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A Guide to The Weeknd's Discography

Since The Weeknd is performing at the Super Bowl Halftime show, I thought it’d be nice to post a little guide to his discography for anyone interested in looking to do a deep dive into his work. I would’ve posted this the day of the event, but I assume that some people would probably like to go through it over the weekend.
This shares a direct overview of his released material, talking about his career and the background of the music, the videos, the meanings and all. I’ve written this from a pop perspective, keeping in mind that his history might be fairly new for general pop fans.
I also go into the storyline of the red suit character, if your interested in catching up on that narrative before the Halftime show (which will continue the story), I’ve listed the chronological order below followed by an explanation of that narrative.
I wanna be clear that the interpretations/theories are not conclusive. Abel rarely shares the metaphors or meanings behind his music. This is based on widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation. Fans can feel free to expand on anything in the comments.
It is important to know about Abel's backstory to get a certain perspective of where he’s coming from, especially when discussing the songs that deal with substance abuse. These recent articles cover his early years really well and share an up-to-date point of view of his success.
Variety 2020
Billboard 2021 - Also a good source for getting to know his team.
So, an essential TL;DR is this: Abel Tesfaye came from a broken home, he was born to Ethiopian immigrant parents who split up when Tesfaye was less than seven. He then lived with his mother and grandmother, only rarely seeing his father but having a nice impression of him. His drug addiction started as soon as he was a high schooler, he turned to shoplifting to pay for this need of various substances. Soon he dropped out of high school, leaving his home the same weekend, which would later inspire his stage name, The Weeknd. The name is reference/homage to the weekend his life changed.
Quick side note, I didn’t think this post would nearly reach the character limit. So I’ve cut out excess detail and lists of producers (with the exception of After Hours since we’re in that era).
Table of contents
  1. XO.
  2. House of Balloons.
  3. Thursday.
  4. Echoes of Silence.
  5. Trilogy.
  6. Kiss Land.
  7. King of the Fall.
  8. Beauty Behind The Madness.
  9. Starboy.
  10. My Dear Melancholy.
  11. After Hours.

XO.

XO is the record label that The Weeknd and co. created in order to publish the first mixtape (House of Balloons) and the ones that would follow afterwards. XO has a lot of meanings that have to do with what went into the music and what still goes into it. XO is what the fans call themselves, popularly with the phrase XO Till We OD (shortened to XOTWOD); another way of saying “we’re ride or die for The Weeknd and his team.”
While some argue that it could mean anything since there isn’t clear meaning to it, fans continue to associate the abbreviation with ecstasy (X) and oxycontin (O). That definition stems from XOTWOD, fans assume it’s true because of the team’s history of drug usage. While others take it as it’s classical definition “hugs and kisses” because of the consistent lyrical nature of The Weeknd’s songs.
Overtime the definition of XO is simply known as: the fans, the crew, and the label. The Weeknd is more than just one person, he comes with XO. For the sake of clarity in this writeup, I’m going to refer to his crew as XO and the fans as “the fans.”
XO still serves as a record label, the current roster is The Weeknd, Belly, Nav, and Black Atlass. It remains The Weeknd’s record label and was his first label before becoming a subsidiary of Republic Records.
Throughout his career, The Weeknd has worked with Illangelo, a Canadian producer who’s work the fans adore. Carlo “Illangelo” Montagnese was one of main the producers on The Weeknd’s Trilogy, he’s credited on each track. The fan base claims his work to be some of the most notable artistry in The Weeknd’s discography. Their work together continued with Beauty Behind The Madness, Illangelo worked on seven tracks for that album. He then returned for After Hours working on another seven tracks.
DaHeala, another Canadian producer, is another significant factor in The Weeknd’s music. Jason “DaHeala” Quenneville worked as lead producer on Kiss Land. He returned to work on six tracks for The Weeknd’s Beauty Behind The Madness, including the hit Earned It. DaHeala returned as a writer for six of the songs on Starboy. Then DaHeala worked on nine After Hours tracks, and worked as the only producewriter alongside The Weeknd for bonus tracks Missed You and Final Lullaby.

House of Balloons.

Didn't wanna make this NSFW, so here's the super clean edited cover
This is a happy house. We’re happy here. (House of Balloons/Glass Table Girls)
One of the most iconic title tracks of all time. House of Balloons is about a lifestyle of drugs, sex, and partying; all in effort to drown out self-doubt. It comes from a place of wanting to make it big while doing what you can to survive, all while pretending everything’s alright. The mixtape describes various sorts of women, how they’ve had impacted the life of someone who’s already down on his luck.
Fans often refer to House of Balloons as The Weeknd’s best work. The mixtape was the first introduction the world got of XO, and it was one hell of a way to make an impression. It’s personal for the fans and Abel because it’s the only piece of work known to be based on his life. At the end of the day he’s a songwriter, with many of his albums he creates scenarios and world that he likes to explore through the music. But House of Balloons is known to be based entirely on his life. It remains The Weeknd’s most critically acclaimed work.
House of Balloons was crafted through the influences of Hip-Hip/Indie-Rock with the main focus on R&B. Through the genius of Ilangelo, the record was—and is—mesmerizing capturing the essence of a lifestyle that The Weeknd described as “anti-everything.”
House of Balloons assisted The Weeknd in gaining the attention of Republic Records, which would then host The Weeknd’s own label XO. Though hesitant at first, XO decided to partner with Republic after the co-founding brothers Monte and Avery Lipman kept coming back to Toronto solely for The Weeknd.
House of Balloons received three videos, The Knowing, Wicked Games and Twenty Eight. The Knowing was the very first video The Weeknd made, so of course it’d be something other-worldly; it essentially reflects the song itself but in a sci-fi setting. Twenty Eight represents Abel’s life after fame but also his remorse of letting captivating women into his life.
Fun fact— House of Balloons is an actual place in Toronto, it was where him and his crew lived after he dropped out of high school. They’d host parties, call girls, do drugs, and to make it less depressing they’d fill it with balloons.

Thursday.

