Sports Betting Lines & Odds at Linesmaker Sportsbook

Box Score provided by ESPN

Team	1	2	3	4	T
Toledo	3	17	14	14	48
Akron	10	0	7	0	17

/CFB Made with the /CFB Game Thread Generator

The sportsbook’s take from unskilled NFL football teaser players is much higher than their take from unskilled straight bettors. An unskilled straight bettor will win about 50% of his plays (ignoring pushes) whereas an unskilled 6-point, 2-team NFL football teasers player will win only 47.8% of his plays (again, ignoring pushes). So, just as an unskilled casino gambler is better off playing craps than blackjack, an unskilled football bettor is better off playing straight bets rather than teasers. However, just as skilled card players can beat blackjack, skilled teaser players can beat NFL teasers.
To qualify for a good six-point teaser play, the extra six points should increase a team’s chance of covering by about one-fourth and an extra ten points should increase a team’s chance of covering by about one-third. In this statement we find the key to successful teaser wagering. The trick to beating teasers is to make your extra points count. You want the probability that the extra points will turn an ATS loser into a teaser winner to be as high as possible. For example, when teasing a team from +6’ to +12’ with a 6-point teaser, there should be at least a 25% chance that the team will lose by 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12 points. The losing margins from 7 to 12 points turn an ATS loser into a teaser winner. Similarly, when teasing a team from –2’ to +7’ in a 10-point teaser, there should be at least a 33% chance that the team wins by 1 or 2 points, ties, or loses by fewer than 7 points – thus turning an ATS loser into a teaser winner. After all, this is why you are using a teaser. If your team is not going to need the extra points, why play a teaser?
Because all games in which the result falls with the teaser point range are teaser winners no matter which side you used, it is important to use games whose actual result will very likely fall close to the Vegas line. This is the overarching theme of teaser success. There are a number of ways to identify and isolate such games and this is the subject of the next section. When NFL football playing teasers, it is better to use teams that will keep it close to the line. Teams that are good candidates to use in teaser plays are teams that play sound defense and don’t turn the ball over on offense. They have a veteran quarterback who does not throw risky passes. Good teaser teams have veteran coaches who preach sound fundamentals. Good teaser teams play the entire 60 minutes. They do not get discouraged and “mail in” the fourth quarter if they find themselves down by double digits. Good teaser teams are reliable and consistent. The reason why the most teaser players lose money is that they try to pick the ATS winner and then play it in a teaser. Note that all the proper teaser strategies do not involve picking the side winner. The major downfall of many teaser players is that they handicap the sides first and then use the sides they selected in teaser plays. Picking a good team to use in a teaser is completely different from picking a team that will cover the spread. To handicap teasers, you should not try to pick the ATS winner of the game, you should try to pick the ATSp6 winner of the game. If you think you have the ATS winner, don’t play a teaser, play a straight bet. A good rule to follow when beting the NFL is…
If you think that the actual result will be close to the line, play a teaser. If you think the result will be far from the line, play a straight bet.
Here we present a number of general NFL football teaser better Dos and Don’ts. These are general rules-of-thumb. It is challenging to find a teaser play in which all of the Dos and none of the Don’ts are adhered to. The key is to understand the philosophy behind these general guidelines when selecting teaser plays. We’ll start with the Dos.
DO use teams that play the entire 60 minutes. Teams that get discouraged when trailing at the half and effectively “throw in the towel” are not good teams to use in teaser plays. Select a team that gives 100% the entire game on both sides of the ball. This is especially true near the end of the season when some teams might have given up altogether.
DO use teams with good, fresh defenses. With an extra six points the key is not to allow the opponent to score frequently. If the defense was on the field a lot in a close game last week they might be a bit nicked up and not fully recovered. This is especially true if the game last week was a key divisional match-up.
DO tease the OPPONENT of a favorite that plays conservatively with a lead. Some coaches play very conservatively with a lead – especially on the road. They run the ball almost exclusively in an attempt to keep the clock moving. This will keep the game from getting out of hand. For example, taking a 9 point dog to +15 is a good play when the favorite is going to play conservatively with, say, a ten-point lead.
DO take the underdog in games that have a low total. When the final score is expected to be something like 14-13, 20-17, 17-14, 20-14 etc., taking the dog plus the extra points is a good strategy.
DO take a home favorite that has the personnel and the mindset to secure the victory if not the cover. These teams do not like to get embarrassed in front of their home fans. The Ravens have been a terrific team to tease at home. They are disciplined and they are well coached.
DO know the current teaser records of every team in the league. There are good teaser teams and there are poor teaser teams. Knowing which are which is a key to successful teaser handicapping. Remember, the teaser rating of a team can be a strong function of whether they are playing at home and whether they are favored.
