Don't do much sports betting and I would like some advice.

• Company: Titan Medical
• Industry: Medical Device / Robotic Technology
• Flagship Product: The Enos Surgical System
• Ticker: TMDI (Nasdaq)
• Share Price: $2.63
• Market Capitalization: $215.7M
• Float: 82.02M
• % Held by institutions: 3.29%
• % Held by Public/Other: 96.61%
• Average Volume (3 month): 1.88M
• Recent Daily Volume: 9.98M
• Investor Fact Sheet: Link

I DON’T LIKE TO READ. DO YOU HAVE ANY VIDEOS I CAN WATCH?

• 1. Learn how a single port robotic system works.
• 2. Learn about Titan Medical and their vision for the Enos Surgical System.
• 3. Watch a demonstration of the Enos surgical system.
• 4. Watch an overview of Titan Medical’s third quarter, 2020 update.

GIVE ME A COMPANY OVERVIEW
Titan Medical is a medical robotics company, based in Toronto, Canada, which recently completed an incentive based partnership with Medtronic, the largest medical supply company in the world. Titan Medical’s flagship product is the Enos surgical suite, an ergonomic, single access surgical system, that uses multi-articulated instruments with fluid motion guidance to replicate natural movement. Their workstation is smaller and more mobile than both the Intuitive and TransEntrix surgical suites. With a single port of entry, the Enos requires minimal innervation, resulting in less trauma and scarring than its competitors. They are lead by chairman and CEO, David McNally, a 33 year veteran in the medical device industry, and the co-founder of ZEVEX, an award-winning medical device company.
TELL ME ABOUT THEIR FLAGSHIP PRODUCT
The Enos surgical system, which was rebranded in September of 2020, is a mobile, single access surgical suite, designed in coordination with laparoscopic and robotic assisted surgeons. Unlike other devices, such as the da Vinci from Intuitive Surgical, the Enos was developed as a cost-effective, single-incision system, with reusable multi-articulating instruments, and a small footprint. In addition to traditional operating room procedures, the Enos targets underserved markets, such as a small ambulatory surgical centers. The Enos was designed with an open architecture, allowing it to adapt to future instruments, beyond traditional graspers, hooks, drivers, and scissors. To date, it has completed numerous pre-clinical procedures, including hysterectomies, nephrectomies, cholecystectomies, gastrectomies, splenectomies, and colectomies. For peer-reviewed abstracts, please refer to page 14 of Titan Medical’s investor overview.
WHAT DOES THE MANAGEMENT LOOK LIKE?
Titan Medical is lead by chairman and CEO, David McNally, the founder of Domain Surgical, and the co-founder of ZEVEX, an award winning medical technology company. He is also the co-inventor of over 40 U.S. and international medical device patents. Look at this man. He is the most CEO looking guy that I’ve ever seen. He’s been building successful companies since his early twenties. At research and development, the company is lead by Dr. Perry Genova, PhD, an accomplished biomedical engineering executive. Dr. Genova previously managed Centauri Robotic Surgical Systems, a private company specializing in robotic stereotactic neurosurgery. Prior to that, Dr. Genova was the president and CEO of Oncoscope, a medical device company that was acquired by SpectraScience in 2016.
DOES TITAN MEDICAL OWN ANY INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY?
Yes, Titan Medical has 58 issued patents, with 84 patent applications pending.
DOES TITAN MEDICAL HAVE ANY INTERESTING PARTNERSHIPS?
Yes, and for me, this was the most important recent milestone. In June of 2020, Titan Medical entered into an agreement with Medtronic to advance the development of their robotic surgery technologies. The agreement includes a 10 million dollar payment, and an additional series of payments totaling $31 million in exchange for Medtronic’s right to license certain technologies from Titan Medical. Medtronic is the largest medical device company in the world, and they are making substantial efforts to compete with Intuitive Surgical. Medtronic has a long history of billion dollar acquisitions. For example, in 2018, they purchased Mazor Robotics, a medical robotics company that specializes in spinal surgery, for $1.7 billion. If I had to speculate, I believe there is a high probability that Medtronic acquires Titan Medical.
DOES TITAN HAVE THE CAPITAL TO CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT?
Yes, please refer to the paragraph above, which discusses their partnership with Medtronic. You can view Titan Medical’s third quarter 2020 press release here. You can view their $10 million technical milestone press release here.
WHAT OTHER INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY?

1. In addition to their partnership with Medtronic, Titan Medical released a regulatory update, from the FDA, which indicated that the Enos system is appropriate for classification through the De Novo pathway, and confirmed that Titan Medical will file a clarifying pre-submission for Investigational Device Exemption studies.

In view of the FDA’s written response and other information available to the Company at this time, the Company would likely proceed with a De Novo classification request for its Enos system in place of a 510(k) submission. Should the FDA grant the De Novo classification request, the Class II device would be cleared to be marketed.

1. In late 2020, Titan rebranded its surgical system, the SPORT surgical system, to the Enos robotic single access surgical system, so it could better represent its design and capabilities.
   
2. In late 2020, Titan Medical obtained two additional U.S. patents for methods and apparatuses for camera positioning and hand controller Apparatus for gesture control and shared input control in a robotic surgical system.
   
3. In September of 2020, only a few months after Titan Medical inked a deal with Medtronic, we saw a major increase in institutional investment. JP Morgan increased their equity in Titan Medical by 29,600 shares, for a total of 47,000. Bank of America increased their position by 60,900 shares, for a total of 70,605. Two Sigma Advisers, the famed hedge fund which uses AI and machine learning, increased their position by 73,500, for a total of 220,600 shares. Other notable institutional investors include Capital One, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada.
   

WHERE DO YOU SEE THIS COMPANY IN THE FUTURE?
At this stage, I consider Titan Medical to be an early iteration of Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG), which is a leader in robotic-assisted systems. Intuitive Surgical developed the famed da Vinci surgical system, which received FDA approval in 2000. Since the release of the da Vinci system, Intuitive Surgical’s stock has appreciated over 8,000%. There is a growing consensus that robotic-assisted companies will become the leading investment class over the next several decades, even outpacing dominant stocks, like Amazon or Apple. Considering the competitive landscape, the previous success of Intuitive, the rapid growth in robotic technology, and Titan Medical’s partnership with Medtronic, it’s reasonable to consider that they might be acquired by Medtronic.
WHY SHOULD I SPECULATE ON TITAN MEDICAL INSTEAD OF INVESTING IN INTUITIVE SURGICAL?
The easiest answer is the best answer. This is a microcap stock forum, and our goal is to discover and speculate on companies before they reach extraordinary valuations. Intuitive is an established company, and the majority of its yield has already been realized. Titan Medical is an early stage, medical robotics company, with a suite of emerging robotics technology, and a series of upcoming triggers both in the near-term, and over the course of the next several months and years. Their incentive based partnership with Medtronic gives them access to capital, engineering, and leadership, ensuring the company can reach full commercialization.
HOW WELL WILL THE SURGICAL ROBOT MARKET DEVELOP?
There are various opinions on this subject, but all reports indicate massive growth over the next 5-7 years, citing CAGR rates between 16-25%. You can read analysis from Emergen Research and MordorIntelligence. The competitive landscape is straddled between a fragmented market, without dominant players, and a consolidated market, dominated by only a few major players. More specific reports, such as the Global Urology Robotic Surgery Market 2020 report, cites Titan Medical as a top player in the robotic surgery market. Historically, and recently, companies like Intuitive, Stryker, Verb Surgical, and Medtronic have made several acquisitions, all in an effort to gain an edge. I believe this reinforces the possibility that Titan Health could be acquired, especially considering the ENOS system has unique engineering elements and patents that existing and developing surgical suites do not have.
WHY ARE YOU BUYING IN RIGHT NOW?
I have been following Titan Medical for over two years now. Previously, I was hesitant to invest due to their financial situation. I wasn't certain if they had enough capital and resources to reach commercialization, but I remained highly interested. Their presentations during 2020 were compelling, especially when they presented at the H.C. Wainwright conference. I was on the verge of opening a position, and when Medtronic announced their deal, I was convinced this is was company I wanted to speculate on long term. Recently, I've noticed an increase in major institutional investments, and the regulatory feedback they have received from the FDA has been great. It creates compelling headlines, and brings us closer to an ultimate FDA clearance. Based on sentiment and activity analytics, I believe that they’re entering the beginning of a hype period. I expect we'll begin to see numerous articles and forum posts about them. For these reasons, and several more, I increased my position on Friday by 6,000 shares.
WHERE ARE WE AT IN THE HYPE STAGE?
Let me preface by stating that I almost exclusively prefer to enter positions before any hype exists. You will make significantly better returns by positioning yourself before the crowd arrives than you will by chasing the hype after it has occurred. Based on market sentiment, and the frequency at which Titan Medical is referenced on YouTube, reddit, and other social media and investment platforms, I believe we’re at the beginning of the bell curve. I use a proprietary sentiment tracker, which I cannot release (it’s not mine), however publicly available systems, such as Google’s trend analytics, show that activity has recently broken a 30 day high. For the first time, over the last 1-2 weeks, I’ve begun to see the first references to Titan Medical on various YouTube channels. However, the activity on Reddit is currently very small, which is good in my opinion, since Reddit tends to be last in the hype cycle. By the time stock picks become hyped on Reddit, most of the short term gains have been had.
WHY DO YOU HAVE SO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS STOCK?
My background is in medicine and human physiology, while my more recent work and education is in financial markets. Although I was not a surgeon, I have an adequate medical background to understand the need and utility of surgical robots, and to be able to accurately interpret research publications. I have a network of friends and colleagues in the industry that have helped me review the company, including several laparoscopic surgeons. However, the majority of my confidence comes from Medtronic. As a partner and investor, Medtronic received exclusive access to the finances and engineering of Titan Medical. They were able to investigate the company beyond what any of us could accomplish, and these investigations resulted in a significant partnership. Based on Medtronic’s success, their history of acquisitions, their extensive resources, and their explicit desire to dominate the robotic surgery market, I believe Titan Medical is a winning investment. Because Titan Medical is in a pre-commercialization stage, the masses have not yet noticed this stock, and I believe that provides an asymmetrical risk due to the enormous potential profit. Even at early speculative stages, I expect this company to have a billion dollar market cap.
THIS SOUNDS INTERESTING. HIT ME WITH SOME CRAZY HYPE. WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN AN IDEAL SCENARIO?
If Titan Medical were to achieve a market capitalization similar to Intuitive Surgical, it would reach an equity share price of approximately $1,140/share. This would amount to an estimated 46,500% increase from Titan Medical’s current share price. In the short term, I believe we see major price action based on their Medtronic partnership, their improved financial situation ($10M bought deal offering is expected to close on Jan 29th), their FDA milestones, and their pre-clinical operations. Based on the impressive price action on Friday, and over the course of the previous week, I expect this company to start hitting Reddit, YouTube, and other major forums, which, believe it or not, has been a major indicator for short and long term stock gains.
TL;DR: Titan Medical is a surgical robotics company that developed the Enos surgical suite, an innovative, single-access surgical system, designed in coordination with laparoscopic and robotic assisted surgeons. This company plans to replicate the success of Intuitive Surgical, a surgical robotics company worth over $87 billion, who’s share price has increased over 11,000% since the introduction of their da Vinci surgical system. In addition to their rebranding, Titan Medical recently completed an incentive based partnership with Medtronic, the largest medical device company in the world, which will provide financing, board oversight, and research and development assistance. This is a major milestone for Titan Health, because it ensures their success, either through their own development, or through acquisition. The stock has been on a steady upward trend since the deal was announced, but based on recent volume and online activity, and growing institutional investment, I believe it’s entering an accelerated bullish phase.
POSITION: 12,000 shares of TMDI
Obligatory Edit: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

WELCOME Silver Army. I am not going to get hells in depth here on this, that and the other but what I will tell you is, this is your 15minutes of fame and it starts right now....This is not a 3 day event, this will be a couple months of war, with us benefitting from it. We must strike while the fire is hot, hit Wall Street from multiple angles and keep them on their heels. WE CAN'T LET UP UNTIL JUSTICE IS SERVED. With that being said.....Strap in....
Silver Bullion Market is one of the most manipulated on earth. The number of investigations, legal cases, class actions and financial headlines involving precious metals manipulation are now so pervasive that it’s hard to keep track of which cases are in motion and which investment banks are under scrutiny at any given time. Two in particular, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have been caught numerous times doing this in the precious metals futures by using spoofing. Spoofing is when traders send trading signals into a market, with no intention of buying or selling at those prices, in order to move a market in one direction or another. In the case of both these scumbags, traders submitted both trades they intended to act upon as well as spoof trades. The goal was to use the spoof to nudge the market in a certain direction, and then activate the intended trade to profit from the move.
There are other ways to manipulate the market, this is the easiest to explain without going down a 10 paragraph rabbit hole here.......
At this current time inflation adjusted Silver should be somewhere close to $1000 instead of the $26 we are at now. The silver futures are usually anywhere between 75-1 and 400-500 to 1 of paper traded compared to physical silver. So if it was 200-1, every 200 ounces in open interest (paper trades) 1 (physical ounce) gets delivered. Reason for this is 99% of people want the $$$$ versus showing up in a truck and taking physical delivery of a shit load of physical silver. So the people (scumbags) who are whats called "naked shorting" (paper trading silver to the ratio we talked about for example above 200-1) are a couple of banks which we will not name (jp morgan, Deutsche) and breaking these silver suits of wall street would be a huge win for the American people and pretty god damn funny.
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Why do we dislike big banks? Why do we dislike lying, scumbag politicians? Why do we dislike constant bailouts for Wall Street and not Mainstreet? Everyone remembers recessions that took place. Most recently, the Global financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the current pandemic with coronavirus. To be direct and keep this post short, read here for the ins and outs on how WALL STREET fucked America and sent the world into a tailspin The 2007-2008 Financial Crisis in Review (investopedia.com) & to follow up all of these banks that were involved in some shape or form took taxpayer money to stay in business Treasury's bank bailout list - CNNMoney.com This ruined many of lives that to some extent are still shown today.
Fast forward to NOW. Coronavirus, shutdowns, jobs lost, lives lost...Big Wall Street hedge funds took advantage of small cap stocks and shorted these (placing bets through shares that these companies will go down in value) companies while they were closed in hopes they went bankrupt so they can reap billions of money from it, while people lose their jobs and homes from it. Fast forward, you are seeing what happens in the form of GameStop and how the price of a 2.50, almost delisted and bankrupt stock went to over $500/share in a few months. The WSB (WallStreetBets) made famous by rallying together and buying stock and call options in this company and a couple others and driving the price of it through the roof so that wall street hedge funds had to liquidate their positions and buy back at a very high price. One of these Melvin Cap actually lost more than 50% in January on GameStop and had to ask Citadel (dont get me started on these clowns) and point 72 for around 3 billion dollars to sure up their finances.
OKAY, THIS IS GETTING LONG, SO NOW IM GETTING TO THE POINT, FUCK IT.....
ticker SLV ( iShares Silver Trust) is all the buzz, this is where the green dildo is going to go right up wall street's ass!!! (Green dildo is a trading term some of us perverts use when a stock or cryptocurrecy goes up very fast in a short period of time on a chart
--A dildo in cryptocurrency or stock, etc. is a green/red candle that appears in a lot of graphs which are supposedly wanting to tell you about the increase or decrease of the exchange price of a certain investment. Undoubtedly, many people have seen these candles (vertical lines) on graphs. These show the maximal and minimal exchange rate for a session.
So YOU, our silver army have a couple decisions to make