Valerie on the cover
Welcome to the other side. (Life of the Party)
Thursday consists of the same themes as HoB; sex and drugs. But there’s a twist, he’s in a semi-relationship with this girl Valerie. She’s the only one on his mind, even though they meet only one day of the week, any guesses on what day that could be? Through The Weeknd’s phenomenal voice and the insane production, we’re also presented with this story of a toxic relationship where Valerie used to have the upper hand but she no longer does when she falls for The Weeknd.
While Thursday isn’t entirely about the relationship of The Weeknd and Valerie, it consists of reflections to Abel’s life after the release of House of Balloons. The song Rolling Stone notably has a double meaning, in which Abel asks his fans if they’ll stick with him when he gets mainstream appeal and decides to change his sound.
The track Valerie wasn’t on the original release of Thursday, it added when Trilogy was released. Ending the mixtape with Heaven or Las Vegas meant that The Weeknd’s actions with and without Valerie were a result of his fatherless childhood, making him push anyone away. That meaning behind Thursday doesn’t change when Valerie is added to the track list, it just means that both want the toxic relationship back.
The Zone (feat. Drake) was the first feature The Weeknd had on any of his work, the video for it was released in November of 2012. Rolling Stone had also received a video in October of 2012. Both were directed by The Weeknd and reflect the two different aspects of Thursday. The Zone has Valerie living it up in the House of Balloons. And Rolling Stone has The Weeknd doing a photoshoot for Trilogy, reflective of the song itself.
Fun Fact— the female voice heard in Lonely Star is The Weeknd’s, he pitched his voice to make it sound like a woman’s.

Echoes of Silence.

Diana on the cover
Laisse tomber les filles. Un jour c'est toi qu'on laissera. [Leave the girls alone. One day it’ll be you they will leave.] (Montreal)
Out of a dark introductory into the early life of The Weeknd, Echoes of Silence is the darkest work of his Trilogy. Let’s be honest the story here isn’t entirely ethical at times but makes for one hell of a mixtape.
Similar to Thursday, Echoes of Silence follows a storyline. After accumulating success, The Weeknd gains the attention of various women. There was this one woman (D.D.) who he liked but she initially rejected him (Montreal). The woman came back to him for his fame status and evidently fell in love with him (Outside), but now that he’s got the upper hand he treats him like a groupie (XO/The Host) and lets... bad things happen to her; she’s gotta pass a test before she can get with him. This test is either drugs or his crew (Initiation). He ultimately tells this woman that he’s not exactly longterm-relationship material, perhaps because her love is temporary (Same Old Song), because he’s Next. With the end of Echoes of Silence (originally ending on the title track) the listener is left to wonder why The Weeknd left her if he’d simply want her to stay.
As a side note— Initiation should not be condoned. It remains true that The Weeknd is a songwriter and the progression of time has changed perspectives. But a song that makes such suggestions as Initiation should not be ethically/morally claimed or celebrated.
The mixtape follows The Weeknd’s lifestyle after he’s gained all this success, he’s still the same person but now he’s gotten everything he wanted. Some tracks such as The Fall continue to emphasize his journey into stardom and his acceptance of fame being temporary. With the added Till Dawn (Here Comes The Sun), The Weeknd acknowledges the changes in his life, realizing that the old lifestyle is no longer there for him or his past lovers.
Echoes of Silence is known as an underrated gem of The Weeknd’s discography, it’s well received by fans and critically acclaimed but often brushed under the rug in discussion of his work. A lot of fans and casual listeners play the mixtapes through Trilogy rather than their respective albums. This often leads to people not playing EoS either at all or only the first few tracks, this is predominantly due to the nature of the compilation being nearly three hours long.
Fun fact— D.D. is a cover of Michael Jackson’s iconic Dirty Diana. Fans have named the woman in Echoes of Silence Diana because of this track. Various theories argue that the mixtape itself is based on the Dirty Diana itself with exaggerations of the truth, or whether or not it’s a story The Weeknd crafted based on the song.

Trilogy.

Rolling Stone video doubled as a shoot
You don’t know what’s in store. (High For This.)
Trilogy is a compilation of The Weeknd’s mixtapes, House of Balloons, Thursday, and Echoes of Silence. These three mixtapes were released 3-4 months apart from one another for free digital download in 2011, they gained quite a lot of attention from various industry executives.
Prior to the release of Trilogy, The Weeknd featured on Drake’s Take Care with Crew Love. The song was Abel’s first exposure to a Rap crowd/Rap fans, more people began listening to his music after the release of Take Care. The Weeknd then featured on Wiz Khalifa’s Remember You, which served as the second single off Wiz Khalifa’s O.N.I.F.C. Following those two releases, The Weeknd released Wicked Games as the first single off Trilogy.
Trilogy was formed after The Weeknd came under Republic Records’ management. The compilation album reached a debut/peak position of 4 on the Billboard 200 while reaching number one on the US Top R&B/Hip-Hop Albums chart. It’s a well received album with the highlight said to be House of Balloons, which arguably went on to influence various sorts of R&B music of the 2010s.
Videos for Trilogy

Kiss Land.

Iconic
I went from starin' at the same four walls for 21 years. To seein' the whole world in just 12 months. (Kiss Land)
Kiss Land is based on The Weeknd’s tour life. Visiting unfamiliar places gave Abel horror movie vibes. A guy who used to own the city (Toronto) he lived in is now a small fish in the ocean of the entire world. The Weeknd’s first studio album was a great introduction into the sound he would soon get well acquainted with.
While continuing the R&B sound with the essence of Dark Wave, the album explores emptiness and regret throughout the lyrics—or what pop fans could categorize as dark pop—. The Japanese aesthetic used for various videos and the single covers/booklet reflects the themes of feeling overwhelmed by such a loud world that there’s no point in being if you don’t belong.
The album explores the real-world and the women in it as well as regrets regarding past actions, namely letting go of women who could’ve been the one in Adaptation. The Weeknd attempts to find that satisfaction in other women and past lovers, but accidentally falls for a sex worker in Belong To The World. With Wanderlust he accepts and expresses that love in the modern world isn’t entirely possible. While continuing to tour the world he enjoys these new experiences with XO (Live For feat. Drake), as well as the new women in his life (Kiss Land). And when he’s back home, he accepts the loss of the relationship he cherished.
Kiss Land debuted and peaked at number two on the Billboard 200. It was fairly acclaimed but gained a massive cult following. There were four videos for made for the album, the title track, Belong To the World, Live For (feat. Drake), and Pretty. Those four songs received interesting visuals that kept up with their respective themes while Belong To the World/Kiss Land got visuals that matched the aesthetic of the album. To this day fans ask Abel for a part two to the horror-movie-inspired album after he said it’s the only album he would have a sequel for.
Videos for Kiss Land
Fun Fact— The video for Kiss Land on YouTube is an extremely edited version of the actual video shot for the song. The directors cut further explores the erotic-horror themes if the album.

King of the Fall.

