The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 15 NFL DFS contests! Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Justin Herbert (DK $17,700, FD $16,000)
Pivot: Darren Waller (DK $14,100, FD $12,000)
Contrarian #1: Derek Carr (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)
Contrarian #2: Austin Ekeler (DK $15,600, FD $13,500)
FD/DK Value: Josh Jacobs (DK $8,800 FLEX, FD $13,000)
DK Punts: Hunter Henry ($5,800 FLEX) and Kalen Ballage ($2,400 FLEX if Ekeler OUT)
We’ve got myriad skill position injuries to monitor ahead of tonight’s showdown, but thankfully neither QB carries an injury designation. Despite the Chargers being 3-point road dogs,
Justin Herbert is the chalk at CPT and should be in most of the roster builds that get clicked in before lock. While we could argue there’s some reason to consider fading the gunslinger rookie (three consecutive games under 20 DK points), I’m much less excited about the prospect of rolling out
Derek Carr in the top spot. Carr is coming off his two best fantasy performances of 2020, but I have some trust issues after his putrid performance in Week 12
u/ATL.
Both
Keenan Allen and
Mike Williams are game-time decisions, and if they sit, I’ll definitely be pivoting more to Carr and TE
Darren Waller as the core of my builds, mixing in shares of whomever gets the start at RB for the Chargers, be that Austin Ekeler (questionable but expected to play with a quad injury) or
Kalen Ballage. Right now, it looks like Ekeler should be good to go, but Ballage would be an obscenely good value if he gets back the workhorse role he had in the weeks before Ekeler returned.
Chargers pass catchers to consider (if either or both of Allen and Williams are inactive) include TE
Hunter Henry (a solid play in any event) WR
Tyron Johnson – who finished Week 14 with 6-55-1 on seven targets from Herbert – and even
Jalen Guyton, a downfield target who’s had 40 targets and a 21-377-3 receiving line this season. He’s a “final piece” type of plug in who could exploit the Raiders secondary issues.
We could also see more offensive snaps and a handful or targets for rookie
K.J. Hill, who fellow former Ohio St. Buckeye Cris Carter
said was a steal in the 2020 NFL draft.
The Raiders have placed Henry Ruggs III on the COVID-19 reserve list, so he’s unavailable for this showdown. That gives
Nelson Agholor a slight bump and greatly increases the chances of a big game for
Hunter Renfrow. Rookie WR
Bryan Edwards, not targeted in Sunday’s loss to Indy and without a catch in the Jets game, might also be a factor. He and
Zay Jones are fringe plays at best.
As for kickers and defenses, I trust Raiders K
Dylan Carlson a lot more than Chargers K
Michael Badgley, who hasn’t scored in the past two weeks. Carlson is even cheaper on DK. With three negative DK point performances in their last three games, the
Raiders DST are more expensive and have a lot less to offer from a gamebreaking perspective than the
Chargers DST. But if the Bolts are without their top two WRs, they have to be considered in the occasional GPP.
Week 15 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the
WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Include Darren Waller somewhere. He’s the most involved player for both teams and is on the field for almost every Raiders offensive snap.
DON’T: Ignore the Chargers inactives – it’s going to have a huge effect on Herbert’s effectiveness and the players who impact this showdown.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Justin Herbert
- Darren Waller
- Derek Carr
- Austin Ekeler (if active)
- Josh Jacobs
- Keenan Allen (questionable, GTD)
- Nelson Agholor
- Hunter Henry
- Mike Williams (questionable, GTD)
- Tyron Johnson (bump if Keenan Allen sits)
- Hunter Renfrow
- Dylan Carlson
- Jalen Guyton (bump if Mike Williams sits)
- Kalen Ballage (huge bump if Ekeler sits)
- Chargers DST
- Justin Jackson
- Devontae Booker
- Raiders DST
- Foster Moreau
- Zay Jones
- Bryan Edwards
- K.J. Hill (bump if Allen/Williams sit)
- Michael Badgley
- Donald Parham
- Jason Witten
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