DO follow the teaser trends. One of the reasons that trend handicapping is scoffed at by some is that the linesmakers know the trends and adjust the line accordingly. However, very few people use teaser trends and there is no teaser-specific line – the line for the side is used in teaser bets. That is, the linesmakers can’t adjust the line for teasers without adjusting the line for the side. Therefore the linesmakers can’t adjust the number to prevent a good teaser bet withing making the side a good bet. This gives teaser players a significant advantage.
DO use teams that can protect their quarterback. A quarterback that is continually under pressure has the potential to fumble and throw interceptions. Remember, if your team does not suffer a negative takeaway margin, they are very likely to cover with extra points.
DO tease divisional match-ups. Teams within the same division know each other well and the linesmakers know how the teams match-up against each other. Hence the line for these games are, in general, more precise than the lines for inter-conference match-ups. This makes divisional match-ups better teaser plays, in general, than inter-conference match-ups. As evidence; since 1989, 31.73% of non-divisional regular season match-ups have come within 6 points of the line and 33.65% of all divisional regular season match-ups have come within 6 points of the line. The difference is not large, but it is statistically significant.
DO tease playoff games. The more precise the line the better a teaser play. Playoff games usually have no “inside information,” everything is revealed and everything is analyzed. In addition, there are usually only good teams in the NFL playoffs and the coaches are not going to be trying out a new scheme. As a result, playoff lines are more precise than regular season lines and this makes them better teaser plays. In the history of the database, 36.97% of playoff games have come within 6 points of the line, although this result is less statistically significant than the regular season results because the playoff data set contains only 165 games. Sports Data Query Group, in fact, has not lost a playoff teaser in two seasons.
DO NOT tease the dog vs a high scoring team that likes to throw the ball aggressively down the field. Teasing the dog against high-powered passing offenses like those of the Colts, Saints or Patriots is not a good idea as they can easily get over the extra points you are getting with a teaser.
DO NOT tease a team with an inexperienced quarterback. Fumbles and interceptions are the bane of teasers. Veteran quarterbacks will run out of bounds, slide feet first and throw the ball away when necessary. This might prevent a first down but it also prevents the dreaded interception or fumble return for a touchdown – the evil killers of teaser plays.
DO NOT handicap a side and then use it in a teaser for “insurance.” Teaser handicapping is very different than side handicapping. When handicapping a side, NY Jets –2 over Chicago for example, you ask yourself, is the Jets –2 or is Chicago +2 better than 52.4% to win. When handicapping teasers, the relevant questions are: is the Jets +4 better than a 72.4% play and are the Chicago +8 better than a 72.4% play. It’s completely different. In general, the reason why you play a side is that you feel the line is inaccurate and the reason you play a teaser is that the line is accurate.
DO NOT use road dogs vs a non-divisional opponent when they host a key divisional opponent the following week. Here we have a possible look-ahead situation. If the team gets down vs a non-divisional opponent on the road they may begin to look-ahead to next week’s divisional game and not concentrate on the task at hand. It would be frustrating to have teased a team from +3’ to +9’ and watch them lackadaisically go out on offense inside of two minutes trailing 10-21. DO NOT tease teams that were eliminated from the playoffs the week before. It is sometimes difficult to predict the effect of being eliminated from post-season play will have on a team. If you are a good enough handicapper to tell, play the team in a straight bet – not in a teaser.
DO NOT tease a team that has a key player injured. Teasers should be played in games where the result will be close to the line. It is difficult to predict how teams will respond to a key injury. If you think you know how the team will respond to the injury – play the side, do not use it in a teaser.
DO NOT tease a game where the weather is expected to be bad. Rain, wind and snow introduce intangibles that make the result more unpredictable. Remember, if the game goes as forecast, all teaser plays are winners. Only when the result is far away from the line does a teaser play potentially lose. Bad weather increases the chance of this occurring.
DO NOT tease a game in which a coach is trying out a new tactic or strategy. A new tactic may work very well or it may be a disaster. If you think you know, play the side. Do not use it in a teaser, as the extra points you get are not likely to make a difference and the extra points is why you are playing a teaser.
DO NOT tease a game in which a team is desperate. Desperate teams often employ drastic measures. They will go for it on fourth down in their own territory, try a fake punt, a double reverse, flea flickers, the halfback option, onside kicks, the statue of liberty and perhaps even the fumblerooski. All this leads to unpredictable results. When playing a teaser you want the game to go as forecast — if something unusual happens, it is potentially bad for teaser players.