King of the Fall 2020 cover (even though I talk about three other songs here)
Driving by the streets we used to walk through like a triumph. (King of the Fall)
These next few song were released between the Kiss Land and Beauty Behind the Madness era. Some fans would classify them as part of the Beauty Behind the Madness era—I’d say the same tbh—but they stand apart on the basis of success and acclaim. It’s a transition between The Weeknd being an underrated R&B musician to being a mainstream artist with massive recognition and appreciation.
The first of these four songs is King of the Fall. A fan favourite and a standout in The Weeknd’s discography. This is one of The Weeknd’s few Rap tracks, it gained a lot of attention within the Rap sphere. It was the way in which XO would announce that they’ve made it, little did they know that this was just the start.
Prior to the release of Beauty Behind the Madness (BBTM), The Weeknd gained mainstream attention. The Weeknd’s exposure to mainstream music was uphill, it wasn’t overnight. The first taste of BBTM came from Often, a song that reflected the themes of sex that Abel was known for. The track was released more than a year before BBTM’s release and had made it onto the trackless unlike King of the Fall. Slowly but surely The Weeknd gained exposure, his main sources of exposure were through a collaboration and a soundtrack.
Most pop fans heard about The Weeknd through his hit collaboration with Ariana Grande, Love Me Harder. The collab was made through Republic when The Weeknd said he wanted more than what he had gotten through Kiss Land. Ariana and Abel had formed a real bond cough The Hills cough, their bond assisted the song in becoming a memorable hit for both artists. Love Me Harder was a top ten hit on the Billboard Hot 100.
Later that year, The Weeknd was featured on the Fifty Shades of Grey soundtrack with Earned It, as well as Where You Belong. Earned It became a massive hit peaking at 3 on the Billboard Hot 100 and receiving an Oscar nomination for The Weeknd; a massive milestone for XO. Earned It kept up with Abel’s signature lyrics but the production differed heavily from the sort of R&B he was known for.
Videos from that era

Beauty Behind the Madness.

I can hear this image
I'm that ***** with the hair singin' 'bout poppin' pills, fuckin' bitches, livin' life so trill. (Tell Your Friends)
Following the success of Love Me Harder and Earned It, the Beauty Behind the Madness era began with The Hills. This was The Weeknd’s first number one on the Billboard Hot 100. Along with the video, The Hills became an addictive classic. The production and lyrics mirror a mature version of the sound that was originally found on Trilogy. It was truly in keeping with The Weeknd’s character, the only difference was his haircut.
Next came Can’t Feel My Face, a Max Martin production that differed greatly from anything The Weeknd put out in the past. In past songs, Abel had expressed his fear of losing his following if he went mainstream simultaneously asking his fans if they’d stay. He repeats that sentiment in the Can’t Feel My Face video. The sound has changed, the lyrics stay the same but now he’s a pop-star. The song became a hit as it reached number one on the Billboard Hot 100. With this massive bop previous fans still stayed, The Weeknd becoming a pop singer didn’t at all alter his image or sound; he mastered it.
In The Night and Acquainted were released as singles on the same day, the were the only singles to come after the release of Beauty Behind The Madness. The former received a music video treatment that followed the theme of the song itself while also starring Abel’s girlfriend at the time, Bella Hadid. Acquainted was robbed of a video even though Abel had shown off the fact that a video was in development; the song kept in the tone of The Weeknd’s work prior to BBTM.
Beauty Behind the Madness captures a Hollywood-based reality that The Weeknd came to understand: the dark aspects of your life will continue to follow you wherever you are. Real Life, Losers (feat. Labrinth), Tell Your Friends, Dark Times (feat. Ed Sheeran), and Prisoner (feat. Lana Del Rey) all capture a nihilistic view of a dream achieved.
Most of the videos of Beauty Behind The Madness have a mysterious white man. He’s featured in The Hills, Can’t Feel My Face, and Tell Your Friends. That man represents the devil. Throughout his journey in those videos, (The Hills) Abel runs into the devil after his car crash, (Can’t Feel My Face) he’s at the club then lights him on fire. The significance behind the fire could be selling his soul to the devil, BBTM is about Hollywood and a popular Hollywood myth is that celebrities sell their souls to the devil in exchange for fame. So in the Can’t Feel My Face video, Abel changes his sound to Pop (from R&B) thus leaving his signature sound in order to become famous, everyone starts enjoying his music once he’s sold his soul.
Then we see The Weeknd burying himself in Tell Your Friends, perhaps leaving the old Abel behind after the deal with the devil. However, instead of thanking the devil, Abel takes his revenge and shoots him. But wait, there’s more! The album trailer for BBTM features the devil burning a billboard with The Weeknd’s face on it, revealing Beauty Behind The Madness. HOWEVER, the final cut for the video features the devil being arrested while The Weeknd watches. This is a more realistic form of karma that the devil gets.
Videos for BBTM

Starboy.

Filled with bops
If I could, I'd trade it all, trade it for a halo. And she said that she'll pray for me, I said, "It's too late for me.” (Ordinary Life)
After the massive success of Beauty Behind the Madness, there was a lot of hype around what The Weeknd would do next; evidently he decided to explore Pop. The fandom he had gained wasn’t entirely based in the Pop sphere, his fans consisted of general Rap fans, but Starboy attracted the Pop audience.
Initially, most of his older fans couldn’t get behind Starboy, it differed greatly from the previous sound. It was crazy to think that the guy who made Trilogy managed to make such a Pop-centric album. But this was Abel expressing his versatility.
Since this is where most pop fans found out about Abel’s work and became fans I won’t talk too much about the singles, rather more about the album itself. His work with Daft Punk cemented this album in an efficient mix between Pop and R&B, where Beauty Behind the Madness was more R&B with Pop, Starboy was considered Pop with R&B.
Beyond the genres, Starboy explores two evident themes. One being his life with fame and recognition. The next being his love life in Hollywood, this aspect of the album came from his relationship with Bella Hadid which ended after the release of the album.
The cross became the symbol for that era and appeared in the album’s photoshoot as well as the videos. There was never any conclusive word on the use of the cross but there are various theories about it, something to note is that Abel was raised Christian, it could perhaps be a reflection of his past.
The cross he uses to destroy his accolades (Starboy video) is assisting him rather than something that’s holding him back. Abel’s upbringing was rough but now he’s celebrating it rather than feeling bad for himself. The cross continues to come up in the Party Monster video, this time it’s in the party house he’s making his way through. Then it shows up in the video for Reminder, this time in the form of his merch, the people wearing it are perhaps representative of his fans. Then we see it in the False Alarm video, both Abel and the girl are wearing it; the notable thing being that Abel holds his cross up before dying. Then in the brilliant video for Secrets, after giving up on the girl he’s with he leaves the building to find a giant cross. And finally in the I Feel It Coming video, The Weeknd sports a shiny cross necklace, and Daft Punk find it years and years after Abel froze.
The videos tell us that the cross is an evident piece of his story. This could mean that his past will always be with him, no matter what sort of fame he’s experiencing he’ll always be who he once was.
Also, I’m gonna take this moment to once again the genius that is the Secrets (both the song and the video). Yes it’s my favourite song/video off of Starboy but it’s so underrated.
Videos for Starboy, Secrets video bottom right
Fun Fact— Most demos of the tracks on Starboy weren’t as pop as they became, they started off R&B but became pop after production.