1. THIS IS THE MONEY SHOT IF YOU WANT TO OBTAIN A SHIT TON OF ROI (money shot=porn term) PURCHASE SLV CALL OPTIONS (BETTING FOR THE PRICE TO GO UP) ON THE APRIL 16TH 35 STRIKE. THE PRESSURE RECENTLY IS GOING TO DRIVE THIS UP TO 35 N DOUBT AND CREATE WHATS CALLED A GAMMA SQUEEZE AND SLV SHOULD SHOOT TO 75 BY END OF APRIL. THIS STRIKE PRICE HAS BEEN GETTING A FUCKLOAD OF ATTENTION FOR THE LAST 3-4 TRADING SESSIONS AND LIKE THEY SAY, FOLLOW THE MONEY!!!
2. BUY THE SLV SHARES OUTRIGHT. SO IF ITS $27 PER SHARE THEN 100 SHARES WOULD EQUAL 2700 BUCKS. SOUNDS WEIRD, WHY BUY THIS FOR FOR MONEY WHEN I CAN BUY OPTIONS FOR LESS??? OPTIONS YOU MUST HIT THAT PRICE QUICKLY AND SURPASS IT FOR A BIGGER PAYDAY. SO IT MAY BE FOR THAT $150 INVESTED YOULL SEE A RETURN OF 5X OR MORE IF ACHIEVED. IF NOT THAT MONEY IS GONE OR ITS VALUE IS LOST CONSIDERABLY. BUYING THE SLV SHARES DIRECTLY, YOU OWN THOSE 100 REGARDLESS OF TIME OR PRICE. PLUS WE DONT SELL AND KEEP THE OUNCES OF SILVER OFF THE MARKET.
3. SPLIT NUMBER 1 AND 2 SCENARIO 50/50

4. BUY PHYSICAL SILVER DIRECTLY---NOT THE BEST BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO PAY A PREMIUM TO WHOMEVER YOU GET IT FROM. IT TAKES OUNES OFF THE MARKET BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SLV BECAUSE THE PREMIUM IS NOWHERE NEAR WHAT YOULL PAY A DEALER.

1. DO NOT BUY THE MINERS!! YES, THEY WILL GO UP BUT THEIR REVENUES ARE LIKE A QUARTER FROM ACTUAL SILVER, THE PHYSICAL AND SLV IS WHERE ITS AT.

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THE WAY the "squeeze" will occur is we force a high amount of these bull shit paper ounces (see above) to actually deliver the physical silver (which we wont technically be doing) There is very little physical silver in these vaults, its all paper contracts. There is no way to create physical silver to be delivered right away so this will spike the price like a mother fucker. This is a real commodity, and if you are short (betting against) the market, you literally have to deliver on these fuck tons of ounces of silver. If you remember oil going to the negative earlier this year that is because these commodities trade to their true value. they cant halt it, so its going to be interesting what happens when this occurs.
Currently the worlds investment grade silver is somewhere around 80 billion, gold is like 8 trillion or so, so not that much has to be purchased to create a swell and drive this price to the fucken moon!! and when the price does go up its not like it will come back down anytime soon because silver mines are scarce and to build one would take years. Secondly, big tech and industrial needs will be forced to take physical delivery from COMEX so they wont be fucked with no supply!! To get supply is not that easy so the price would stay up up up.
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IF YOU BUY THE OPTIONS, YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN WE COME CLOSE TO THE EXPIRATION IN APRIL, IF YOU BUY THE SHARES HOLD ONTO THOSE MOTHERFUCKERS!!!! THE MORE SHARES BOUGHT THE MORE THESE COCKSUCKERS HAVE TO SURE UP THE VAULTS EVERYDAY WITH MORE PHYSICAL SILVER. ARE THEY ACTUALLY DOING IT? THEYLL SAY YES, BUT AT A POINT THEY WILL HAVE TO 100% AND SHIT IS GOING TO HIT THE FAN!! THIS PAST FRIDAY LATE, 37 MILLION OUNCES HAD TO BE PURCHASED TO SURE UP THE TRUST, THATS EQUIV TO 25% OF ALL THE REGISTERED INVENTORY BACKING THE SILVER COMEX FUTURES CONTRACTS!!
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IN ENDING...............
ARE YOU SICK AND TIRED OF WATCHING BIG FAT CAT WALL STREET BANKERS SCREW THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER? GOOD, BUY SLV AND HOLD
ARE YOU SICK AND TIRED OF WALL STREET GETTING TO DO WHATEVER THEY WANT WHEN THEY WANT WITH NO REPRUCUSSIONS? GOOD, BUY SLV AND HOLD
DO YOU WANT TO MAKE A DECISION THAT WILL HAVE POSITIVE EFFECTS ON YOU AND AND YOUR FAMILYS FUTURE? GOOD, BUY SLV AND HOLD
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IT DOESNT MATTER IF YOU HAVE 25$, 250$ OR 250,000$ EACH BIT PURCHASED WILL HAVE ANOTHER SWIPE OF THE BASEBALL BAT AT THESE FUCKERS KNEES. WE WILL KEEP BUYING AND BUYING UNTIL THEY CHOKE ON SLV. THEY WILL CHOKE SO MUCH THEY WILL HAVE TO BREATHE THROUGH THEIR NOSE, NOT THEIR MOUTH.
One more thing....DO NOT GIVE A FUCK ABOUT PRE MARKET/AFTER MARKET BULLSHIT THESE SUITS PLAY. WHAT MATTERS IS OUR ARMY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 930AM AND 4PM WHEN THE MARKET IS OPEN TO BUY SHARES AND OPTIONS!!!
ITS AMERICA'S TIME, ITS YOUR TIME MY PROUD SILVER ARMY NOW MOUNT UP LETS KNOCK THIS MOTHER FUCKER OUT OF THE PARK TOMORROW MORNING!!!!!!!!
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DISCLAIMER...I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISER. THIS IS NOT A PUMP AND DUMP, RATHER YOU ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THIS SQUEEZE. PRICES WILL WITHOUT A DOUBT HIT $50 AND HAVE THE VERY LIKELY POTENTIAL TO RISE TO $100 VERY QUICKLY AND MIGHT EVEN GO HIGHER THAN THAT. USE YOUR JUDGEMENT ON HOW MUCH TO INVEST, PLEASE DONT USE YOUR RENT MONEY TO INVEST, LIKE I SAID THIS IS NOT A 2 DAY PUMP AND DUMP. SILVER HAS BEEN LONG FUCKED WITH FOR DECADES AND WE AND MILLIONS OF OTHERS WILL FINALLY EXPOSE THE SHIT THAT HAS GONE ON AND SWEPT UNDER THE RUG FOR SO LONG. SILVER DESERVES TO GO UP, SHOULD GO UP, WILL GO UP AND STAY UP. NO PUMP, THIS IS A REVALUATION, A MOVEMENT, A RESPONSE TO MASSIVE MANIPULATION!!
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SOLDIER ON
THE GENERAL

There's been so much doom and gloom on this sub lately about the state of the story with so many people complaining that we're getting a rushed ending with the "plot armor" Alliance winning and Eren somehow getting killed. That sentiment seems to have grown after the latest chapter. But just take a couple of minutes to look at what's really happening in the story and you should see how it's leading to Eren winning. After 136, I think it's all but assured.

• Problems left to resolve:

The main conflict of the series isn't Eren destroying the world. That's only Eren's own solution to the conflict. The conflict from the beginning has been about Paradis vs. the world. As long as one side is hated for their ancestry and ability to turn into giant monsters, peace between both sides will never happen. Eren's doing what he can to ensure his home doesn't get wiped out by the world. The Alliance wishes for the same, but it's not their priority. Their only concern at the moment is stopping Eren from destroying the world. They've also not expressed any interest in ending the rule of Titans that King Fritz started 2000 years ago and ending the cycle of Titan inheritance while Eren has. We don't know how that can be done, but I think most of us agree it should involve Ymir and/or the Founding Titan, and right now she's working with Eren. In other words, there's one side that's working to resolve the major problems that need to be resolved for this series to end and it isn't the Alliance.
In addition to those large conflicts that have existed since the start of the story, there are some smaller ones that would need to be resolved too. Eren's refusal to allow Historia to be sacrificed to maintain the threat of the Rumbling. Paradis largely supports Eren and the Yeagerists. That includes Historia, who ended up siding with him (even if both of them are upset about having to do what they're doing) and the Alliance is completely in the dark about this. Ymir's freedom is also on the line. Will she remain trapped in the PATHS land for an eternity building Titans or will she finally be free like she and Eren want? The Alliance doesn't have the power nor the will to resolve all these conflicts.
Even if you don't morally agree with a completed Rumbling, it's the ending that makes the most sense from a storytelling perspective since it resolves (or at least opens up the path for resolving) all of these problems. So many people are focused on how the Alliance will stop Eren that they forget there are still actual conflicts in the series left to be resolved. What makes more sense to you guys? An Eren victory where the only character who can and will resolve the conflicts that have been set up in the story actually succeeds or an Alliance victory where a group of characters oblivious to or not interested in most of the conflicts that need to be resolved succeeds?

• What the pacing of the last few chapters means:

With only 3 chapters left, Eren winning is the only ending that can possibly be done in the amount of time we have left. It won't take a long time. He already has the easiest path to the end. He has the power to end the battle whenever he wants and the power to do anything to Eldians. If he's going to end the rule of Titans for good, he and Ymir are on the same page. Paradis would be at peace from invaders since there won't be any invaders left. Isayama doesn't really need to do much more to make a convincing Eren win in the last or second to last chapter. If he wants Eren to win, he already has the necessary tools to make it happen and can take his time with these recent chapters to get there. 135 and 136 were almost entirely focused on action and barely moved the story forward. That tells us that Isayama isn't in any rush to get to his planned ending and can spend this time on fanservice like ancient Titans, Flying Falco, Pieck being Pieck, Armin getting molested, etc.
Let's assume for a second that I'm completely wrong about this and Isayama really is planning to fit an Alliance victory into the final 3 chapters. The amount of work required to pull that off at this point is just simply not possible anymore. Defeating Eren won't solve any of the major conflicts of the series. They need significantly more time for that. Not only to think of solutions but to also acknowledge the problems they haven't even given a thought about so far. Even if the world magically forgives Paradis, there's no reason to expect Paradis to forgive the world when most of them support Eren. And there's nothing stopping victims of the Rumbling from seeking revenge. The cycle of hatred between both sides would continue. The Alliance has no solution to that after they defeat Eren. They don't even care about Titans being a problem. If they do somehow remove Titan powers from the world, that would leave Eldians defenseless and take away the one thing that made the world suddenly regret their hatred. No matter what, the Alliance winning can't solve anything realistically. You would need some of the largest asspulls in the entire series to be able to instantly fix everything if the Alliance wins.
If the series wasn't ending in the immediate future, I could see hope for a realistic Alliance victory. But that's not the case. The Alliance needs far more setup than what they've gotten so far and that setup requires far more time than what they have left. If that was really what Isayama was doing, do you think he'd be dragging out the last few chapters instead of trying to fit in a million things needed for that ending?

• Isayama still hiding Eren's narrative trump cards:

We're currently in the endgame and Eren's side still has secrets to be revealed, unlike the Alliance which is an open book. We know everything about them and their plans and so does Eren since he's practically omniscient now. Meanwhile, Eren, Historia, and Ymir are the 3 biggest question marks right now. I guess you could add Zeke too, but 136 ended with him so it looks like we're about to get some info about him before the other 3. The fact that it's Eren's side that holds all the remaining secrets is a good sign for his success.
What happened in the rest of Eren and Historia's conversation from 130? Why does Historia want a child? Where's the rest of Eren's POV? Why is Ymir helping Eren destroy the world? What do they all hope to accomplish after the Rumbling? We can make educated guesses for all those questions and I think we have enough clues to figure out most of them, but the story still hasn't answered them and is treating them as the final mysteries. It also seems that Eren still has some future memories that we have yet to see the context of. One from his meeting with Historia and the "see you later" one with Mikasa that hasn't happened yet. Grisha also saw memories that convinced him of Eren's success and I don't believe we know what those memories are yet.
Look at it this way: Any remaining plot twist can only come from Eren's side. The Alliance doesn't have anything new to offer to the story if they win. It may look to some of you guys like we're heading down a path where the Alliance defeats Eren against all odds, but logic dictates that Eren should have some surprises for the audience and it won't be that simple for the Alliance. If that wasn't the case, Isayama wouldn't still be building up so much mystery surrounding Eren going into the climax of the story.