Shortened training camp... shortened preseason... lots of roster moves... back-to-back-to-back games... all of these things should have a large impact on results.
Do you see any plays/edge because of this?
Will games be low scoring due to lack of practice.. or will games be high scoring due to lack of defensive practice/unity. More importantly.. are the linesmakers more likely to fade the total low or high?
How would you approach a back2back2back scenario? Martingale?
Any teams you will be betting/fading early due to roster transitions?
Edit: Sorry /sportsbook.. didn't know that kid was going to follow me here. Please disregard that portion of the comments.. it has nothing to do with /sportsbook.

I'm new to this whole "online gambling" thing, is there anything I should know before I place some bets?

Warning. This is going to be long, boring for most, and have some very bad math involved. I'm not trying to nail down the expectations right now, that's a much longer project than a down hour or two at work can produce. However, I think there's merit in going through this as a thought exercise with brute force math and rounded numbers. I'm not even sure that this deserves a posting, but I figured I'd share and see what y'all can add. :)
I'll be working with Atlanta against New Orleans in tomorrow's Thursday Night Football game. First, the players of note:
M. Ryan
R. White
J. Jones
H. Douglas
T. Gonzalez
J. Rodgers
M. Turner
J. Snelling
M. Ryan
I also ran numbers for DJ Davis and M. Palmer, but they're non-factors here and to be honest, I'm not even sure if they're playing tomorrow. I don't know shit about the Falcons, but it's irrelevant here.
First, the expected score for the Falcons is 30 (actually 29.75, but I rounded up) - A game total of 56, as 3.5 point favorites. First, we have to extract out the scoring via field goals. As a brute force beginning, I have Matt Bryant averaging 2.36 FGs per game in 2.82 attempts. Remember, there won't be any elegance to this method until the basic idea has been confirmed to be workable. That drops the number of points "available" to the rest of the team to 22.92. Divide that number by 7, and we have 3.27 TDs to work with.
Hope you're following along, because this might get ugly. Atlanta has been scoring 26.7 points/game. Because the expected score is 30, I adjusted all of the offensive numbers by a factor of *1.1236 - brute force, baby! - assuming that all of the numbers, really only yardage at this point, will scale at least reasonably similarly.
Applied to Matt Ryan's season averages, and combined with New Orleans' season averages for passing defense, that leaves Matt Ryan with an expected line of 30/43 for 335 yards. We'll get to TDs and INTs later.
Now, working with NFL snap counts (both for recent games and season-long), I divvied up those 335 passing yards among Atlanta's major players. Using the same ratios (again, produced from a combination of season-long snap counts and recent games), I also gave them reception counts.
To get the touchdowns, I started from 3.27. Again, brute force, whatever. Divvying those out among Atlanta's players is a lot harder than I was hoping for, because you can't go straight from targets or receptions or snap counts, since TDs are much more likely nearer the goal line. Still, this offers a (flawed, as you'll soon see) starting point.
Okay, enough bullshit. Here are the numbers:
R. White: 8 rec, 92 yards, 0.7 TDs
J. Jones: 7 rec, 74 yards, 0.6 TDs
H. Douglas: 4 rec, 52 yards, 0.5 TDs
T. Gonzalez: 8 rec, 89 yards, 0.7 TDs
J. Rodgers: 14 touches (carries + receptions), 64 yards, 0.4 TDs
M. Turner: 11 touches, 48 yards, 0.3 TDs
J. Snelling: 5 touches, 25 yards, 0.1 TDs
As you can see, there's clearly some noise in there. There's no way Douglas should be expected to score 8 points this week (52 yards and half a TD). Instead, most of that production should probably be thrown to the other guys' numbers, Jones in particular. However, as I said, this is a rough draft. I think this passes the eyeball test, as most of the numbers look pretty reasonable.
That leaves Matt Ryan with 2.7 TDs all to himself. Don't drink tonight, Matt. Please. I need you tomorrow! Oh, that's right, the interceptions: brute force, once again, I'm going with 0.8. That's a weighted average involving Ryan's INTs per game, NO's INTs forced per game, and recent history. His end line? 30/43 for 335 yards, 2.7 TD, 0.8 INT. I think we can assume his rushing stats to be negligible for this exercise.
BONUS!
What about defensive TDs impact on the expected total? Fuck 'em. Seriously. I'm going to start by assuming they're completely negligible, and that linesmakers will be doing similarly. This may end up in an overestimation of player scoring, but that'll be relatively easy to backtest for once the data has been gathered. If anything, I think I can work out an across-the-board correction for point totals to account for the (relatively) small amount of defensive scoring going on.
That's it for today! Also, please don't use any of this info to choose your starters this week. Like I said, there's some bad math here, but without access to Excel at work or a stats database yet, it'll have to do for a draft.