My Dear Melancholy.

Note the comma
They said our love is just a game, I don't care what they say. But I'ma drink the pain away, I'll be back to my old ways. (Privilege)
Oof (but in a good way, this whole thing is a bop). For this one I’m gonna talk extensively about The Weeknd’s relationships, which personally feels really invasive but it’s but it’s essential when talking about these sad boy anthems. Beyond that I’d just like to state that though they are part of the narrative both Bella Hadid and Selena Gomez deserve respect/privacy.
So when it comes to Pop music fans I think it’s safe to say that we all know a lot about this one. My Dear Melancholy (MDM) came after the very public relationship of The Weeknd and Selena Gomez. However it’s not just about Selena, some songs reflect his relationship with Bella Hadid (whom he got back with a month after MDM’s release).
My Dear Melancholy consists with The Weeknd’s exploration/mastery of merging Pop and R&B together. The EP was praised by fans for its lyrics and production, many went on to theorize that it was his most personal project since House of Balloons. The EP was the shortest album to reach number one on the Billboard 200.
My Dear Melancholy and fan conspiracies; name a better duo. The first theory being that the EP is entirely about Selena Gomez which wasn’t too much of a mystery since the lyric “I almost cut a piece of myself for your life” exists. Not only did MDM come after Abel’s relationship with Selena Gomez but also after his relationship with Bella Hadid. As far as fans were aware those two relationships were the most important relationships Abel had ever been in.
In theory, the songs about Bella and Selena can be categorized. Call Out My Name, Try Me, and Privilege are likely about Selena. Wasted Times, and Hurt You are likely about Bella. Leaving I Was Never There to act as an introspective look into The Weeknd’s life, basically making him hop back on his vices for comfort.
Another popular theory was that My Dear Melancholy was the first of another trilogy. This rumour was widely believed due to the comma at the end of the title on the album cover. But the fans soon gained a real reason to believe this theory, since the CEO of XO (the record label), Sal had liked an Instagram post that featured the cover and alleged date. Since Trilogy is a fan favourite this conspiracy spread like wild fire, so much so that fake titles and covers were made. The name of this trilogy would be: (1)My Dear Melancholy, (2)We’re Alone Together, (3)Abel.
Only one song served as a single for the EP. Call Out My Name was released nearly two months prior to the actual release of the album, it debuted/peaked at number four on the Billboard Hot 100. The mysterious video captures The Weeknd in various atmospheric places that reflect the tone of the EP, a haunting yet unexplained reality that the listener is to reflect on.
From the cover, to the music, to the video, to lyrics, My Dear Melancholy is an introspective reflection of heartbreak.
Call out my name video

After Hours.