• Predictions for the final 3 chapters:

Instead of coming up with a very convenient and miraculous way for the Alliance to defeat Eren, I think Isayama is going to spend the next 2 chapters wrapping up some character arcs and killing off a few more characters. Some characters have completed arcs like Gabi and Connie or no arcs at all like Pieck. That doesn't mean everyone will get killed off. I actually think Gabi's one of the safest characters right now, despite being back on the battlefield.
Levi still needs to have some resolution regarding Zeke. The latest chapter gave Levi's promise more focus and gave us an update on Zeke, so I think that's going to be resolved soon. I'm not going to place bets on whether he lives or dies, but he should at least be safe until his business with Zeke is over, whatever he decides to do with him.
I'm betting on Mikasa's "see you later" scene happening in 138. It could be the most emotional part of this battle and should be tied to Mikasa's conclusion. I've seen theories ranging from this being Mikasa's death to this being the moment she kills Eren. Given how much the narrative supports Eren surviving, I doubt it's the latter. Either way, it looks like something that would be fitting for the climax of the battle so it's gotta be 138. Maybe the start of 139 if the battle hasn't ended yet.
Other characters, I'm less certain about. Reiner and Armin I feel could have their arcs wrapped up after the battle with Eren if they live in a post-Rumbling world with Reiner choosing to keep living for the sake of Gabi and Falco and Armin coming to some sort of realization about his role in the world after being brought back in place of Erwin and failing to stop Eren (not sure exactly what this realization could be, though). I don't see much of a reason to kill them off. I also expect Falco to live and be with Gabi (good boi deserves a happy ending), but what makes me uncertain is him being a Titan. If reuniting all Titan powers in one person is required for somehow ending the curse of the Titans like some people have theorized, then Falco, Reiner, and Armin are doomed. I'm hoping that's not the case.
Some people say Jean's development is complete and he's got a death flag. I can see the death flag, but I can also just as easily see him surviving until the end and having some sort of leadership role in the epilogue since that's a big part of his character that has yet to fully come into play.
A few other things that could happen in the next 2 chapters: Armin might spend the next chapter in PATHS trying to figure out how to stop/appease Ymir, probably by talking about ending the curse, but it'll amount to nothing since there's nothing he can do that Eren and Ymir aren't already doing or planning to do. Eren's Titan is getting blown up, either by the bombs or a Colossal nuke, but it won't be enough to kill him.
139 will most likely be an Eren-focused epilogue. Or maybe it'll continue the battle from Eren's perspective. Either way, Eren's POV seems likely here. He's almost certainly in the final panel and I think the final plot twists Isayama's saving regarding Eren can be placed here without interrupting the battle. Whatever he discussed with Historia has a good chance of being here, though if it doesn't take up much time it might be placed in 138 to show us some more of Eren's motivations and raise the stakes for him before the battle ends.
TL;DR: People are overreacting to the latest chapters. The pacing as of 136 puts Eren in the best position to come out on top and resolve the main conflicts of the series. He still hasn't shown his full hand while the Alliance has. The groundwork for this ending has already been laid, meaning it can be done quickly so Isayama doesn't need to rush. In fact, he's even dragging it out for the other characters. The only things that really need to be done right now are to give a few of the Alliance members conclusions to their character arcs and answer some Eren/Historia/Ymir-related mysteries.

Hey you. Yeah, you. You tired of playing the same Golos deck, playing two lands a turn, drawing into your combo pieces, and winning while the entire table finishes War and Peace on their phones? You bored with your Sultai landfall deck, where you play solitaire for three hours? Board police getting too much to bear?
Well, let me introduce you to your new best friend: [[Neheb, the Eternal]].
Now, if you've never seen Neheb before, I know what you're thinking. "Wow, that card looks absolutely absurd", and buddy, you're right. Neheb decks aren't as much EDH decks as they are high-score attempts, seeing how much damage they can dish out in a single turn. Damage doublers, triplers, pingers that only go face, and enough X spells to make Zaxara cry in a little Sultai corner.
You want infinite combats? Neheb. You want to [[Comet Storm]] for 80? Neheb. You want to burn that lifegain deck right back to the pit it crawled out of? YOU WANT TO PUT THE FEAR OF GOD INTO ANYONE WHO DARES CONTINUE TO LIVE? N E H E B.
STEP ONE: RAMP
While Neheb himself is both a beeftank of a man and creates mana like he's eighty mountains strapped to a rocket sled, Neheb works best when he's out, and five mana isn't exactly cheap. So, what do we need? The standard rocks and ramp, like [[Sol Ring]], [[Wayfarer's Bauble]], [[Mind Stone]], [[Arcane Signet]], [[Ruby Medallion]], you get it. We do, however, run a few interesting ramp cards.
[[Cryptolith Fragment]] comes in tapped, sure, but once we have our big Lazotep Lasher out, we can tap it for one mana in the main phase, and three (3!) mana in the 2nd main phase. The good news is that if it transformed, something has gone horribly wrong, so we're not even gonna talk about the back. If it does flip, though, nine mana in the 2nd main isn't bad at all.
[[Everflowing Chalice]] isn't a rock, it's a bank. If you have a ton of mana floating in the second main, and you will, Everflowing Chalice is a way to keep some of it and use it on turns going forward. You can replace this with [[Horizon Stone]], I guess, but Everflowing is just a bit faster, and remember: Horizon Stone is based on Kruphix, and he's Simic, and we blow Simic players into small chunks. Oh, also, we have better Horizon Stone.
THAT'S RIGHT WE HAVE [[Leyline Tyrant]] BABY. You want to float mana? Leyline Tyrant. You want an evasive beater? Leyline Tyrant. You want protection from removal in the form of Leyline Tyrant choosing violence and blowing up someone's face? Ley. Line. Tyrant.
You want mana? You want it NOW? Cool. We got [[Seething Song]] and [[Jeska's Will]] for all your mana needs. Turn 2 Neheb is always a bucket of fun. Black can keep [[Dark Ritual]], I bet they're casting single target removal with it, what a bunch of nerds.
Our mana doubler is [[Extraplanar Lens]] and [[Snow-Covered Mountains]]. We want mana. Not them. If they have snow-covered mountains, blow them up first. Cowards.
[[Chandra, Torch of Defiance]] has two +1 abilities: gain red red, or deal two damage to each opponent, draw a card, and get six red mana. She's here for her good +1.
Now that we have our mana online, let's talk about our two plans: Nukes and Dukes.
STEP TWO: DUKES
PART ONE: BOXING GLOVES
Neheb is a commander that likes to attack. Once he's out, we're going to want to have him swing probably ever turn, because even if he's blocked he goes right over the top. The issue, however, is that while he has 6 toughness, that's not a lot going into the late game. So, we've got some boxing gloves for our beeftank.
[[Darksteel Plate]] lets us not really worry about Neheb. Slap some darksteel on that lazotep and watch the haymakers fly.
[[Sword of War and Peace]] and [[Sword of Sinew and Steel]] give him protection from white and black, and also importantly, RED. We can use our X spells that also hit creatures with impunity once we give Neheb one of his twin blades.
[[Shadowspear]] gives Neheb trample, which lets him smack harder, and also, for two mana, you can remove indestructible and hexproof from an opponent's permanents. A glorious piece of tech. The lifelink can be nice, but it's, there to punch through. Speaking of punching through
[[Embercleave]] needs no introduction. If you're turning something sideways, Embercleave is always a great way to make sure it damn well hurts.
[[Swiftfoot Boots]] makes killing Neheb harder, and anything that makes Neheb stickier is good in my books. Haste is also an absolute plus. We don't have [[Lightning Greaves]] because we want to give Neheb more equipment than just lightning greaves, and shroud makes that harder than it needs to be.
PART TWO: SIDEWAYS CREATURES
If we're swinging more than once a turn, and we WILL be swinging more than once a turn, we want to swing with things that create effects that benefit from multiple combats. Enter our beaters:
[[Tectonic Giant]] swings once and deals three damage to everyone, or impulse draws. You swing multiple times with him and with Neheb in play, and boy howdy did you just draw and make a ton of mana. An absolute unit of a card.
[[Etali, Primal Storm]] is four free draws per swing. You swing multiple times with Stompy McCardsteal, and you've basically cast Villainous Wealth in red.
[[Neheb, Dreadhorde Champion]] is both real and not impulse draw and mana ramp. Swing, dump bad cards, get mana, repeat. EZ Clap.
PART THREE: TECHNICAL KNOCKOUT
[[World at War]] and [[Savage Beating]] gives us extra combats, with World At War having rebound to guarantee us extra combat the next turn and Savage Beating giving us double strike to combat trick like an absolute madman if we need to really add insult to injury.
[[Aggrivated Assault]] takes a small amount to explain. So, if we swing with Neheb, and he's unblocked, we get four mana. Tap a mountain, five mana, get an extra combat, swing with Neheb, go to the next main phase, EIGHT MANA, because Neheb cares about total damage of the turn, and checks every post-combat main phase, not your first one. That's right. We go infinite. Blow up the world, send out Neheb, and swing for infinite gaining infinite mana.
Also do not shout the names of the cards in this section because most of them are absolutely crimes and your pod will call the cops to stop you from beating their life totals into the dirt.
STEP THREE: NUKES
PART ONE: PRIMING FOR FISSION
Before we can bow up the world, we need to prime ourselves for it. To do this, we need to damage our opponents, and get our damage increasing abilities online.
[[Acidic Soil]] and [[Price of Progress]] are pretty much free damage. That guy who spent all game mana fixing? Yeah, he's getting shot for 16. The Golos deck? 30. Acidic Soil is there because it also counts basics, so the budget player who thought he was safe can get slapped for daring to play Magic as well.
[[Chandra's Ignition]] is 5 red mana for 12 red mana if you hit Neheb with it. It also board wipes. Slap it on Etali if you have protection for Neheb, and watch the world go down in fire.
[[Flame Rift]], [[Slagstorm]], and [[Fiery Confluence]] hit our opponents for dirt cheap costs. Three mana to get nine mana? two mana and four life for 12 mana? Treasonous Ogre is crying, he's been unemployed. Fiery Confluence is also a board wipe and a removal spell, which is super neato, as we're a mono-colored deck, so our toolbox isn't super diverse.
[[Combustible Gearhulk]] says "Give me draw or give me mana''. It's our Fact or Fiction, and much like Fact or Fiction, there are only bad answers. With an average CMC of 3, we're going to either draw three or get our mana back when someone takes 6 damage.
[[Pyrohemia]] says "pay one red mana: Gain three red mana". It's literally just Dark Ritual that is also removal. If you can't see why that's good I have no idea what you're doing in a red burn deck explanation.
[[Heartless Hidetsugu]] deals damage to each opponent equal to half their life total, rounded down. Deals damage. This isn't loss of life, this isn't 'becomes', Hidetsugu takes their life totals outside with a baseball bat and teaches it to fear the color red. Shadowspear on him makes you gain all the life they lost. If you have a damage doubler out, Hidetsugu says "Tap this creature, Win the Game." If he taps, and Neheb is out, one X spell almost guarantees a player death.
PART TWO: ROCKET FUEL
[[Torbran, Thane of Red Fell]] is not a damage doubler, but it does make our smaller pingers like Flame Rift, Fiery Confluence, and Pyrohemia absolutely backbreaking. Think of him as the initial charge.
[[Insult // Injury]] often time reads "Pay 3 mana: Your next spell kills a player". Injury is nice, but we're really here for the cheap damage double and to stop any damage prevention shenanigans. We're casting Insult when we know we can go off.
[[Fiery Emancipation]] Is here because, honestly, we make so much mana we'd be stupid not to run it. Six mana to triple damage when we make dozens of mana a turn is an incredible deal, and because it's one-sided, we don't have to worry about people killing us immediately with their tiny creatures. [[Furnace of Rath]] is two mana cheaper, yes, but importantly it doubles instead of triples, and also, uh, it doubles on US. We're trying not to self-destruct.
PART FOUR: DETONATION
[[Rolling Earthquake]] hits everything without horsemanship, so it hits everything. It's strictly better than Earthquake, because if we're casting an X spell, 80% of the time we're casting it because either A) We're about to lose or B) We're about to win.
[[Molten Disaster]] has split second, which makes it uncounterable, unreturnable, and uninteractable. It's our "YOU DARE PLAY BLUE?!" card.
[[Jaya's Immolating Inferno]] targets up to three targets. You will have three opponents in your pod. The math works.
[[Comet Storm]] is flexible, in that if you've already blown someone to kingdom come, it costs one less mana! So that's nice! It's also great target removal, and great with our newest card...
[[Toralf, God of Fury]]. Oh yeah. In this deck, a deck where we overkill everything, Toralf becomes an absolute monster. Earthquake everyone, and have the excess damage dealt to their creatures finish them off. The flip side of the card also goes mana-positive with Neheb, if we really need to get there and are just out of reach. This is a card this deck loves like your opponents love not being blown off the face of the earth by fireballs.
PART FIVE: CLUSTER MUNITIONS
[[Primal Amulet]] lets us copy our damage when it flips, and makes our damage spells cheaper before it does. It's easy to see why it's an all-star here.
[[Reverberate]] lets us copy something. Sometimes it'll be the counter that's trying to stop Jaya's Immolating Inferno. Sometimes it'll be the Immolating Inferno itself.
[[Reiterate]] is a multi-use reverberate, and we have the mana to use it.
STEP 4: THE REST OF THE DECK ^{ThisIsn'tAStepButShhhhhh}
HASTE
We want to give our creatures haste. [[Generator Servant]], [[Purphoros, Bronze-Blooded]], we can wheel away an [[Anger]] with ease, and [[Ogre Battledriver]] gives us a bit of oomph when our creatures enter the battlefield. Purphoros also functions as a sneak attack for when we want a creature to attack, but we don't have the mana to get it out.
DRAW
Look. We're in mono red, which means we have... one tutor that's halfway decent for our plan, and that's [[Gamble]]. We need draw. We're running a lot of it. [[Valakut Awakening]], [[Reforge the Soul]], [[Molten Psyche]], [[Magus of the Wheel]], [[Commune with Lava]], [[Cathartic Reunion]], [[Faithless Looting]] whatever we need to draw a whole ton, we have.
The real all-star draw card is [[Knollspine Dragon]]. Draw equal to damage to target opponent? In a burn deck? In a burn deck where our burn makes mana? Oh baby you best believe that when you slam this puppy down people are going to quake in their boots. From the dragon. And maybe from the Rolling Earthquake. Or the Molten Disaster. Whatever.
REMOVAL
We're not running much actual removal, because, well, A: Mono Red, and B: We're a player removal deck. If you want board control, or if you want a deck that doesn't feel like piloting a crashing roller coaster that is currently on fire, go play [[Zada, Hedron Grinder]]. We're here for the boom boom.
[[Vandalblast]] and [[Shattering Spree]] let us remove pesky artifacts, [[Blasphemous act]] removes board states for dirt cheap, and [[Chaos Warp]] lets us deal with one of anything.
[[Deflecting Swat]] is for anyone trying to touch our Lazotep Loverboy or for stack interaction when our [[Pyroblast]] fails to stop a counter.
LANDS
[[Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx]] is pure gas, [[Ancient Tomb]] gets Neheb out fast, and [[Rogue's passage]] gets us through chump blockers and deathtouchers if we need to swing with Neheb. Other than that, it's mountains, a [[Myriad Landscape]], and a [[Smoldering Crater]] to remind our opponents of the fate that awaits them and also some draw if we need it.
SIDEBOARD
For some, four X spells isn't enough. [[Fall of the Titans]] and [[Earthquake]] are easy to slot in, and for those who want more combat, [[Fury of the Horde]] is easy enough to get. [[Mana Geyser]] is great against landfall decks, [[Red Elemental Blast]] is good if your meta includes people who try to stop you from throwing the sun at them (Cowards.). If you want more draw, [[Apex of Power]] is a free draw 10 spell, and [[Dragon Mage]] is a [[Wheel of Fortune]] on a stick. Well, Magus of the Wheel is Wheel of Fortune on a stick ALRIGHT YOU GET IT.
UPGRADES
The easiest upgrade path for this deck is fast mana. [[Mana Crypt]], [[Grim Monolith]], [[Mana Vault]], [[Jeweled Lotus]] the faster you can pump out Neheb the better. They're not on this list because they're pretty goddamn expensive, and if you turn two Neheb people are going to focus you into the absolute dirt. [[Doubling Cube]] is neat, but honestly, it's just a but overkill.
Otherwise, upgrades include [[Wheel of Fortune]], your favorite Eldrazi Titan as a big ol' beater if you like the multiple combats, [[Sword of Fire and Ice]] is just the best damn sword we can get, and I'd say get [[Gauntlet of Might]] but for many people that card costs more than rent for the month, so just skip it.
GAMEPLAN
Step 1) Cast Neheb as fast as possible.
Step 2) Deal symmetrical damage, swing in.
Step 3) Go infinite with Aggressive Assault or cast a spell where X is, like, six trillion.
We're not interested in things like "Midrange" or "Control". No. We're Neheb. We're here to get high scores on the "How much damage can I make without going infinite" leaderboards. This is not a deck that does anything besides slam into people. It explodes. It goes absolutely haywire, totally off the rails, you'll need a calculator to check your mana.
This deck exists for one reason and one reason only: This deck is for Burn Timmies. Is it competitive? Eh. Does it win a lot? Eh. Does the fear in the eyes of your opponents make this deck worth it? Yes.
For your consideration, Nuclear Neheb: https://www.archidekt.com/decks/1072303#NUCLEAR_NEHEB

