things up
Position: 30 GME @ 179 avg cost basis, still holding because it's not a loss until you sell. Obligatory 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 I've been a longtime lurker on this sub since it was <1m degenerates, finally clicked the join button around Dec/Jan. It's great to see many new redditors take an interest in WSB, but for the love of Elon Musk, READ THE POSTING GUIDELINES AND STOP MAKING THINGS UP!!! There is a case for GME, given the new CEO/CTO, console cycle, and massive short interest/short position (even at the real 42-43% SI and 21m SP). Those are factual events and numbers. What isn't the case are bagholders who have less of an understanding of the stock market than u/1r0nyman. It's one thing to hype up GME as a resurgent mecca in retail. It's another thing to not understand how certain metrics are calculated, when/how data is reported, and blatantly make up numbers because it fits a delusional reality where GME is going to be $10000/share. I'm not saying GME isn't ripe for another squeeze, but be reasonable. Think about what certain share prices mean and the odds it could ever reach such a height.
Let me put it into context:
GME Price
Market Cap
Comparable
$1000
69.7B
BP, Twilio, Anthem
$10000
697B
Alibaba, Visa + MC, JP Morgan + Wells Fargo
$69420
4,789,980,000,000
25% US Annual GDP, Apple + Microsoft + Amazon
When you dispute data from Bloomberg Terminal, the holy grail of Wall Street trading, you've lost the investing game. It's not even a casino-level bet, it's throwing cash into a fire pit and pouring piss martinis over it. Don't downvote someone because they disagree with your reality, challenge them. We all have opinions, and we can think the other degenerate's opinion is flat out dumb. But if your DD doesn't hold water, then it truly is dumb.
tl;dr It's great you love GME as a stock, I hope they do great and think they'll make a great turnaround. Just don't be untethered from reality, follow posting guidelines, and don't make up data
Disclaimer: I'm not a professional in this field. This is not financial advice. I'm not even owning GME or any stocks for that matter but I'm fascinated by this corrupt casino called stock market. For every GME stock people buy through the wrong brokers, a GME stock becomes available for borrowing. We can pump GME forever but there is no day of reckoning to fight for and the hedgies know that. They know that interest is already fading and weak hands are selling and they don't even have to buy those stocks. They are happy when it's falling as that's the plan all along. And even if all short squeezers went to more honest brokers that don't lend out your stocks (or at least give you the interest paid on that lending which must be insanely high), this attack could be more effective but hedgies could still leverage up and up and up. There are probably just two ways for the squeeze to still succeed:
Pump it to insane levels where hedgies can't cover it anymore for real. If you had asked anybody a month ago if $400 would be insane, he would probably have approved though, so where is this "insane"? $5k? $50k?
GME steps up and locks in its value, preventing insolvency indefinitely.
People own twice as many stocks as there are in total, so as soon as hedgies try to deleverage, they have to buy GME. Twice. Just to get out of this bet. I think the knock-out failed but going for the full twelve rounds can still work but not without GME taking action. With GME taking action, a knock-out could be tried again. Am I wrong? How long do you think shorters can stay afloat? At which price point? How can I buy GME without my broker turning around, lending out my share???
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Bitcoin and speculative stock investing are dark mirrors of each other and the whole system is rotten.
Hey guys. Not entirely sure if this is the right place for this post, but here goes. Since the GameStop short squeeze and the Elon Musk Bitcoin pump happened, there's been a lot on my mind about both Bitcoin and regular stocks and I need to get this off my chest. One thing above all has really been bothering me and I couldn't put it into words until recently: how rotten the whole system is and how it allows a minority to earn enough money to never need to work again. Whether it's Bitcoin or speculative stocks, it works out very similarly. People throw money and hope they get lucky, no better than any gambling. When they win, it's not because they were smarter or did some great service to society. They only had to install an app on their phone, go through some KYC and throw money at their crypto or stock of choice. Money is a currency used to determine how much access to society's resources someone has. The more money you have, the more resources you can access. This can be better apartments, lambos, yachts, mansions, whatever. The winners of crypto or stocks are just gamblers, they get a disproportionately high share of society's resources without creating anything of value. And then there's people like me. I work a day job, working hard every day and trying to improve my skills, hoping to get recognized and achieve some measure of success in life, yet I get a pittance while all these gamblers win big. To be clear here, I'm not salty because I didn't invest money or lost it. I don't believe in either speculative stock investing or crypto "investing". I realize that speculative investments have a far higher chance to lose money, and losing money can really hurt you and your life prospects. With both Bitcoin and speculative stock investing, what happens in practice isn't very different. They're glorified casinos and the winners are set for life, and it really grinds my gears because they didn't do anything to earn it, while I'm sitting at a desk day in and day out, working hard yet barely getting anything out of it. But what's even worse is that the winners' wealth is created through exploitative means. For someone to win money in the casinos, someone else has to lose. Usually a lot of someones. And the losers? They can be drastically affected by their loss. It's even more sad when you realize that most of them were suckered into playing the game with false promises: "Bitcoin/Gamestop is guaranteed to moon! Invest now and you'll never need to work again!" and so on. Then when things fail and the hysteria ends, a lot of people are left holding the bag. Some turn to substance abuse, others commit suicie, yet others double down and throw more money at the casino in the vain hopes that they'll win the next time. And even if speculative investments had a 50% or higher chance of making you a winner, what would that mean for our society? I'm no economist, but I'm pretty sure that our society would start running low on resources as people buy more luxuries they couldn't afford before and this would result in price inflation. Which in the long-term, would nullify the winners' wealth and make everyone else worse off. It's all so upsetting, and very sad what our society really values. Sorry if this was too long or rambly, but I really needed to get this off my chest. Let me know what you think in the comments. Edit: This might not have been clear to some, but I'm not a Bitcoin supporter. I know how it works and why it's terrible. Edit 2: Well, my free day of shitposting is ending, so I'm wrapping up this thread. Thank you all so much for your responses! There were many interesting discussions, even with coiners. I might respond more tomorrow, but not as much as today.
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