Talented, Brilliant, Incredible, etc.
My darkest hours. (After Hours)
After Hours comes after success but references two lows in The Weeknd’s life. The album welcomes darkness and leads the listener towards a dead-end. The Weeknd’s past two albums (Beauty Behind The Madness and Starboy) ended on hopeful notes, they left the listener with a sense of hope but all hope his lost with After Hours.
Fans compare After Hours to House of Balloons—a rare occurrence considering House of Balloons’ acclaim—arguing that both albums are on the same level. Debate continues on whether or not both albums are on the same caliber. The belief that After Hours stems from reality does a lot to help its side of the argument.
The era began with Mercedes-Benz commercial that featured Blinding Lights, that was our first taste of the everlasting bop. Heartless was premiered on an episode of Memento Mori hours before its release on the 27 of November (2019), Blinding Lights was released two days later. Both videos were as brain melting as promised and the served as the tip of the iceberg.
After Hours was released nine days after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, there was a massive risk in releasing an album that would not have a lot of promotion after it’s release (other than magazine coverage). There was no telling whether or not people would pay attention to the album during the height of the fear surrounding the pandemic, but it was a massive success. After Hours debuted at number one on the Billboard 200, with singles Heartless and Blinding Lights topping the Billboard Hot 100.
The album is layered with haunting productions that remains predominantly R&B but dives deep into Pop with some of the tracks. Max Martin produced the massive hit Blinding Lights as well as In Your Eyes, Save Your Tears, Hardest to Love, and Scared to Live which samples Elton John’s Your Song. Other notable producers include Metro Boomin who worked on the hit Heartless as well as Escape from LA, Faith, and Until I Bleed Out. With Kevin Parker on the interlude Repeat After Me.
Beyond the production are the narrative driven lyrics. In theory the album references two significant events in Abel’s life, his second breakup with Bella Hadid and his arrest in Las Vegas. The latter was due to his misbehaviour; in January 2015 he punched a cop in Vegas, lmao. Which means that After Hours is a recollection of The Weeknd’s first few years in LA. He merges the concept of his breakup with the idea of being an upcoming star, feeling free in the city of lights all while diving deep into the meaninglessness of those lights.
While After Hours starts with loneliness and a second chance it leads up to Abel returning to his vices of lust. In Alone Again his loneliness caught up to him and he’s asking for a second chance. He acknowledges his mistakes and situation in Too Late/Hardest to Love, in Scared to Live his ex then returns to him for a second time. He remembers his past ways in Snowchild and the way in which it lead to better days, but where do you go after such highs? In Escape From LA he faces the superficial reality of Hollywood, glad that he got that he got back with his ex, while continuing to question if it’s worth it. But he fucks up the second chance when she pulls up to the studio.
Who is she? Much like the other mysteries surrounding The Weeknd’s music, we may never know. Is it all more of The Weeknd’s songwriting ability or is it driven by reality? Fans found a merge between the two to be more accurate, After Hours is about heartbreak and a return to the vices that held The Weeknd back.
Heartless is when The Weeknd is once again back to his ways, he may have been in a serious relationship but after throwing that away he spirals back to the way he once was. It’s sad but it’s one hell of a song. Speaking of brilliant songs, Faith is when Abel admits that he’s back on his vices, he states that he needs his ex back with him till the end; he’s back to self-loathing.
So when he says he’s blinded by the lights, there’s two meanings to it. The Faith outro tells us that he’s in a car with flashing lights, a cop car (as confirmed by Abel) to be exact. Then Blinding Lights tells us that while he’s watching the bright lights of Vegas pass him by he calls out for the girl that he regrets losing. That is the peak of the After Hours narrative. He’s behaving badly over the loss of the girl he loved and is now at the worst position trying to find her and gain her trust for a third time.
Following Blinding Lights is In Your Eyes, this is where The Weeknd vows not to judge her; he can see right through her but will never do anything to make her upset. Does this mean their back together? Not exactly. Save Your Tears details a sort of moving-on that The Weeknd isn’t ready for but tries to help her move on, blind to his own inability to move on. Does it work? Not really. Repeat After Me (Interlude) shows that he’s still trying to convince himself that he’s unfazed by the loss of a meaningful relationship.
Then you hear a true masterpiece. The title track is a spiral into true regret and an apology for his actions, he admits that his ex girlfriend is the only reason he lives. In a dark lonely city she’s the only one keeping him sane. But his pleas fail, Until I Bleed Out is when The Weeknd no longer wants her in his life so much so that he wants to erase his memory of anything related to her. The bonus tracks then echo the final sentiment.
It’s one sad ass album, ain’t it. But here’s where the Red Suit Character comes in.
Shoutout to the makeup department
The album isn’t the only narrative to follow with After Hours. The videos for the album follow their own sort of narrative. The story follows an unnamed guy that goes by “red suit character” according to The Weeknd.
There’s a lot of confusion and endless theories surrounding this character’s story, after The Weeknd confirmed that it’s about a decent into Hollywood culture it makes more sense… kind of. I’m gonna discuss the storyline without talking about the movies that have influenced it, this way the focus remains on the character.
The order of these videos is Heartless / Blinding Lights / Blinding Lights (Live on Kimmel)* / After Hours short film / In Your Eyes / Until I Bleed Out / Snowchild / Too Late / Live at AMAs* / Save Your Tears
*Though all live performances could count as part of the narrative, these one relate directly with the videos that follow.
He’s is first seen in Vegas with Metro Boomin (Heartless), intoxicated on various substances. He dives deeper into his high until he licks a frog, after that he faces the true effects of this high. He’s frightened by the result and runs far away from Vegas. (Blinding Lights) He’s then found in LA, where he’s dancing in the street, hypnotized by the singer, beat up by guards, and races past all those bright lights in his Benz. Ultimately realizing the shallowness of the Los Angeles fantasy.
(Blinding Lights Live on Kimmel) We then find him performing Blinding Lights live, while he attempts to find more reason in within the madness city; he couldn’t find it on the streets so he goes to the stage. (After Hours short film) Even then there’s no meaning to anything in the city, he mindlessly wanders into the depth of the subway where he’s dragged by the reality of it all and ends up possessed. (In Your Eyes) After being possessed he chases the woman whose boyfriend he just murdered, she runs into a club falls deeper into the After Hours fantasy, in a successful attempt to defend herself she beheads the red suit character and dances all over LA with his head, iconic behaviour.
(Until I Bleed Out) Then in an ethereal dreamscape, red suit character finds himself in a House of Balloons. He’s trying to escape, but the people there keep pulling him in; he’s getting higher while observing Glass Table Girls. He spirals into the antarctic, the other side of the world. From Heatless to this point in his story, his vices lead him back to the lowest point in Abel’s life. Is it Hell, Heaven or Las Vegas? (Snowchild) He relives his career up until the point where his story began. Considering he’s dead, his life basically flashed before his eyes.
(Too Late) LA girls find the red suit character’s head and live their best life. They wanna have sex with him so they find the best boy parts by calling up a stripper who could be the body. The stitch the head up with the body and do what they want. But now he’s brought back to life. (Live at AMAs) He’s had work done… He went in to get his nose fixed and the doctor said “you sure that’s all you want?” The red suit character’s face is healing while he tries to celebrate his life on top of a bridge.
(Save Your Tears) Surrounded by a masked cult he debut’s his new face. Do they like it? Are they impressed? Not instantly, their masks translate no expression so how’s he to know? Is any of this worth it? Nope red suit character continues to die inside. He finds a maskless girl in the crowd, she’s lively unlike the rest; but even then, nothing on the inside nothing on the outside. He wants death again, somehow a second chance with this city is still pointless. He tries to kill himself via the girl and himself but it’s all a facade; theatrics.
His story continues but that’s all we know so far.
The videos make a lot of film references. This post by explain these references very well, as well as past album references here (part one) and here (part two).
After Hours is inspired by a lot of movies, since Abel is in fact a cinephile. The main movies that inspired the aesthetic and storytelling are believed to be Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (1998), Casino (1995), Joker (2019), Uncut Gems (2020), and After Hours (1985). The album tells two sad narratives but remains one of The Weeknd’s best works yet. He’s expanded his videography and enhanced the interest of people who casually enjoy his music and of course his fans.
But the era isn’t over, by the time this is posted his Super Bowl Halftime show is yet to happen. And it’ll continue the red suit character’s story.
Videos for After Hours (so far)
Fun Fact—The Heartless video features a reference to Thursday. When he’s trying to run from Vegas, a sign behind him flashes “Heartless / Heaven or Las Vegas.” This could be a reference to Abel running from his past, after all Heartless is about him returning to his vices.

END.

Thank you for reading this, again, I didn’t realize it would end up being this long. But I hope this this served as a nice refresher for any fans who wanted to revisit Abel’s work before the Super Bowl.
And I really hope that anyone interested in getting into his music finds this helpful. Once again, the theories/interpretations mentioned aren’t conclusive, they’re widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation.
Due to the character limit I couldn’t add too links to the albums, so here are some artist links.
Apple Music | Spotify | YouTube | The Weeknd’s Shop | Tidal | Genius
submitted by AHSWeeknd to popheads [link] [comments]

"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)

I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
 
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to.
Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547
I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can.
I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts.
Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T

Intro

CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association

"Who does this union really fucking serve?"

ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission

"They have been put in an impossible position."

Stream Sniping

"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"

Match Fixing

"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."

North America

"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."

Talent

"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."

Valve

"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"

Closing Statements

"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."

submitted by Tharnite to GlobalOffensive [link] [comments]

With the recent influx of new users - I decided to post a guide to Pump and Dump schemes - what they are, how to avoid them and how to move on from them

TLDR: Following the recent DOGE and XRP situations, and our influx of new users - I have decided to put together a quick guide on what a pump and dump is, how to spot it, how to avoid it, and what to do should you fall for one. This is just my thoughts on the issue and by no means exhaustive. I welcome comments and my biggest recommendation if you fell for one of these schemes is to accept it, address your emotions, seek support - either by those around you or here if you feel more comfortable, then commit to educating yourself.
 

Summary:

A pump and dump scheme is where a group of people pitch a coin (or stock) to other people to spike short term volume, and therefore the price, in order to profit from selling their own supply at the higher price to the newer investors.
 
How to spot a PnD:
  Tips to avoid - see below but the main two for me are:
 
 

What is a Pump and Dump scheme?

  A Pump and Dump scheme (PnD from here on in), is where an investor, or group of investors promote a coin they already hold (or are purchasing) in order to cause positive sentiment and the price to rise. At this point these investors will then sell their coins to the newer investors, causing the price to crash and leave the people who fell for the PnD with a large potential loss, or coins which are now worth a lot less than the price they paid for them.
These are not new and were traditionally done via phone call. If you have watched the Wolf of Wall Street, or similar films about penny stocks, you have seen this stuff in action. If you are buying, you are the retail investor who gets taken for a ride.
With the recent influx of new users to this site, and following the PnD schemes surrounding Doge and XRP, lets take a look at how to spot a PnD scheme
 

How to spot a PnD scheme?