Betting Early and Price Shopping
 
This graph shows my units gained and ROI from betting ATP tennis in 2019 & 2020. The blue line is my actual results over 615 bets in that time period. These are the odds I actually bet the matches at. The stats are as follows: 352-250-13, +77.32u, +8.9% ROI, +1.94% CLV, +12.3 average cents of CLV per bet, and I beat the closing line 70% of the time. You can see all my past bets here. Note: FWIW, people calculate CLV differently. I calculate it as the % difference in implied probability, some people do the expected value % way.
I decided to chart my returns as if I had made every bet at Pinnacle's closing line, the red line on the graph. The difference is quite noticeable. My returns betting at the closing line over those same 615 bets are as follows: +35.8u, +4.3% ROI. Getting on lines as early as possible (assuming you're on the right side) and shopping for the best prices even if its only between 2 or 3 books can make a massive difference in your results. I personally only shopped between BetOnline and Bookmaker as these books are better for tennis, but you could only imagine the insane advantage you could get shopping between 7-8 different books. Obviously many of us on sportsbook knew this was the case in theory, but I thought it would be cool for everyone to see the difference it can make over the longer-term: over multiple years and over 500+ bets, the added value from betting early and shopping for the best price will magnify your returns. After all, not many people track their results long enough to see this change. We're talking about getting only a 12 cent head start on the closing line, doubled my return after 600 picks.
It seems not all Pinnacle closing lines are as efficient as made out to be
 
I was a bit surprised to see my results at close still had a 4.3% ROI over 600 bets. This return over that sample is beginning to become statistically significant. Pinnacle is known for having some of the sharpest closing lines in the business. Now tennis isn't on the same level as, say, English Premier league, but what gives here?
This graph made by Pinnacle charts over 136,000 odds on tennis matches spanning from 2015-2019. As you can see there is an incredibly high degree of efficiency between the implied win % from the odds and the actual win % of those matches. (Note: the blue line is slightly below the yellow as the bookmaker's margin is not removed). Similarly, here is your ROI by odds groupings if you had blindly bet the Pinnacle closing line of every ATP main draw match since 2010. There's clearly a favorite-longshot bias in play here as underdog ROI's are in the negative double digits, but it seems Pinnacle's ATP closing lines are pretty efficient.
Obviously, my results betting at close vs the empirical data of over tens of thousands of ATP matches on Pinnacle are beginning to contradict each other. My opinion is that is that, although it’s true that Pinnacle closing lines are a great, if not the best, estimator of the true probabilities of a tennis match, this is only true ON AVERAGE. As bettors, we have the distinct advantage of being able to select bets where we believe the market is wrong. We don't have to bet every single match or game. In the span of 2019 and 2020 there were roughly 16,000 ATP and Challenger level tennis matches; I only bet about 3% of them.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Pinnacle just fucks up on pricing a small percentage of their bets. On the other hand, a prevailing theory may also be that there is some sort of price anchoring going on between Pinnacle and their customers betting into the line. From Joseph Buchdahl's article on Pinnacle: "Let’s suppose instead that when a price longer than the ‘true’ price is published, it is more likely that it will close still longer than the ‘true’price. Conversely, when a shorter than ‘true’ price is published it is more likely to close still shorter than ‘true’. Why should this be the case? Well, since the ‘true’ price remains unknown, both to the bookmaker and their customers, the actual value of the opener could be hypothesized to act as a kind of anchor or reference point which biases judgement and restricts the magnitude of future movements. Sure, pricing mistakes will be exploited, but possibly not by as much as they should be. That, at least, is the idea" of price anchoring.
He goes on to say: The majority of bettors will probably look at the odds before deciding whether to bet rather than undertaking their own analysis to determine a ‘true’ outcome probability. Thus, when a bettor sees a bookmaker’s price of 2.25, they might take the view that the ‘true’ price is 2.05, and not 2.00. The act of observing the 2.25 may influence their judgement to the extent that they will deviate away from the ‘true’ price and towards the anchor price. A similar argument can be applied to prices shorter than ‘true’."
So, it's possible that there is some amount of price anchoring going on, and these closing prices are closing not long enough or not short enough from their fair values. It's also possible that I've just been getting astronomically lucky for the past two years, but we can only guess until I submit more bets.
CLV Matters
 
Although not all of these closing lines are efficient, my results are better as my CLV improves. See some of these stats for reference.

• When getting positive no-vig CLV: +66.78u, +16.0 ROI% over 291 bets
• When getting negative no-vig CLV: +10.55u, +2.33% ROI over 324 bets

When my closing line value does not even beat out the bookmaker's vig, the returns are a measly +10u over 324 bets. When I overcome the juice, my ROI skyrockets to 16% over 291 bets.
Lessons learned / Advice
 

• Bet as early as your bet size will allow and shop for the best prices. It will lower the sportsbook's hold and will vastly improve your returns. This is the easiest way to improve your edge right off the bat. I think my results showed this.
  
• Perhaps focus your betting on less efficient markets. Want to bet NFL or NBA for example? Focus on player props, instead of sides and totals. You're more likely to have an actual edge and are also more likely to find prices way off from the rest of the market
  
• If you do decide to dabble in more efficient (hard-to-beat) markets, keep track of your CLV. Once you obsess over beating the closing line you become more price sensitive and more process oriented rather than results oriented. Your focus shifts to accumulating expected value over time that will produce results in the "long-term", rather than "trying to pick winners." on a day-to-day basis. CLV isn't the ultimate proxy for success, there are some exceptions, but the benefits a bettor achieves from making this his / her main focus cannot be overstated.
  

Anyways, sorry for the long post; hope you enjoyed the read. If you want to follow me this tennis season, I post everything in the Tennis Daily thread. I also have a telegram channel that you can follow so that you get notifications of when I bet. Reddit isn't always the best medium for sharing plays. The next tournament is in a few weeks with the Australian Open right around the corner. Best of luck!

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GET RICH QUICK GUIDE, YOU WILL HAVE TO SPEND TIME AND EFFORT TO BE ONE OF THE RICHEST IN THIS BOT. (or be incredibly lucky and win the lottery 24 times daily or 5 trophy giveaways daily)
Beginners Guide to Your First Trophy (for gambling)
Easiest way, win a giveaway or the Dank Memer Lottery. Lets assume that you aren't that lucky.
1, Trading, buy low sell high. You can find cheat banks for sale sometimes and there are many people willing to may much more for what you bought them for as long as you sell in bulk.
2, Voting, lets say you can get 13 votes each week, you'll get 29 banks and 29 pizza. (extra 3 banks and pizza from weekend boost). Banks at the moment sell for 250k each (or more) and pizza sells for 100k each. That's 10mil every week. (7.25 mil from banks and 2.9mil from pizza)
3, Heists, Join large Dank Memer servers and join the friendly heists held regularly by those servers. (Not giving a list of servers just incase this post gets taken down by the Dank Memer Reddit Mods) The Dank Memer Community Server has a lot of daily heists you can join. Make sure you don't have a lot of money in your wallet because of fines. You can buy items to get rid of wallet money, preferably pepe coins and pepe medals. Or you could find a friend to hold your money. (Don't use an alt or friend that doesn't use Dank Memer you'll get bot b@nned, Trust me it's a bad idea) You should be able to get a good 1-2mil daily or more from heists alone.
4, Rob Servers, After you've joined multiple large Dank Memer Servers, they will most likely have a rob server list. These servers have Dank Memer in them and rob enabled. With a robbers wishlist you can try to find people to rob. Not sure how effective this is but you can make an decent amount of money from it if you're lucky.
Use a mix or all 4 of these methods (Voting and Heists are the least risky safest ways to make money) Until you can afford a trophy, you can trade for one or buy from shop. Doesn't really matter. While your grinding for your trophy, I also recommend prestigeing as much as possible. You may get your trophy slightly slower but that extra multi 2% multi per prestige is worth it. You should be prestige 4-6 by the time you can afford a trophy if you're actively grinding and prestigeing once a week.
6 pepe medals, 50-60 pepe coins, or 500+ pizza is enough to guarantee a Trophy if you're trading with Others.
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Beginners Guide to Gambling
1, 80% multi (I would recommend 90% minimum) (some people gamble with 75%)
2, Decent sized bank (I recommend 5mil minimum, and also 10mil total bank and wallet. You can always go higher if you want to minimize the chances of going broke)
3, only pls bet maxnote: don't do slots max with low bank space or low multi, slots has extremely stupid win and loss patterns making slots max with low bank a bad idea. A slots losing streak and a bet losing streak with bankrupt you 90% of the time. However, if you have 100%+ multi and like 20mil+ bank space, go for it. (I've lost 30mil once to a bad bet and slots lose streak combined so don't say I didn't warn you [and before you ask, I did make it back the same day and then some] )
4, hope you get lucky and don't losing all your coins to a bad lose streak or a period of extremely low win rate.
Extra tips:
If you keep losing gambling games, switch a channel or server.
Break up your commands with other commands. I use "pls use tr" or "pls bj max"
You can also try changing from max to 500k or 5e5.
You can also try adding text to the end of your gambling games like saying "pls bet max hi".
I have no clue if any of these things help or is just pure superstition, but do it anyways, can't hurt to try (unless it's bj max lol)
This is my gambling stats: https://imgur.com/a/tbgiyEz (Outdated)
Here is a list of known Secret multipliers. (may be outdated)

1. Level up rewards (+10%)
2. Tidepod (+25)
3. Own 69+ Pink Phallics (+0.5%)
4. Prestige 1-10 (+2% per)
5. 69+ Server Emojis (+1%)
6. #dank-memer (“dank memer” in channel name) (+1%)
7. Sharing GOD (+3%)
8. SANTA BUT BETTER (+3%)
9. Upvoted -vote for the bot w/ pls vote (+1%)
10. Auto-Lottery On (+0.5%)
11. Tips Enabled - tips enabled pls settings (+1%)
12. Streak - Daily streak 7-69 (0.25-2)
13. Premium Server (+2%)
14. Partner Server (+10%)
15. Staff Pet - name pet any DMO staff (+1%)
16. DM Notifications On (+0.5%)
17. Pepe Trophy (+15%)
18. Cupid Toe (+69%)
19. Spinner (+5-25%)
20. Vote Reminder On (+0.5%)
21. Won Lottery (+1%)
22. 📷 Old Mfer - @ Level 250 (+3%)
23. 📷 Donator - 50M (+3%)
24. Previously Black-listed (-1%)
25. Passive On (-5%)
26. 500+ trivia wins (0.5%)
27. 500+ fight wins (0.5%)
28. 500+ number guess wins (0.5%)
29. 500+ ttt wins (0.5%)
30. Level 69, nice (69%)
31. Level 30+ Pet (0.5%)

COST REAL MONEY!

1. Dank Memer Support Booster (+2%)
   
2. 📷 DMC Booster only in DMC (+3%)
   
3. Donor (2-45%)
   
4. Purchased Lootbox (+1%)
   

This list is from Bot Farm I claim 0 credit for making it.
The 📷 Means this multi only works in the Dank Memer community server
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Beginners Guide to Fighting
IDK ask an experienced fighter with 50+ trophies how to do it, I've heard that there are apparently "losing" and "winning" streaks during fighting too. Generally I wouldn't advise this but many people have gotten it to work. My friend has 3 blobs and 50 trophies from fighting so its definitely possible to make a lot of money this way.
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Beginners Guide to Trading
Just use your brain, it's not hard.
Well if you want to, then I guess just follow the principle buy low sell high. Try to find a loop of items to trade, sell or buy that gives you a net profit. Like buying and selling banks, or trading a Trophy for items you can then sell which gives enough money for another Trophy and some extra. You could always hope you get lucky and the item you stockpiled suddenly spikes in price. (Like how banks went from "30k is too expensive" to "200k each? that's pretty cheap")
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In the end just do whatever you want to make money, these are just some tips from a random person. It's your choice to trust or disregard this post.
If you think I missed anything or want to call me an idiot cause this post sucks or have questions. Feel free to comment.

Preface: Please note that my intent here is just to theorize and share my ideas; I’m not looking for WN spoilers to (assuming it's explained) reveal the ‘correct’ answer. If you do comment any spoilers for post-P3V3 content, please be sure to spoiler-tag and label them appropriately!
Word count: 4667. Read at your own risk lol.

Introduction

I wasn’t around to discuss P2V4 on JNC when it came out, and I’m too nervous to necro its forum thread and potentially reignite debate there, so I’m writing out my thoughts here instead. This is my attempt at thinking through what we do and don’t know about the 'get Myne adopted' scheme, parsing between what was part of the plan and what went haywire, and trying to write out a sort of timetable of events that led to P2V4’s resolution. Thoughts / interpretations / viewpoints / pointing out I forgot something all welcome.
As far as what inspired me to write this up, some time back, I thought that the “black charm” Syl gave Myne couldn’t have been the overarching plan for Myne’s adoption. I then forgot where I first got the idea from (lol), only to recently go back through P2V3 and remember exactly what sparked it – the prologue, when Ferdie talks to Kars. Piecemeal, we get:

“She showed an enormous amount of mana to everyone,” Karstedt began. “Rumors have spread like wildfire through the Noble’s Quarter with the Knight’s Order at the center of it all. Myne will be in even more danger now than she was before.”
“Undoubtedly. Her mana was more extraordinary than I had anticipated. Although I declared that she was under my custody, I am ultimately no more than a mere priest. Nobles seeking mana will hunt her down, and one day she will be put in harm’s way. It is impossible to say whether I will be able to stave off all of their advances.” [...]
“What will you do, then?”
“I would ask you to adopt Myne,” requested Ferdinand [...]
“...I am willing to adopt her, but there are some who would find fault with you for requesting my help before anyone else’s, no?”
Ferdinand could guess who Karstedt was referring to. His expression darkened and he drummed his temple while saying “Must everyone be so difficult to deal with...?”