 
  • Promises of huge gains, in a short amount of time. If it sounds too good to be true, it is. In crypto (and stocks) if someone is talking to you about something, they are selling you their position. If it is positive - they likely own it, if it negative - they either want prices to fall or they hold a competitor. Ask yourself, why someone would be going out their way to tell you something is a once in a lifetime opportunity? If it was, they would be keeping it secret and accumulating themselves. These people are salesman, and you are the one buying the bullshit
  • Linked to the above there is often a time element - 'get in quick, or you will miss it', they are relying on your impulsive decision making to jump in - they are manipulating you to over ride the logical part of your brain which makes decisions based on information and context
  • There is no discussion of any potential risks or downsides, and you are removed from groups or harassed for asking basic questions - this is a hive mind at work, and you are being censored from raising any concern or legitimate question.
  • There may be reference to 'how this time is different', or it plays on recent successes which are in no way comparable - e.g Game Stop - anyone who paused for a second would realise why not only was financially the short squeeze on GME completely different, but also the moral stand point was too. XRP, for example, is a centralised system which enriches the founders beyond belief. Yet these groups tried to ride the sentiment of GME to convince others to join - as a show of rebellion and alliance.
  • Social media storms are cooked up, it seems like out of nowhere this is all anyone can talk about - when has this ever proven a successful decision? Once everyone is talking about it, you are already too late. You may not lose money, if you are lucky, but you are still the one being duped. Again this is feeding on emotion and Fear of Missing Out. There will be groups created and ran by mods who run them like cults - no talk of anything but price going up is accepted.
  • There is a time or plan attached - e.g. Pump and Hold at 8:30. For the love of god, if this is the case, sell before then. All the leaders of these groups will have done. All of these public announcements are done again to create legitimacy and make you feel at ease - as a collective.
  • Generally any concept of 'we are in this together', coming from a group trying to actively push up the price of something short term = PnD. You are not in this together, markets are competitive - they are survival of the fittest whether you like it or not. They want your money, when you listen to them - you are basically offering to hand it over. People invest to make money, especially when the entire premise is pushing a price up to get rich. They do not want what is good for you, they are using you and they will take your money if you allow them to. They are telling you, because you are the opportunity - not the coin.
  • Be aware, people telling you to hold and buy more, are using you. They want you to push the price back up so they can sell. If you are in these groups - on social media, be aware you may be talking to bots, or at the least people who are trying to dump on you. When it drops, get out.
 
 

How to avoid PnDs in future

 
  • 'Why are they telling me this?' - this is the first and main question to ask yourself. What does the person sharing the information have to gain from telling me? In this case - you invest and push the price up, allowing them to make greater profit. Understand why they would be sharing details with you - if it such a great thing, why are they sharing it?
  • if it is a friend telling you, ask for more information - why it is doing well, what the plan is etc - if they can't explain it properly, this is a big red flag and they likely have fallen for it too.
  • Look out for how someone talks to you about it - is it emotionally driven, does it make you excited? scared to miss out? - This is exactly when you need to step back, breathe and ask yourself if you are thinking correctly. Emotional decision making is not a good thing here, and then ask if they are intentionally trying to get an emotional reaction out of you? (see the above - FOMO, get rich quick etc)
  • Is there any room for nuance? Are you able to discuss the potential cons or risk? If you are laughed at, or harassed, others are told to ignore you (he won't be getting rich, weak hands, pathetic seller) - this is a huge sign that you are investing in something where no other thoughts are allowed. The reason for this, once you are out the bubble - logic returns and you see the smoke and mirrors for what they are. PnD groups work like a cult, only one form of thinking is allowed, everything else is censored.
  • Did this come out of nowhere, do I even know anything about this? If you don't know anything about it, except it makes money, don't invest in it. This is a terrible decision for two reasons. Firstly, and most obviously, you have asymmetric information - you have no idea why and what you are buying, therefore can't make an informed decision - only an emotional one. Equally, this kind of thing pushes panicked, emotional selling. When you don't know fundamental reasons why you invest in something, when the price dips you will sell. Why? because when your brain asks you the question 'shit it is dropping, what do we do?!' - your logical brain won't have an answer, because you never gave it the information to form one. This second part is more relevant to regular investments, not PnDs of course, but is worth bearing in mind before you invest in anything.
  • Was the coin relatively stagnant, or has it dipped recently? PnDs typically target coins which haven't moved much recently, or have lower trading volume, this allows for a much easier spiking of the price due to a small change in demand equalling a big change in price. If you look at the charts and it was doing nothing until this big flurry of activity - you are being taken for a ride.
  • Look for the news, if it is pumping, don't listen to people inside the group - search for reasons why something is pumping. If you can't find anything of value, there probably isn't anything, and you are gambling on emotional decisions.
  • The opportunity finds you, you don't find the opportunity. Getting rich off 'undervalued' coins, or finding a hidden gem is not easy. They are hidden for a reason. If someone is coming to you with this, remember they are selling. You are buying.
  • If someone does approach you, talk to someone else outside of the bubble - find another group e.g. CC, or other investors - talk to them, get outside perspective before investing.
  • look for examples of populist sentiment. Do you hear things about an other? - e.g. haters, those missing out who are jealous. Are you made to feel like you are part of a special group? The ones with insider information? This is a lie, it is very very common manipulation within populist movements, cults etc - to create a narrative of an other to entrench tribalism within the group. This is done to make you switch your brain off, to rule on emotion.
  • is there a recent comparable story that was successful? e.g. GME (yes this isn't the same at all in reality, but the story being sold is - or at least plays on the hype of GME). If there is, you are being played. The real opportunity, just like the hidden gem, is the first one. When people tell you this is happening again, they are simply using the positive news from one case and applying it to their own - often because it lacks any actual, real, tangible reason for succeeding or being a good investment.
 
 

I fell for a PnD, what next?

 
Have you sold yet - No? Are you in profit? Sell. Whilst you still can. Greed will tell you not to, and perhaps you can eek out a little more money. But you are gambling, and gambling extremely high risk against people trying to take all your money.
 
Yes, you have sold. Did you make a profit? Yes - great. You are still a an idiot, just a lucky one. Tell yourself that. There is a difference between opportunist traders taking advantage of PnDs and someone getting lucky and getting out before it collapses. Do not confuse the two. The first group know what they are doing (and they may still lose, but they are aware of the real risk). You are fucking lucky. Don't do it again. So count your blessings, go through the same process of learning about PnDs and begin to understand why you fell for it, how to avoid it in future and realise you are up - you won. Don't go back in, you are asking to lose.
 