Ferdie is specifically asking Kars to adopt Myne here, not Syl – in fact, he’s purposefully avoiding letting Syl in on the initial conversation altogether. (Granted, the identity of the ‘other person’ is never stated, but it’s undoubtedly Syl in hindsight.) As Ferdie is alone with Kars here, there’s no reason to believe he’s trying to pull the wool over anyone’s eyes.
And yet, when P2V4 is resolved, we get the following (Sylvester – Cleaning up the Mess):

Once the presence of people outside the door faded, Ferdinand let out a low sigh. “And so, our plan worked. We’ve accomplished our goals.”
“...Yep.”
We’d secured Myne, who had refused to sign with a noble and tried running away for as long as she possibly could [...]
“Not too shabby. I’ve got a real bad taste in my mouth, though.” If you ignored how awful it felt to purposefully lead my mother into a trap and then rip apart a happy family, then sure, today was a pretty good day.
“Don’t be so hard on yourself, Sylvester. This was the best possible outcome.”
“The end doesn’t always justify the means, y’know?” Whenever something happened that led to me getting called black-hearted or cold and calculating, you could bet that Ferdinand’s plots were to blame. Most of the time, anyway. [...]
“What about Rozemyne, then? You don’t feel anything about erasing Myne from existence and turning her into Rozemyne?”
“...I think this is the fastest and most efficient means of giving her a brighter future.”

Despite some guilt, Ferdie now thinks being adopted by Syl is the best thing to do, and based on Syl’s internal complaint, the plan was probably Ferdie’s idea – it wasn’t something Syl randomly brought to fruition according to his whims, nor was he hiding his intentions from Ferdie.
Clearly, something changed Ferdie’s perspective between the beginning of P2V3 and the end of P2V4 – the question is, when and why did it change? Which means... timeline time.

The (Relevant) Events of P2V3

• Prologue: Ferdie asks Kars to adopt Myne, intentionally avoiding involving Syl in the discussion.
  • As aforementioned, we have no reason to think Ferdie is lying here. The OG plan is for Kars to adopt Myne, end of story.
• Punishment for the Knight’s Order and My Future: Ferdie discusses with Myne the prospect of being adopted by Kars. She immediately rejects the idea and has a panic attack; Ferdie compromises with her by saying she can wait until she turns 10 to be adopted.
  • Ferdie will later admit when talking to Myne’s parents that “[he] thought she would give in if both her parents agreed to it,” so the ‘age 10’ thing is merely temporary appeasement.
  • Syl hasn’t been introduced yet and nothing has happened to warrant Syl-adoption over Kars-adoption, so we can safely assume they’re not lying about Kars-adoption this early on.
• Completion of the Metal Letter Types: We don’t really get the full details until later (The Title of ‘Gutenberg’) because our dear protagonist faints midway through the conversation, but this is a turning point where some people (read: Damuel and Benno) can clearly see how printing will change history.
  • This is the sort of thing Ferdie needs to report to Syl – but Ferdie later states that he originally didn’t fully understand Damuel’s report because he hadn’t seen the press in person (Visit to the Orphanage and Workshop), so whatever potential report he gives to Syl isn’t necessarily a game changer. At most, it likely just further piques Syl’s interest in Myne.
• Temple Stay Extended: Myne learns she must stay at the temple for longer than expected, because Wolf suddenly died and she’s at risk of being targeted by nobles. Ferdie explains the situation to Gunther and Effa, also mentioning the restrictions that have been set by the Knight’s Order upon nobles entering the city. He then describes the eventual necessity of Myne’s adoption, and although he doesn’t mention Kars by name, he again cites Myne turning 10 as the deadline. Both Effa and Gunther give approval for the adoption at age 10.
  • I’ll give Ferdie the benefit of the doubt and assume Wolf died at the hands of a noble who was upset over Wolf’s failure, and not by Ferdie attempting to scheme Myne into staying at the temple longer – simply because her stay is only extended through Spring Prayer, and the adoption scheme occurs decently after that, right at the end of spring.
  • This is where Ferdie murmurs about hoping for immediate adoption. As he didn’t bring up anything regarding treating Myne as Kars’s birth daughter – which would be necessary if the printing press had changed his view and he now wants them to agree to Syl-adoption in the conversation – presumably he’s still shooting for Kars-adoption at this time.
  • However, the ‘easy’ plan (parents agreeing to immediate adoption) is shot down, so there’s a good chance this is when ‘scheme’ plans (force Myne into adoption) are now on the table. Though Ferdie may have hoped for the ‘easy’ plan to work, he would be prepared for its failure, which explains why the limitations on nobility – far too restrictive to be upheld for the next two-odd years for Myne’s sake alone – were already put into place before the meeting.
  • As a side note, Syl is now confirmed to be involved with the plan, as he’s the one in charge of restricting or allowing access to Ehrenfest. He was probably informed sometime earlier, but this is the first time we see the archduke taking relevant action in-text.
• Preparing for Spring Prayer: Myne dreads travelling via carriage and asks for an alternative; the day before the trip, Ferdie announces they’ll be going by highbeast instead and introduces Syl as a blue priest.
  • Syl’s introduction is an “urgent matter” brought up very last-minute; the suddenness of it (plus Ferdie’s grimacing, though that might be due to Syl in general lol) makes this change appear to be one of Syl’s whims rather than a trio-concocted scheme. Had Syl determined it was important to personally meet and judge Myne based on the Damuel -> Ferdie -> Syl flow of information regarding the printing press, this would have been determined long ago and Ferdie wouldn’t be so rushed to change plans.
• Ambush: Spring Prayer goes normally for some time: they travel by highbeast, occasionally switching to carriages and having Myne wear a veil to hide her face. The group avoids staying at Viscount Gerlach’s and instead stays at Count Liesegang’s, only for two brigands to enter Kars’s room at night looking to kidnap Myne. Both brigands kill themselves before they can be questioned. The next morning, Myne & co. are ambushed by several dozen commoners with weapons who aim to attack the carriages, and Myne casts a ridiculously large Wind shield to protect them, marking herself as a “dangerous threat” to nobles.
  • This event seems the most likely to warrant consideration of a transition from Kars-adoption to Syl-adoption. Spring Prayer was focused on keeping Myne hidden, only for her to shoot off a huge beacon detailing exactly how powerful she is in a broadcast clear for her enemies (P2V4, Prologue) to see. Kars-adoption was supposedly equipped to handle cross-duchy kidnapping to some extent (Punishment for the Knight’s Order), but its reliability had been determined by the assumed level of danger pre-broadcast, and we are never told explicitly if it remains sufficient or not.
• Visit to the Orphanage and Workshop: Ferdie views the printing press for himself, finally understanding its worth. Syl visits the orphanage and workshop, and then the forest a few days later, gathering info from the orphans on their view of Myne (P2V4, Leon – Sylvester Undercover). Afterwards, he pulls out a “protection charm” for her – the adoption necklace – and tells her that if she’s ever in a “bad spot,” she can put her blood on it, and he’ll come save her. He emphasizes she should never take it off.
  • Presumably, Syl doesn’t just walk around with adoption contract necklaces lining his pockets 24/7, so he must have prepared it beforehand. We don’t know how long it takes to obtain one, but even if it was only decided on post-ambush, Syl had the rest of Spring Prayer and the days leading up to his forest visit to prepare it, which sounds plausible enough.
  • Recalling Syl’s comment post-scheme resolution about how Ferdie is usually the machinator, we can assume Syl doesn't pass the necklace along in secret. Both Ferdie and Kars should be aware of it.
• Epilogue: One of the High Bishop’s associates (Bindewald) is planning a visit to Ehrenfest, as he is seeking a child with the Devouring.
  • This is the next step of HB’s ‘remove Myne from my sight’ plan, formulated in the aftermath of Spring Prayer (P2V4, Prologue). Because Myne’s actions at Spring Prayer were unplanned, Ferdie couldn’t have taken into account beforehand the level of response it would get, though he can still intercept or take advantage of any plots so long as he learns of them.

The Status of the Plan

If the above is accurate, we know both the ‘when’ and the ‘why’ of the major shift in plans: Myne’s actions during Spring Prayer. While originally just Kars-adoption was fine, and there were suggestions of a plan in motion to facilitate its attainment before Myne turns 10, Spring Prayer puts Myne in enough danger to warrant a Syl-adoption for her safety, resulting in Syl handing over the necklace as the first step in the new plan. So, are we all good on the plan’s formulation and can move forward to analyzing its application in P2V4?
Nay! Nay, I say!
As it stands, I take issue with ‘the scheme to get Myne on the adoption fast-track is the necklace,’ simply because it’s really sloppy. If that plan is the basis of the adoption scheme, the entire thing becomes completely reliant on the single act of Myne signing the adoption contract – which is very shake grounds to hinge a plan on. In a general sense, we have three potential issues: (1) the availability of the necklace, (2) the presence of Myne’s blood, and (3) sufficient trust in Syl.

1. The availability of the necklace. There are several ways this can go wrong, the first being if Myne just ignores Syl and never wears the necklace again. That much is easy enough for Ferdie to notice beforehand, and he can probably figure out how to get her to start wearing it. However, Myne generally wearing the necklace doesn’t preclude the possibility she just so happens to forget it the day of. Because the timing of the scheme relies on HB’s actions, Ferdie can’t tell HB “sorry, try again tomorrow” if he notices she isn’t wearing it that day. And atop all that, even if she does wear the necklace, the chains or clasp could break during the day at random or even amidst the kidnapping scuffle – and a lost necklace means no contract.
2. The presence of Myne’s blood. The lower city kidnapping attempt is facilitated by HB, not Ferdie, meaning he has no control over the specifics of the attack. When things play out in-text, Myne only has blood to sign the necklace with because she scrapes her knees when she’s dropped; she could’ve not been dropped, or her injuries could’ve not resulted in any blood, both of which would prevent use of the charm. Unless, of course, Myne willingly bleeds herself for the sake of signing the necklace, but she’s not a ‘bite my thumb dramatically’ sort of protagonist. We’ve repeatedly seen her fear having to sign magic contracts with blood – as has Ferdie in P2V1, The Meeting Begins, and technically also P1V3, A Quiet Commotion, although he might not remember Myne’s baptism. Assuming Myne would injure herself on the spot to use the charm is a non sequitur.
3. Sufficient trust in Syl. We know from experience how Myne is far too trusting of people, to the point Benno is surprised she was attentive enough to distrust her attendants to carry her donation back in P2V1. This is probably the easiest issue to overcome as a result, since Syl manages to present himself well enough to Myne – not perfectly, but decently in line with Ferdie’s introductory description of “good heart beneath his rotten everything else.” But at the same time, were Myne to waver at all or otherwise not feel it’s worth calling on Syl for help, she could simply not sign the charm and be on her way.

When everything else is being meticulously plotted out, it seems ridiculous for Ferdie’s adoption scheme to rely entirely on a single unplannable moment, enough so that despite constantly seeing evidence to suggest otherwise, it’s almost easier for me to imagine Syl tacked on the charm in secret as a haphazard backup plan. Okay, that’s probably a bit mean to Syl, but this is Ferdie we’re talking about, Mr. “I only start fights that I know I can win” himself. Relying on Myne signing the charm is inherently not a fight he can be certain he will win.
As such, my next thought is that the plan therefore doesn’t hinge on Myne signing the necklace.
Let’s consider the ‘perfect’ scenario (from Myne’s perspective): the downtown attack leaves her uninjured, and she makes her way to Ferdie without any toady interruptions, the necklace unsigned. She would still be scared, but since she didn’t get into an altercation and her family isn’t at risk of being executed, I don’t think Ferdie could coerce her into leaving behind her family to sign with Syl. Recalling Tuuli being in danger would probably be enough for Myne to sign with Kars immediately, though.
In contrast, the ‘perfect’ scenario (from Ferdie’s perspective): the downtown attack either injures or otherwise frightens Myne enough for her to sign the necklace. I’m not sure whether the plan was for Myne to avoid the HB altogether or for Ferdie to swoop in before things get physical, but either way, Myne still avoids directly battling any nobles – which means that, again, her family is not at risk of execution. If Ferdie’s ideal is met and she’s already signed the contract, he might at least attempt keeping it in place, but Ferdie is presumably aware of the very much non-zero possibility of Myne’s ideal playing out.
All of this is to posit the idea that, rather than being the main goal of the adoption plan, Syl’s charm is more of a bonus feature slash contingency plan. As a bonus feature, it works in the case Ferdie’s scenario wins out over Myne’s, and they can try promoting Syl-adoption over Kars-adoption. As a contingency plan, it works to protect Myne in the case that something goes wrong (which it does lol). And, to be pedantic, the post-resolution quote I mentioned at the beginning does still line up with this concept: Ferdie simply says “our plan worked. We’ve accomplished our goals,” and Syl follows up with the thought “we’d secured Myne, who had refused to sign with a noble and tried running away for as long as she possibly could.” Ferdie or Syl could have explicitly said their main goal was Syl-adoption, but instead their statements are left ambiguous.
If this is the case, the creation of the updated plan around the end of P2V3 would be as such: after Myne jeopardizes her safety through her actions during Spring Prayer, Ferdie & co. have increased need of backups in case things go askew, as they usually do when Myne is involved. They shoot for catching HB, his conspirators, and Veronica through the forgery, and for Myne to agree to immediate Kars-adoption to prevent future kidnapping attempts. And in case things go haywire, which Ferdie would absolutely want to avoid, the charm can act as a safety net.
Now let us examine how the scheme plays out in-text.