Yes you have sold? Did you make profit? No? Ok, this is normal - 90% + of people doing this will end up in the same situation.
 
  • Recognise and accept your mistake. Do not feel ashamed of it, it is ok. You were played, it happens to all of us in our lives at some point.
  • Step away from whatever device you used to invest. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO WIN IT BACK RIGHT AWAY. You will most likely make things worse, investing again on emotions - even worse emotions now, shame, anger, disbelief.
  • Talk to the important people in your life if you feel comfortable, if not, come here or to other anonymous groups for support. It is important to share what happened, to vent emotionally whatever it is you feel.
  • Realise it is only money, even if gambled way more than you should have done, long term you will get out of this. Focus on other areas of your life for the time being - emotional investment, fulfilment and development - seek out things which may centre to your emotions again, whatever that may be - getting out in nature, cooking, reading, adrenaline sports - whatever the shit you need, do it.
  • Consider who, if anyone needs to know. Did you borrow from you and your wife's joint account? Accept a loan from a mate? These people need to know the truth. Do not hide it and hope to win it back. Tell the truth. They deserve it.
  • Do not repeat the same actions, if you want to win long term from this - you need a different approach. Step away from the high stakes casino and figure out long term strategies to make money.
  • Learn to diversify and manage risk. You are taking a huge gamble going all in on something - even if it isn't a scam, you need to protect yourself through diversifying your investments. Get rich quick schemes are the fastest way to lose money.
  • Educate yourself on these behaviours - I would recommend 'Thinking Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahnemann as a personal favourite. This book helps to look at and address the biases that make up our emotional decision making, and learn how to recognise these and instead 'think slow'. You won't regret reading it.
submitted by Anhowa123 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Arrived into Florida safely with a very traditional Florida greeting. And by traditional Florida greeting, I mean there's a dude 20 feet away from where I'm fishing and he is smoking meth or crack under a tarp that's tied to his stolen grocery cart. Fun bed-time story included for the whole family.

"Welcome to Florida, and Have a Nice Dementia", is what the sign at the Tampa Bay Airport should say. Instead, it says something about beaches or oranges or manatees or some shit; just enough airbrushed propaganda to keep the geriatric New Jersians excited about their newly reincarnated/refurbished life in the Tropicana Senior Living Estates (conveniently located next to Publix Grocery, WaWa gas station, and the Bingo Casino).
Yeah, every bit of the stereotype is true: Florida is filled with old people. Old people that shouldnt drive, yet still do, which in turn makes me feel like a paranoid skitzophrenic on the verge of death for simply trying to walk across the street at a crosswalk.
Here's two more stereotypes that are also true:
1) Florida is full of meth addicts and crackheads.
2) Florida is full of unbelievably hot chicas.
Yes, every stereotype you've ever heard about Florida, including the friendly manatees, is absolutely 100% true. Don't question it, nor be surprised, if you ever come.
But hey, I fucking love old people. I do. I love talking to them. They're over all of the angst and politicized shit you hear from every young hipster or redneck, and they have a fuck ton of cool stories to talk about. I LOVE OLD PEOPLE.
And hey, though it's taboo to say, fuck it, I love drug addicts too. I do, I really do.
They most certainly win the award (there's no award for this) when it comes to the CRAZIEST FUCKING STORIES and experiences you will ever, ever hear about. Ehhh fuck it, half of the stories may be lies or imaginations that they firmly believe to be true basely solely on whichever drug-induced high has inspired them...but the other half of those stories are probably VERY true and surely the craziest you will ever, ever, hear. Want some unspoken validity or verification of why they have the craziest storiest, and moreso how you know those stories are true? Allow me...
Imagine you were a 13 year old girl raised by a prostitute mother and drug dealing father. Now imagine your mother killed your father, so now you have to work the streets selling your vagina so that you and your mother could get high together with your new step-dad that is actually your mothers pimp. Now imagine you spend the next 15 years of your life attempting to kill your step dad while also still selling your vagina for more drugs. Now imagine you found God and Jesus Christ, but you firmly believe they are aliens and that just makes you wanna do more meth.
Now THAT person has interesting stories...way more interesting than someone raised in the securely nested suburbs of the gentrified side of town, who went on to get her Associates degree in nursing and has two healthy baby boys signing up for Little League and the smartest daughter in the world that just won her first spelling bee. Fucking blow me to sleep...yawn....crack ho wins in the "1 up you" category of storytelling, guaran-fucking-teed.
I digress.
Florida.
Fucking Florida.
I gotta tell ya, I love it. And I love it for the reasons you likely hate it. Something something, "to each their own", something, blah-dee-friggin blah, whatever. I love it.
Aaaaand I hate it.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand that very contradiction, that complex differentia of love and hate...well, that just makes me love it even more. Spice of life shit, really...
SPICE OF LIFE. Perhaps that should be the words of welcome in the Tampa Bay International Airport:
Welcome to Florida: The Spice of Life. Read back of sign for exciting dinner recipe ideas: Take two filets of manatee, marinate overnight in meth, add a dash of mothballs and VOILA...Florida Surf n Turf!
I'm trying to fish, and this guy smoking meth 20 feet away from me is striking his lighter 20 times in as many minutes. He's now asking to borrow my lighter. I threw my lighter at him and it landed just short of him in a splash of sand. He has been non-stop looking for that lighter for nearly an hour, likely forgetting why he even needed my lighter and now convinced he his hunting for some buried treasure left behind by Hernando De Soto. To each their own...
Women. Yes Florida has some goddamn beautiful women. But I want nothing of them...fakest women I've ever seen and never want to meet in my life. Alright alright mayyyybe for one night, depending on the severity of whatever std is included in the drama package. Ugh. They are materialistic as hell, have the highest standards that they will never ever deserve, and will likely break/kill your heart faster than chicken fried steak. A bunch of hot uppity bitches that probably know one sex position: "oh baby, let me lay on my back and be fake as fuck because that's actually all I ready do at ANYTHING in life anyway. Tee hee."
And I assure you ladies, that goes for the men here too...they're uppity little bitch boys as well, who probably last around 2.4 minutes total in bed before they go back to playing Call of Duty or playing Texas Hold Em' with the other apes.
Do not get into a relationship with anyone that claims to live long-termin Florida. (And by long term, I mean almost than 1 year). Just don't. Just let that person wither sleezily away into...i don't know...early dementia, or meth (likely both) without you. Ain't worth it...jus ain't worth it.
A fish is biting my line. And I just lost it because I'm busy talking to you assholes on Reddit. I need to find my goddamn lighter also before this tweaker loses both my lighter and his mind forever trying to find desotos treasure.
Goodnight sleepyheads. Kiss
submitted by huckstah to vagabond [link] [comments]