The (Relevant) Events of P2V4

• Prologue: We touched on this a bit already; HB and his cronies are behind the events at Spring Prayer. Having revealed his Darkness feystone, Bindewald is now officially in cahoots with HB for the ‘remove Myne from my sight’ scheme.
  • Although Ferdie doesn’t have incriminating evidence at this time, he knows to some extent who HB is associated with, as that knowledge determined who Myne wore a veil in front of during Spring Prayer (P3V1, Elvira and Lamprecht Attack). This means he knows who to keep an eye on for suspicious activity.
• Both Sides of the Story: An emergency bell rings out one afternoon and Damuel whisks Myne home. Gunther reveals that a non-Ehrenfest noble attempted to enter the city without a permit and was refused entry.
  • Bindewald tried initiating the kidnapping, only to fail because HB was never informed of the latest entry permission changes for nobles (The Two Who Left). Obviously, this notifies Ferdie of Bindewald’s involvement.
• The Two Who Left: Damuel tells Gunther to inform all the gates to not let in any nobles, as the archduke is away for the Archduke Conference, meaning permits might be forged. Delia takes Dirk to HB and gets him an “adoption” (read: submission) contract with Bindewald. For the first time, HB wants Myne to visit his chambers, tipping off both Fran and Myne that something must be up.
  • Damuel’s message comes from Ferdie, passing it along in a strange chain of command (blue priest -> apprentice knight -> gate captain -> gate commander, rather than as a direct order from the Knight’s Order) at an unusual time (Syl has already left for the conference). This is part of the plan, probably instituted because Gunther is a soldier working at the gate – the east gate at that, which connects to the main outside road and is therefore the most trafficked (P1V3, Epilogue).
• The Shadow Falls: Otto finds Myne and explains that while Gunther immediately informed his commander about the issue with the permits, Bindewald slipped in before the east gate commander informed his subordinates. As Damuel sends out an emergency flare, Tuuli and Myne are briefly kidnapped; Myne is saved by Gunther and helps rescue Tuuli immediately. Having fallen and scraped her knees, Myne decides to use her blood on the “protection charm,” and Gunther carries her back to the temple for safekeeping.
  • Either the east gate commander is incompetent and deserves to be fired, or they were told by Ferdie & co. to keep their mouth shut and let Bindewald pass. Under the hopeful assumption that incompetents aren’t being assigned commander, it’s probably the latter. It makes Gunther think that Ferdie is doing everything in his power to foil their enemies, which prevents him from complaining about the measures taken as a result of the (orchestrated) failure to protect Myne as a commoner.
  • Here is the big ‘lucky break’ of the plan, where Myne bleeds and decides to sign the charm. It would sorta suck if Myne made it safely to Ferdie after this, only to be informed she absolutely has to be re-written as Rozemyne and adopted by Syl; magic contracts can be voided with the consent of all parties (P2V3, Meeting of the Minds), so that’s always an option, but I wonder if Ferdie would allow that when it’s already been signed. In the end it would be up to Myne and Syl though, and Syl might be willing to cancel it if the safety measure is unneeded.
• The Noble from Another Duchy: Arno intentionally lies to Fran about Ferdie’s absence (Arno – Fran and I), but when Damuel says that Ferdie isn’t with the knights, they go back to check again, only to run into HB and Bindewald. A fight ensues when the baddies try to force Myne to sign a submission contract.
  • Surprisingly, it’s Arno rather than Myne who sends the plan into disarray. Had Fran’s message gotten through the first time, Myne should have gotten to Ferdie safely, wrapping up everything in a neat and tidy bow just the way Ferdie wanted it: a sufficiently scared (but not truly life-endangered) Myne ready to be persuaded into immediate adoption.
• The Black Charm: Ferdie finally comes out from his room, understandably shocked at the fight playing out in front of him. He tries extracting info from HB and Bindewald, only for them to claim Myne attacked them. Ferdie talks to Myne, who brings up having signed the charm, and he reveals that Myne and her family can avoid execution if she agrees to be adopted by Syl, which she does. With that determined, Ferdie casts Divine Smite on the baddies while Myne protects herself and her allies with a Wind shield.
  • A brief tangent, to discuss Myne’s overarching observations of Ferdie’s emotions.
    • When Ferdie talks to Myne in this scene, she notes “his eyes [are] sad and full of sympathy,” and he shows “a brief flash of pain on his face.” Then, when she reveals the necklace, “he stared at the stone for a solid second, then widened his eyes in disbelief” before “his flat expression [was] replaced with a gentle smile.”
    • As most of the series is told from Myne’s POV, we normally get her interpretation of events – but those evaluations are generally relatively spot-on and representative of the matter at hand. This includes her descriptions of Ferdie, which are built upon several volumes of exposure. She experiences an emotional Ferdie throughout the falling action of P2V2, where he is apologetic after the trombe extermination (“his tone was dripping with frustration and remorse”) and teary-eyed after use of the mind-reading tool (she hugs him to calm both their emotions). There are many instances of Rozemyne seeing through Ferdie’s “grin” to detect the “evil” underneath – just look at how often it happens in P3V2 (A New Task and Winter Preparations, Hasse’s Contract, My Winter Preparations, Starting Merchant Activities), where the text repeatedly suggests that she not only has her finger on the pulse of his emotions, but also that she can read between the lines of what he presents versus how he actually feels. Not to mention the countless times she sees the brunt force of his displeasure – often aimed towards her lol – up close and personal. She even picks up on his “scientist” mode the rare occasions it appears (P3V2, The Monastery’s Barrier; P3V3, The Night of Flutrane).
    • Granted, Myne is probably running off a lot of adrenaline during P2V4’s climax and isn’t in maximally efficient ‘analyze Ferdie’ mode, but based on her many observations of his mood across P2 and P3, I’m inclined to trust her interpretations of his presentation here as predominantly truth rather than complete façade.
  • So, why does Ferdie feel this way? It’s because things are no longer going all according to keikaku. Myne ended up in a direct scuffle with HB and Bindewald, and unless she happened to sign the contract – which was never a guarantee – she’s now extremely screwed. So he wheedles her for a bit, sincerely worried (though I imagine “eyes sad and full of sympathy” are Myne-speak for something like ‘eyebrows furrowed 2 cm. closer together than usual’), and is legitimately happy he can take action when she reveals the already-signed charm. Of course, she is indeed slightly off the mark, since his worries are ‘the plan was messed with and Myne might die’ rather than ‘how awful, Myne might die,’ but Ferdie isn’t about to correct her on that.
• The Source of Strife: Syl and Kars arrive, and the trio finally closes the noose around HB and Bindewald (and Veronica) for all their crimes.
  • Santa, get. Toad, get. Mother Gothel, get. Goodbye, faction opposing Syl as archduke.
• The New Me: They decide to commit money laundering, but with identities. It is announced that Effa, Gunther, Tuuli, and Kamil will no longer be Myne’s family. I am very sad.
• Ripped Apart: Myne becomes Rozemyne; the Syl-adoption contract and all its particulars are completed. Idk why I read the whole chapter when I knew it would make me cry.
• Sylvester – Cleaning Up the Mess: We’re back to what I mentioned at the very beginning, where the trio applauds a successful plan. The scheme is complete.

Final Thoughts

Arno screwed the plan up in a very simple but major way; had Ferdie not eventually left his room, Myne could truly have ended up kidnapped, what with all her guards beaten and her lack of physical strength. Luckily, Ferdie does leave his room, and Myne signed the necklace downtown, leading to what I guess is the second-best possible ending of the scheme, where things go wrong but everything still gets accomplished.
My view of the events of P2V4 arose specifically from the question of “why would Ferdie rely on the adoption necklace,” which I think is worth asking once you observe the supposed transition from Kars-adoption to Syl-adoption. Considering that the original plan was Kars-adoption, Myne is never told pre-scuffle that Syl-adoption is now legitimately necessary because of safety issues, and we later see in P3 exactly how close Kars is to the archducal family, I don’t think Syl-adoption was ever truly a ‘must obtain’ goal until Arno botched things.
I’ve done a lot more thinking on this topic than I ever needed to, so I’m curious as to how it lines up with other people’s understanding of events. Did I miss something important? Did I consider something you never thought of? I’m eager to hear anyone’s personal thoughts on the whole scheme and the intent behind it.
And of course, if you got through this wall of text, thank you for reading! Happy Saturday, y’all.

Introduction

Last year, I finally got around to completing the grind to six T4 commendation ranks on both my Temporal and Gamma recruits. I had held off on this due to the perceived difficulty in doing so, and because the available information on doffing is essentially years out of date. With the help of a variety of resources and advice, I was able to complete this work in a far shorter amount of time than I expected. It was at that point that I first considered collating what I had learned into a new doffing guide.
The 2/27 changes to Admiralty pushed me over the edge. With the easy Dilithium from Admiralty removed, restoring older methods of Dil-farming became far more imperative. For a long time, doffing was one of the easiest of these. A variety of changes to the system, however, have made it not more difficult but less intuitive. With a proper guide, Dil-farming through Contraband Marauding and/or Colonial assignment chaining should be just as easy as it was previously. My goal is to provide that guide--and a broader guide to doffing as well.
Note that this is still a work in progress. I am releasing it now because of the recruitment event in progress, but I do intend to expand on all points which are simply outlined below.

Version History

0.1: Alpha release. Targeted areas for improvement besides incomplete sections include a more comprehensive guide to marauding (once I experiment with it a little more), a more accurate ranking of commendation difficulties (where exactly do Diplomacy, Exploration, Marauding, and Development rank compared to the rest?), and more information on dilithium grinding (most of which I know primarily second-hand).

What is Doffing?

A long time ago, STO included something called "Exploration Clusters." These areas included procedurally-generated missions of... questionable quality, mostly revolving around giving a random NPC a certain amount of commodities. This system was eventually removed for many reasons--one of them being that the missions it gave felt like something lower-ranking officers should be doing.
To replace it, the Duty Officer system was introduced. It allows players to assign duty officers ("doffs") to missions that are more fitting of a junior officer--auditing diplomatic correspondence, correlating star charts, etc. These missions take place "in the background," so to speak, and happen in real-world time. In essence, they are "fire and forget:" assign your officers, wait some real-world number of hours, and reap the rewards.
And speaking of rewards: through the doffing system, it is possible to earn XP, dilithium, energy credits, rare commodities, equipment, special bridge officers, and even additional doffs. When managed correctly, doffing can be quite lucrative on a number of levels.

What Makes A (Good) Doff

The short answer is that almost every element of a doff in some way influences how useful that doff is. Some elements, however, are more important than others. In this section, I will explain the various traits of a doff and how they impact gameplay.
Faction
Most doffs are aligned to a faction--either FED, KDF, or ROM, with the vast majority being either FED or KDF (and consequently usable by those faction's allies). Cross-faction doffs do also exist, mostly as special rewards or as part of C-Store doff packs. If you are buying doffs from the Exchange, always check to ensure that the doff you are buying is usable by your faction. By default the Exchange lists all doffs, whether your character can use them or not. Caveat emptor.
Rarity
Doffs follow the same rarity scheme as items: Common, Uncommon, Rare, Very Rare, Ultra-Rare, and Epic. The obvious benefit of higher-rarity doffs is that they contribute a higher chance of success to a mission. However, a particularly large benefit when grinding is that they also contribute bonus Commendation XP to a success or crit based on their rarity. Uncommons contribute +5%, Rares +10%, and Very Rare and higher contribute +20%. Thus, in many ways the rarity of a doff is the most important factor when grinding Commendation XP.
R&D School
Some doffs are affiliated with certain R&D schools, allowing them to be used to create certain items. Any more of an in-depth look than that is somewhat outside the scope of this guide; however, do note that R&D doffs are valuable even at lower rarities. Always double-check for this before selling, downgrinding, etc.
Department
Each doff either belongs to one of the six departments (tactical, security, engineering, operations, science and medical) or is a civilian. This is one of the factors that determines which doffs can go on which missions. There is little to say here beyond that civilians are generally worse than the other types, as they qualify for fewer missions.
Specialization
This is the other major sorting mechanism for which doffs can go on what missions. It also determines the doff's ability when added to your active roster. Note that many specializations have more than one ability; usually, the alternate abilities can only be obtained from sources such as lockboxes.
Ability
The ability is what sets the price for doffs, generally speaking. Some abilities are borderline useless; some have created the most famous builds in the game. For example, the Technician variant that boosts Auxiliary Power to the Battery is the entire focal point of A2B builds--and, therefore, Technicians command a very high price. Also of note are Aegis doffs, which function similarly to R&D school doffs. Do note, however, that for the purposes of the doffing mission system abilities do not matter at all.
Traits
Traits give you bonuses to the chances of various outcomes on certain missions. For example, a Peaceful doff may get a bonus on a Diplomacy mission. Do note that when farming Commendation XP, one should try to have as many Critical Success traits as possible but as few Success traits as possible. This is because Success chance cuts into Critical Success chance.
In general, be on the lookout for doffs with the Telekinetic, Shroud, and Resolve traits, as these are required for some very rewarding missions. Efficient is also almost always helpful when it appears. Conversely, Stubborn and Unscrupulous are almost always negative; for any departments other than Tactical or Security, Aggressive is as well.
Bound/Unbound
Like items, doffs can be bound to your character. This will ONLY happen if they are put on active duty. The major disadvantage of binding doffs, aside from not being able to trade them, is that most bound doffs cannot be downground into multiple doffs of lower rarity.
Race, Name, Quote, Etc.
The other descriptive attributes of your doffs are pure flavor and do not matter. Do note, however, that doffs with odd, offensive, or funny names can command a slightly higher price on the exchange.

Obtaining Doffs For Doffing

There are a number of different methods to obtain doffs--some more worthwhile than others. Before you waste time and credits, however, always check to make sure you do not have free doffs waiting.
Doffs You May Already Have

• Deep Space Nine Pack: The DS9 bundle includes three doffs. While most of the bundle can only be used by Federation-aligned characters, Klingon-aligned ones can in fact still claim the doffs through a Klingon version in the Zen store. (It also includes two scaling ground weapons.)
• Legacy of Romulus Legacy Pack: The Legacy of Romulus Pack includes four doffs, available to any Romulan characters across the entire account.
• Delta Rising Operations Pack: The Delta Rising Pack includes three doffs available to all characters on an account, including a Research Lab Scientist (useful for R&D).
• Mirror Universe Bundle: Also sometimes called the Legendary Galaxy Dreadnought Bundle, this bundle does come with one doff.
• Promotions: Several doffs have been given away for free in the past. These include the Lower Decks doffs, Neal Falconer, and the doff version of Holo-Leeta previously given out at conventions.

Worthwhile Assignments Rewarding Doffs

• Asylum assignment type): These allow you to exchange refugees for random doffs. While these are generally good deals, the assignments are somewhat rare to appear and (unlike prisoners) refugees take up slots on your main roster. I would also advise against exchanging high-rarity refugees in these assignments; there are some doff assignments (especially in Medical) that require refugees specifically. Try to match the race of the refugee to the Asylum's planet.
• Caitian Diaspora / Unforgiven of Ferasa assignment chains: Awards a very rare flight deck officer and unlocks a repeatable assignment to get more.
• Colonization mission chains: These are a major source of doffs, as one chain is available in each colonial cluster. They end by rewarding a rare doff and unlocking a repeatable chance at a very rare via critting on an assignment. This is the most common source of Very Rare Technicians.
• Consular Authority assignment chains: Found in the Alpha Quadrant, these chains each end with a repeatable assignment which allow one to trade one doff for one of (likely) equal or better value. Notably, this officer comes unbound--and the officer you send can be bound. Thus, this is an indirect method of "unbinding" officers.
• Cultural Exchange assignments: Available only to the Federation, there are ten of these (one is linked as an example).
• Exchange Prisoners with Dominion: Your best use for rare and very rare prisoners.
• Facility 4028 assignment chain: Rewards a rare prisoner upon completion and unlocks a repeatable assignment, Strike At Fugitive Support Network, which can award rare or very rare prisoners.
• Ghosts of the Jem'Hadar assignment chain: This assignment chain awards a very rare officer upon completion and unlocks a repeatable assignment which awards another on a critical success.
• Holodeck Performance of Hamlet: This assignment always awards a very rare doff on a crit.
• Instigate Defection: It takes a long time to complete, but awards a rare officer on success and a very rare officer on a crit.
• Investigate Temporal Anomaly: A non-repeatable assignment which awards a purple-quality bartender.
• Negotiate Prisoner Exchange: Allows you to trade a prisoner for a new, random doff. This is always a good trade for common prisoners, especially if you already have access to admiralty. Look for other opportunities for rare or very rare prisoners.
• Project Chrysalis assignment chain: This assignment chain awards a very rare officer upon completion.
• Reclaim Assimilated Borg Drones: Awards an uncommon or rare doff on a crit.
• Resettle Colonists: Awards five colonists on success.
• Special Deal on Entertainment Provisions: Awards an entertainer of the same rarity as the assignment on a crit.
• Your faction's academy has department- and race-specific recruitment missions which are free and award common doffs. This is a fine way to fill out your initial roster.
• Finally, many Marauding assignments have a chance of awarding prisoners.

Other Worthwhile Methods

• One of the best methods of helping a new character is mailing them unbound doffs from your other ones. Doffs can be attached to messages at mail terminals just like items.
• At level 11, a character receives their initial consignment of doffs. These are low-rarity, but free. Free is never bad. You will receive a few more as you level up.
• Likewise, when you unlock the R&D system at level 15 you will receive a cadre of common, traitless doffs. They are meant to be used with crafting, but can be used in assignments as normal.
• A number of story missions have doff rewards. These include A Fistful of Gorn, Facility 4028, All That Glitters, A New Warfare, Time In A Bottle, and the Halloween/Friday the 13th special mission Hearts and Minds. Of these, A Fistful of Gorn, All That Glitters, and Hearts and Minds can be replayed for additional duty officers. In addition, a Romulan captain (or one with Rank 4 in Diplomacy/Marauding) can recruit Rai during Mine Enemy.
• A nonrepeatable mission is available at both academies during junior officer weekends that rewards a very rare doff.
• As you are promoted through the Commendation ranks, you will receive free doffs from Lieutenants Ferra or S'stas. Any that you do not select may be purchased with dilithium, though this may be less attractive for higher-rarity options. In addition, Engineering, Security, and Medical commendation ranks will unlock additional doffs via your replicator.
• Admiralty missions will frequently reward colonists and prisoners.
• The Borg doffs available in the Omega Reputation Store are relatively inexpensive, given their quality. This is especially true for marauding Klingons.
• There are a handful of doffs available to buy during the Summer Event. If you are comfortable grinding favors, they are of acceptable quality.
• Several doffs are available through the Phoenix Box. Always check your promotions tab to ensure that you do not already own them--the game will let you buy them even if they're available to claim for free. With that said, if you really need higher-rarity doffs this can be a good source.
• If all else fails, the Exchange usually has exactly what you want. Do note that prices can be quite high.

Methods Which Are NOT Worthwhile

• "Upgrinding," or converting lower-rarity doffs into higher-ranking doffs through the assignments available at a faction academy, is absolutely never worth the time, dilithium, or doff investment. Do note that "downgrinding" assignments can be useful for fleet contributions.
• For similar reasons, the academy recruitment assignments which cost dilithium (general and R&D) are also not worthwhile.
• Fleet doffs can be recruited at many fleet holdings by spending an absolutely outrageous number of fleddits for each doff purchased. This is also never worth it given the cost. The main use of fleet doffs is when you need a specific one for your build.
• The Junior Officer Appreciation Event requires an absolutely outrageous number of particle traces per doff and is not worth doing. (A possible exception is doing it to get common doffs for fleet projects, but even that is highly questionable.)
• The various doff packs available through the C-Store are simply not worth the money based on the random return. The exception is, of course, when they are occasionally given away for free as part of a promotion.
• The various assignment items available from lockboxes or the exchange which can lead to doff rewards are not worth the cost. (There is some disagreement on this point.)

Doffing Builds

Faction
If you are building a character solely for the purposes of doffing, the KDF has many advantages over the Federation in terms of assignment access. You should be a KDF-aligned Romulan, however, as Romulans have access to a third set of doffs the other two factions cannot use. (If you have purchased the Legacy of Romulus Pack, they also have access to four bonus doffs.)
Race
Race only matters for the Federation; Ferengi offer a marginal benefit in reducing the cost of purchased commodities that may be required for missions. This is not generally enough to outweigh the advantages a race might offer other aspects of the character's playstyle. Play whatever race you would like to play.
Ships

• Suliban Cell Ship: One of three (technically four) contenders for the best possible doffing ship, the cell ship interior provides both a Trader contact to receive additional Trade assignments and a Suliban contact to run Tau Dewa Aid chain assignments. Frequently, those who own these will offer bridge invites to players who do not in order to allow them access to these assignments. In addition, it is able to transwarp to any exploration cluster. Unfortunately difficult to obtain in the modern game.
• Tuffli Freighter: The second prime competitor for the best doffing ship in the game, the Tuffli trades the cell ship's unique recruitment assignments for the ability to call a transport ship that can offer Transfer Prisoners and Turn Over Confiscated Contraband. All other features, including the transwarp, remain the same.
• Kobayashi Maru / Tong'Duj: The last two options for the best doffing ship in the game, though they are functionally identical to each other--and the Tuffli. These were a reward from the No Win Scenarios Event in Event Campaign II, and are currently unobtainable. If you have them, use them; if you don't, look on the Exchange for one of the other options.
• D'Kora / Quark / Nandi: These ships come with a trader contact, but also have additional benefits when equipping the Ferengi Marauder set. (I am aware that the Nagus technically works as well. I do not like to think about the Nagus.) The D'Kora is notable for being able to be had fairly inexpensively on the Exchange, and the Nandi for being available for an Epic token from the Phoenix Store.
• Amarie Smuggler's Heavy Escort: This ship also has a bridge with a trader contact.
• Excelsior-class ships: the T5 and T6 ones come with ten transwarp locations. The T3 only comes with three, but has a console that cuts transwarp cooldown in half (and can be had with nothing but dilithium). If you do not have access to any of the above ships (or only have access to the D'Kora but not the Ferengi Marauder set), this line is probably your best bet for a doffing-focused character.

Other Bonuses

• Assimilated Subtranswarp Engine / Gamma Synergistic Overcharged Core: These two do not stack, alas, but both are very useful for improving the speed of your assignment-gathering expeditions. Extensively-Modified Warp Core can also work instead, if you have access to it.
• Ferengi Marauder Set: Expensive in terms of Lobi, but a 10% bonus to all CXP earned is no laughing matter. Using it on a Ferengi ship also provides access to yet another assignment contact. The set itself can work in a torpboat setup.
• Transwarp Computer: Obtained with the T3 Excelsior but usable by any ship, this console drastically reduces transwarp cooldown time. That is useful for assignment-gathering.
• Astrometrics Scientist: Putting one of these on active duty will allow you to use transwarp more frequently, which is useful for assignment-gathering.
• Well Traveled: This trait, obtainable by doing well in Tour the Galaxy, cuts transwarp cooldown by 20%.
• Obviously, if you are grinding Commendation XP you should buy as many CXP boosts as you can afford.
• You will likely need a sizable stack of Gamma Quadrant commodities to grind certain Medical and Science missions. Other, more common commodities can be found in assignments themselves, replicated, or bought from a variety of specialized vendors.

The Uses of Doffs

Of course, what doffs are and how to get them is in service to for what you actually want to use them. Generally speaking (and not counting a few odd exceptions, such as the assignment in the Wasteland arc), there are four uses for doffs:

1. Commendation XP: Accruing Commendation XP, or CXP, allows for a variety of rewards. All ranks unlock titles, a free doff, the ability to purchase more doffs with dilithium (or EC, in three cases), and in two cases transwarp points and an enemy-faction boff. For Feds, there is also a uniform option unlocked by doffing. At higher CXP ranks, this is also a method for passively farming Fleet Marks.
2. Dilithium farming: While other, more profitable methods of dil farming (such as admiralty) have taken some of the luster out of dil doffing, there are still rewards to be had for building dil-focused doffs. If nothing else, it is a fairly passive source of dil that can also complement your admiralty efforts in the same arena.
3. Active duty: The most common modern use of doffs, putting doffs on active duty can radically improve the efficacy of your build--or may even be required to make your build work at all. Much of the build-focused subject matter is beyond the scope of this guide
4. Fleet projects: A still-important facet of doffing is turning in common doffs for fleet project progress. While there is not much to

Commendation XP (CXP) Grinding

Why Do This?
Recruits, free doffs, transwarp, passive flark grinding, a nifty uniform (FED)
Roster Optimization
Fed-aligned: See this link
KDF-aligned: Investigation in progress
The Easiest Categories

1. Science
2. Colonial
3. Engineering
4. Military
5. Medical
6. Espionage
7. Marauding (KDF-aligned only)
8. Development
9. Diplomacy (FED-aligned only)
10. Exploration
11. Trade
12. Recruitment

Guide to Grinding The Top Six
Particle Traces and other bridge missions, colonial chains, analyzing Gamma commodity properties, Undine BZ, Dyson allied/contested when available, one at K-13, one at the Research Lab, and two at the Dilithium Mine. Tour the Galaxy also gives exploration.
Guide to Grinding Diplomacy (FED Only)
Orias T-junction
Guide to Grinding Marauding (KDF Only)
Follow route, keeping in mind Beta borders

Dilithium (Dil) Farming

Colonial Transportation
Relocate to Borders plus Colonial chains--look for crit traits
Marauding (KDF)
Follow route, keeping in mind Beta borders
Get Contraband
Give to Security Officer

Active Duty Roster Optimization

Why Doffing?
Technicians are incredibly expensive
Where to Find Desirable Doffs

1. Support B'Tran (Technician)
2. Support Khazan (Projectile Weapons Officer)

Fleet Project Resources

Convert all doffs possible to unbound via OXP
Downgrind to white
Turn in to Fleet projects (Coordinate Colonization can take any white, even Refugees or Prisoners)

Conclusion

Conclusion

Sources

• u/allocator's excellent work on mapping doff mission locations in the Alpha/Beta Quadrants
• u/mdcdesign's Marauding assignment route
• \@ShadowDragon, whose Reddit username I do not know, for his kind advice on Colonists in Redditchat that is far more relevant post-Admiralty nerf
• u/redhotkurt's guide to farming on the STO wiki, which includes some information about doffing
• The sto wiki's Advanced Doffing guide, which is now solidly out of date but still contains much relevant information

Consider the following timeline….
Once upon a time, hedge funds and brokerages decided GME was a dog and is the easiest money they’ve ever made and place positions (puts) betting that the price will go down. They placed bets to the tune of 140% of nominal value of all shares outstanding.
Some autists on Reddit identify this massive naked short bet and don’t feel their beloved GME (who they have DEEP SENTIMENTAL FEELINGS for) is quite the dog its being made out to be and so, just for fun, start buying the stock and placing call options, betting that the price will go up. They talk about it on WSB because that's what we do on WSB. Taking contrary positions is what autists do best. They almost WILL their beloved Gamestop to rise. It does. Disbelieving billionaire shorts see this and say WTF? This cant be happening That’s what celebrities said during the Great Fappening too. It still happened.
The ground swell grows until it hits critical mass and people are making REAL money. Wuuuut, you can transfer money to Robinhood and they will instantly approve you for trading in options? How hard can this be? People who have never bought a stock or placed an option order in their life are making a killing. Word spreads. More join the fray. More huge wins. Loooks fun! More and more and more jump in.
Meanwhile in hedgietown, things are looking really fucking dire. WTF are these autists doing??? This CAN’T be happening… heeelp I’m melting. They watch their easy money being plundered by a merry band of retards enabled by no less than… Robinhood. Not only is hedgie sure thing easy money evaporating but they appear to have been somewhere they simply could not have believed possible. On the "wrong side" of a trade that potential carries a net loss so fucking impressively large that it might destroy some of the largest players on Wall Street and create an event that would cause systemic risk in financial markets. Doh. We done fucked up this time. Wuuuuuut?
The ground swell on Reddit turns into a tsunami. It starts to make the news…
A strategy coalesces among the autists. Hey! If we hold and don’t sell wont the price rise? It appears to work.
Hedgies now have lost their appetite and have stopped wanking or fucking and haven’t bathed or shaved in three days. They are drinking that 100 year old scotch they were holding for a special occasion like it was water. Increasingly urgent calls go back and forth among hedge fund managers, bankers and brokerage principals.
On Wednesday January 20th a conference call is arranged between the main players and the CEO of a private firm called Robinhood Holdings.
An offer is made.
Hedgies: Hey V****. Great little company you got there. It would be a shame if it no longer existed say... next Monday, because it bankrupted the companies that do its settlement and it imploded US financial markets. Wouldn’t you agree?
RH: (Silence on the line…)
Hedgies: Here’s a big favor we need from you to prevent that from happening. We need you to halt buying on GME on your platform for a “few hours”. Can you do that favor for us? If you do, we can guarantee you will have our long term support and will ensure that you survive. This will have long term benefits for everyone including you and Robinhood, we assure you.
RH:So you are saying this is a systemic risk event?
Hedgies: Yes, that's what we are saying.
RH: But what will we tell our account holders?
Hedgies: It’s only for a few hours. Just tell them settlement issues or liquidity concerns or something. In exchange for this favor, we are going to give you funding to make sure nothing happens to your company. So it’s a win-win. Would a 250 million dollar forgivable loan be okay?
RH: (A long moment….) Yes, okay.
Hedgies: Done. It’s transferred.
Upon reaching the agreement for the “favor,” hedgies get to work placing enormous bets on GME for the next day (betting the stock will go down on Thursday). They also place huge call option positions for when the halt on buying is released at a pre-determined time on Friday, betting the price will go up. They know after the halt, a violent price swing will trigger their new short positions and when the halt is lifted the price rise will trigger their call options.
RH halts buying in GME for “a few hours”. The hedgies new shorts placed on Wednesday (for Thursday) are exercised to the tune of billions. When “limited” buying resumes on Friday, per plan, the price for GME shares rockets higher, triggering the hedgies call strikes.
Hypothetically speaking, how much could one make if one were a hedgie manipulating saving the market like this? Billions and billions. How much did hedgies need to unwind their positions last Friday, 24 hours before this occurred?? Billions and billions. Hypothetically, that's an amazing coincidence....
Given this hypothetical, would it be enough to unwind more than their Friday positions? How much more? None? Some?
Dunno, WSB I’m just another retard like you. As proof of that I sold GME on Tuesday at 80 and bough BB.
Don’t be retarded like me. HOLD THE DAMN LINE but expect more tricks this week. Goodluck and godspeed.

Note: I'm including trades in this mock, but since it's only one round, I'm not going to get too much into detail about compensation outside of 1st round picks and players. Most trades that happen in reality tend to swap some later round picks as well, often going both ways; go ahead and assume some of that will be happening where it makes sense, but I won't be going through all of the draft value stuff to work out those specific numbers. I'm also not making firm assumptions about free agency, but I'll mention situations that I think are most likely and relevant, so forgive me if I'm a bit inconsistent about where free agents come into play and where they don't.

Important free agency / trade notes:

• Watson traded to the Jets, Darnold to Texans, trade explained in mock.
  
• Garoppolo to the Colts for a day 2 pick and some change.
  
• Minshew to SF for a mid-round pick.
  
• Cousins stays in Minnesota.
  
• Ryan stays in Atlanta.
  
• Winston to the Bears as a free agent.
  
• Trubisky to the Patriots as a free agent.
  

1) JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
This pick doesn't need much explanation. He's the best QB prospect we've seen since Luck, he's been pretty much locked in as #1 overall since his freshman year, and the Jags are taking him.
2) NYJ > HOU - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Trade: Texans trade Deshaun Watson to Jets for #2, #23, a future 1st round pick, and Sam Darnold.
There it is, Watson's going to New York. Watson wants out, the Texans don't want to trade him, but I think Watson will call their bluff and sit out the season if they don't let him go. The Texans are a dumpster fire, but they know they're better off getting assets in return for Watson than letting him quit because they wanted to look tough. The Jets get the new face of their franchise for a pretty fair price -- Miami is the other likely trade partner IMO and I think they're content to stick with Tua and not get stuck in a bidding war, so the price for NYJ might not actually be as high as people may expect (it's important to remember, when comparing this to the Stafford trade, the Rams paid extra to offload Goff's contract).
Now, onto the pick. I actually have Zach Wilson as QB2 on my board, but with Darnold joining, the Texans can take the guy that I think has an edge in terms of athleticism. David Culley is coming from Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, and I could see him leaning towards the running threat in this scenario. Plus, if Jack Easterby is still pulling the strings, Fields being outspoken about his religious faith might be enough of an edge over Wilson (who despite going to BYU, has never really said much about his beliefs). I know that sounds crazy, but the Texans are crazy right now, and I'm just a guy eating popcorn waiting to see what happens.
3) MIA > CAR - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Trade: Dolphins trade #3 to Panthers for #8 and a future 1st.
Another trade breaks, and another QB goes. The Dolphins are in a really interesting spot at #3 overall. They didn't make a blockbuster move for Watson, and they'll build around Tua. Tua wasn't anything amazing as a rookie, but he certainly didn't look bad; expectations for rookie QB's have gotten a bit out of hand lately. Miami have their choice of any non-QB in the draft, and they'll be looking hard at Sewell here, as well as the receivers. But they also aren't desperate for OL help, and there's a ton of WR talent in this draft, so when Carolina offers a 1st round pick for a 5 spot drop, that's a pretty good deal. On Carolina's side, they're more than happy to jump Atlanta and screw their division rivals out of an excellent QB prospect. The Falcons are probably furious with this trade, but they weren't willing to overpay to move up one spot when they do still have Matt Ryan in at least the short term. The Panthers need a QB sooner rather than later, and a 1st rounder next year is a pretty fair price for what may be a franchise QB.
Zach Wilson is my QB2 in this draft. He's got the arm, the smarts, and the ability to move around and extend plays and make things happen. He reminds me a lot of Baker Mayfield, that's something Rhule can be excited about. Joe Brady might not be in Carolina for long, but he'll have fun with a guy like Wilson.
4) ATL - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
The Falcons miss out on the elite QB prospects, and with maybe the best WR corps in the NFL, their decision isn't too difficult here. They could reach a bit for the top CB or EDGE in the draft, but none of those guys are quite the blue-chip prospect that Sewell is. Sewell is probably, at worst, the 3rd or 4th best player in the draft, and could well be the best of them all. The Falcons have a reliable LT in Jake Matthews, but Sewell can come in as an immediate starter at either LG or RT in place of Carpenter or McGary.
5) CIN - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The Bengals are sad to miss out on Sewell, but they can't be too sad when they land Chase. After a year of QB shuffling at LSU, opting out of the 2020 season might actually have been more protective of Chase's draft stock than harmful. Yes, DeVonta Smith stole the spotlight and skyrocketed up draft boards to challenge Chase for the WR1 spot, but Chase has about 30 pounds on Smith and might be a safer bet in terms of durability. It also gives the Bengals the chance to reunite Joe Burrow with his favorite college target.
6) PHI - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
And Smith wasn't far behind. The Eagles are in desperate need of WR help. They took Reagor in the late 1st round last year, but he didn't contribute much after missing some time with injury, and Smith is too good to pass up. They've got to find some way to help Carson Wentz regain some confidence in hopes of being at least a decent starter again, and if they have to turn to Hurts, he's familiar with Smith from his time at Bama.
7) DET - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
I honestly don't like mocking big runs like this. 3 QB's in a row in the top 3, and then 3 WR's in a row after that. It doesn't sound all that realistic, and I'm well aware that probably none of what I predict will come true (aside from Lawrence). But this pick makes too much sense. The Lions shipped out Stafford and got Goff and picks in return, and they're entering what seems to be a full rebuild. I don't think there's any way Kenny Golladay sticks around. Basically all of their WR's are free agents this year. They need to give Goff something to work with if they roll with him, and I don't think they gamble on Trey Lance at this spot. Waddle missed most of this season, but he was being hyped up as the Bama star WR going into 2020 for a reason. He's the last of the real blue-chip elite WR talents in a very strong WR class, and that's hard to pass up.
8) CAR > MIA - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
The Dolphins miss out on an elite WR. That stings. But they do have another 1st round pick and this draft class is pretty stacked. They might not be getting Jaylen Waddle, but there are some other quality 1st round talents that should be available later. At this spot, they give Brian Flores the best LB in the class. Parsons is an interesting prospect. He's a freak athlete, fairly versatile, and despite some character concerns, he could be a leader on this defense for years. He can come in as an immediate replacement for Elandon Roberts and learn from Kyle Van Noy, possibly shifting between ILB and SLB.
9) DEN - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU
While the Lions weren't ready to gamble on Lance at 7, the Broncos pounce on him at 9. Drew Lock isn't the worst QB in the world, but in a division with Mahomes and Herbert (and Carr isn't a slouch, either), the Broncos have to find a talented QB if they want to have any hope of competing. Trey Lance is a pretty unique prospect, coming from an FCS school with only 1 year of starting experience and not playing in 2020 (outside of a hastily thrown-together showcase game that really isn't much to judge). He's an incredible athlete with a ton of upside, and he threw ZERO interceptions in his one season as a starter. Yes, the fact that he played in the FCS at one of the most dominant programs in college football history can't be ignored, but the talent is pretty obvious. This might be Elway's last chance to right the ship at QB, so you have to imagine they'll be all-in on giving Lance all of the support they can.
10) DAL - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The Cowboys could go a few different ways here -- Slater or Darrisaw at OT, Pitts at TE, Paye or Rousseau on the edge, but CB is the most glaring need on this team, and Surtain looks like the complete package. The Cowboys drafted Trevon Diggs out of Bama last year, and he had an up and down season. Awuzie could be on his way out, and they desperately need someone that can take over the CB1 role and take some of the pressure off of Diggs. Surtain looks like he can be an NFL CB1, and he'll link up with an old teammate in Dallas.
11) NYG - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The Giants need help in a lot of areas, but if they're going to stick with Daniel Jones for another year, he needs all the help he can get. It's too early here to reach for a WR, but the Giants need a reliable pass catcher. Sterling Shepard is a decent option, but he's not exactly a game changer. Evan Engram, despite somehow making the pro bowl this year, is not a good TE. He's fast, but he can't catch a cold. Enter Kyle Pitts. Pitts is everything that Engram was supposed to be, except he can catch the ball. He can play TE, he can split out wide, and he can run some gadget plays. Whatever it is, he's probably better at it than most anyone else on the roster.
12) SF - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
First things first, the QB trade. This pick wasn't involved, but I can't really let it go unaddressed. The 49ers part ways with Garoppolo, sending him to Indy for a day 2 pick (either a 2nd rounder, or a 3rd and another pick, whatever). Then they send a mid-round pick (I'd think probably a 4th) to Jacksonville for Minshew. So Gardner Minshew will be the presumed starter for 2021, competing with Mullens for the job.
The top 4 QB's are gone and the 49ers don't want to reach for Mac Jones here. Farley is the top CB on a lot of boards. I don't think he's quite as good as Surtain right now, but he's got a ton of potential to be great. The 49ers already don't have the greatest CB corps, and they could be losing Sherman and Verrett to free agency, without much left behind to take over.
13) LAC - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
This one's pretty simple. Chargers have found their franchise QB in Herbert, now they need to protect him. Their OL is... not great. Slater is a very solid OL prospect. He was an amazing LT at Northwestern (watch him vs Chase Young when they played Ohio State), and any teams with concerns about his measurables for a tackle can slot him in at LG and expect a quality starter.
14) MIN - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
The Vikings probably would have preferred Slater here, but Darrisaw is still a solid OL prospect. I considered going with Vera-Tucker as more of a true OG, but the value just isn't there in my eyes. There's some solid IOL talent available later, and a good tackle is hard to come by.
15) NE > LV - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
Trade: Raiders trade #17 and later picks to Patriots for #15.*
Shocker, the Patriots trade down. After signing Mitchell Trubisky back to be the presumed starting QB, they trade down from #15 to gain some draft caiptal. The Raiders make a small jump to get ahead of the Cardinals and take the top EDGE on their board. Rousseau may be raw, but he's a hell of an athlete, and the upside is too much for Mayock and Gruden to pass up. It's like the Saints' Davenport trade a few years back, just way less expensive.
16) ARI - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Cardinals make a pretty simple pick here. They need real CB help, and Horn is the top CB on the board. I love Jaycee Horn as a prospect. I actually have him as the 1b to Surtain's 1a on my board. He's an absolute ballhawk, and while he's a little handsy in coverage, that can be coached.
17) LV > NE - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
I know the Pats don't do well with 1st round WR's, but they don't have many better options. The lack of offensive weapons clearly played at least some part in Brady's departure. If the Patriots want to be contenders again, they need to be able to score points, and Garoppolo needs receivers that are better than N'Keal Harry and the corpse of Julian Edelman. Marshall is a tall WR that can play on the outside, in the slot, and move around to create mismatches. He should provide a reliable target for Jimmy and the new-look Pats.
18) MIA - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
The Dolphins passed on elite WR's in the top 5, but they'll take the top WR available here to give Tua some help. Bateman isn't a burner, but he's god decent size and he's a great route-runner, so he should be able to create some separation and give Tua go-to option.
19) WAS - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
The 5th QB goes. I know Mac Jones is a bit of a controversial prospect. He had all the talent in the world at Bama, and he doesn't exactly stand out as a huge talent compared to guys like Fields and Wilson. But he's proven to be a poised, accurate passer with a good head on his shoulders. I don't see him getting past Washington. I think Jones can be successful NFL QB in the right situation. Is WFT the right situation? I'm not sure. But I think Rivera will like what he sees, and Alex Smith could be the perfect mentor for him.
20) CHI - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Bears bring in Winston as a free agent in hopes of solving their eternal QB problem. If nothing else, he's got the arm to sling it downfield in the windy city. He was the best option available (really the only free agent worth going after as a possible starter), and they'll keep Foles for another year to compete with him. The least they could do is beef up the OL. Eichenberg is a pro-ready LT that the Bears can slot in from day 1.
21) IND - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
With Garoppolo coming in at QB, the Colts can turn their attention elsewhere. With needs at OL and WR, it's not the easiest decision, but Paye falling right into their laps is too much to pass up. Paye is the #1 EDGE on a lot of boards, so a fall to 21 is probably not likely. The Colts don't mind. They get to snatch him away from the Titans, too.
22) TEN - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
Nixon burst onto the scene this year at Iowa as a pass-rushing 3T. Tennessee needs help all over the DL, and Nixon is a nice piece to start with. He might need some time get up to NFL speed, but he showed massive production and the Titans will hope for more.
23) NYJ > HOU - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
The Texans got their QB in Fields, now they need to support him. Fuller is likely gone, Cooks is likely gone this year or next, and that would leave Keke Coutee as the next best WR on the roster. Moore does not have the size of a WR1. He'll work mostly out of the slot and on gadget plays. But he's electric. He could bring life to an offense that will be rebuilding from the ground up. Anything to try to win back some fans.
24) PIT - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
With Villanueva likely leaving in free agency, the Steelers take the top OT on the board as an immediate replacement. Cosmi might end up slotting in at RT, as the Steelers might like Okorafor more on the left.
25) JAX - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
The Jags will take a hard look at going OL here to protect Trevor Lawrence, but they can't afford not to make a move in the secondary. Stokes can be a playmaker at CB.
26) CLE - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Collins seems to go to the Browns in pretty much every mock, but it makes too much sense for me to go another direction. He can do it all. He's a great run stopper, he excels rushing the passer, and he's not totally helpless in coverage, either. He'll be a nice defensive piece in a pretty talented Browns team.
27) BAL - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, USC
The Ravens look hard at EDGE here, but Vera-Tucker is one of the top talents available, and they need help on the OL. He'll slot into the RG spot, and hopefully be playing next to Orlando Brown, though I think Brown could be on his way out soon.
28) NO - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
The Saints are going to look very different next year. Brees is all but officially retired, and we'll likely see a lot of roster turnover in order to get under the cap. The most obvious move that will be made is the release of OLB Kwon Alexander. Luckily, Owusu-Koramoah has just the skillset to come in and take on that coverage LB role.
29) GB - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
The Packers have a big need at CB, but the value just doesn't line up there for me. They could also use a good coverage-savvy LB, and Nick Bolton fits that bill.
30) BUF - Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State
Not a flashy pick, but the Bills live and die with Josh Allen. An upgrade at guard should help Allen live.
31) TB - Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas
The Bucs really don't have too many glaring needs, so this pick comes down to BPA on their shortlist. For me, this comes down to Ossai and Jalen Mayfield. When in doubt, take the pass rusher. Ossai should fit nicely as a 3-4 OLB in Tampa. Both Barrett and Pierre-Paul are free agents this year, and they won't keep both.
32) KC - Jaylen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
KC is a simple pick. You got Mahomes? Protect Mahomes. Mayfield can play tackle, or move into guard if needed. He's the best OL on the board, and the last pick of round one.

So, tell me why I'm wrong, why I'm right for the wrong reasons, and why I'm an idiot in general.