Unleashed pt. 52

 
First / Prev / Next
 
 
Alexa was sitting cross legged before Sassie, with Aiov lying casually on the German Shepherd’s back. She had a metal bowl in her lap with chunks of fresh meat for Aiov and cooked meat for her large canine protector. It had been a difficult time as the dog had missed Aaron more and more, to the point that she had begun to refuse food. Aiov's enthusiasm, however, seemed to help slightly in countering that refusal, and Alexa had found that feeding them together at least got some food into the lonely Earth ambassador.
She scratched at the dog’s head as Aiov happily chomped on another scrap of meat. “Look at that! You won’t be outdone by a leokit now, will you?” She placed a cube of seared meat before Sassie’s nose. She sniffed it twice before eating. “You’re going to be so spoiled by the time we get him back. We’ll both get in trouble.”
Aiov snuggled into the thick black and tan fur, using her paw to guide the next morsel into her mouth. Sassie managed a few more pieces before turning her head away with a grunt. Satisfied with what she had achieved Alexa gave a few more scraps to Aiov before placing the bowl into the recycler. The loudspeakers throughout the Rinoxian vessel blared a loud message announcing they had now crossed into Hive space and that their readiness was being moved to level three.
Her door chimed. Opening it, she found Allistan in his new Terran Wolves uniform. “You need to come quickly, the Porkchop Express has arrived.”
As she grabbed Aaron's old leather jacket, Sassie immediately rose to follow which caused Aiov to roll to the floor. "You come," she spoke to the dog, then turned to the distinctly unhappy leokit who had just lost her warm pillow. "You stay, sorry.”
They walked briskly through the corridors of the Rinoxian warship towards a secure meeting room which had two Terran Wolves outside the door. Their black uniforms and red collars were easily identifiable and they gave sharp salutes as Alexa approached. “I told you not to salute.”
The two guards lowered their hands sheepishly as the doors opened. Sassie immediately surged past Alexa to happily greet the returning crew members. She moved from Ranjaz to Jaym, receiving many scratches and hugs. Even Eruwenn and Cygna received a quick examination, but she soon stopped when no sign of Aaron could be found. The German Shepherd forlornly returned to Alexa's side as the Awakened took a seat at the meeting table. “Is the room secure?”
Cygna, now in a smart black uniform with white collar, stood. “We have taken additional precautions due to the sensitive information we will be discussing.”
Tilting her head, Alexa took in the Fae’Dan’s new clothing. “You’re one of us now?”
Eruwenn gave a slight chuckle. Aside from Alexa, she was the only one not in uniform. “She lost a game of dalcho, or two.”
Seven.” Ranjaz said with a wicked grin. “Don’t worry, she’s actually been a fairly competent assistant. Aside from her gambling issues, obviously.”
Her head drooping to look at her feet, Cygna replied, “I swear by Tulseria’s right hand, I will get you back for this!”
The Kittran’s grin grew more predatory. “Wanna bet?”
There was a long table by the wall where Embar was fixing himself a drink, He turned, shaking his head. “I’m not sure I approve of your recruiting techniques.”
The Kittran shrugged. “She’s worth it – even broke the code on this.” He tossed the recovered device onto the table as Embar returned and took his seat opposite him. “And, you’re going to want a stronger drink, General.”
Curiosity piqued, Allistan took his seat, preparing his notepad and pen. “What did you find?”
Ranjaz was about to speak when Eruwenn held up her hand. “I think we should let General Embar read this first. He can take a moment before we all continue.”
Raising an eyebrow, Embar sat down in a nearby chair and connected the device to a non-networked datapad. “Why me?” He began scrolling through the files, tapping on icons and delving deeper. His breathing suddenly stopped, his face contorting. Disbelief morphed into anger, and as his body tensed, anger turned to white-hot rage. He placed the datapad down on the table before him and stood, walking back towards the drinks table. He lowered his head, his body radiating anger as his muscles clenched and unclenched, then raised his fist into the air and slammed it into the table. Bottles, glasses and everything else it had held went crashing to the ground as it buckled under force of his blow. “We’re going to kill every last one of those Sentinel bastards!”
No longer smiling, Ranjaz stood. “You’re Tulseria damned right we are.”
Jaym was sitting silently, but she pulled a rag from her pocket and dabbed at her tears. After they had fled from the casino she had tried to help crack the encryption on the stolen device. Part of her wished they never had, as its contents had disturbed her so much. Now that they had finally caught up with Alexa, Embar and the others who had been on the Rinoxian homeworld, she empathised deeply with the pain this information was bringing. “It’s so awful, I’m so sorry Embar.”
Eruwenn patted the young Arkellian on the shoulder to comfort her as she looked at the Rinoxian. “Please believe me, General Warbringer. The council knew nothing of this.”
Alexa picked up the datapad, using her nanites to more quickly access the information. She grit her teeth, biting back her anger, then passed it quickly to Allistan. “You need to read this. Then we need to plan our next move.” She looked at the back of the unmoving Rinoxian. “Embar?”
Embar slowly turned around, his jaw set, determination in his eyes. “We keep this quiet. We’re on an active mission and need everyone focused on the job at hand.”
Allistan went to click his pen as he read, but with a gasp the pen fell from his fingers. “We can’t keep quiet, the galaxy needs to see this.”
The Rinoxian nodded. “They will. When the time is right.”
 
 
It had been two cycles and the incursion fleet had advanced deep into Hive space. Over half of the force accompanying them were the Rinoxians under their new Galactic Federation commanders. There were over a dozen Galactic Federation ships along with six Gowe destroyers, and a dozen ships from other races including the Niham and Kah’Ree. Admiral Pelar, on board the Blazing Dawn, commanded four Ashi ships including the Righteous Fury.
The smallest craft by far was the Porkchop Express, a speck amongst titans. Its white painted hull, chrome bull bars and bright cartoon logo were a stark contrast to the military ships it accompanied. Sassie was more comfortable now that she was in familiar territory, and slept on a pile of Aaron’s clothes in his quarters.
Allistan and Alexa were sitting opposite Jar’Bek in his small office. The Ashi looked exhausted as he finally put down his datapad. “I’m sorry to have kept you.”
Allistan fidgeted in his seat. “Not at all, was that your mother again?”
Stiffening slightly at the use of the word mother the lawyer forced himself to relax again. “Admiral Pelar has informed us that they have been repeatedly scanned by the Gowe. She’s taking no action, as we’re supposed to be allies, but wanted you to be aware.” Alexa nodded and he continued. “When we arrive at the next system the commanders of each ship have been called to the Hooves of Destiny. Vice-Admiral Koo Ji has requested an in person meeting, with all senior officers.”
There were several pen clicks. “That seems unusual.”
Jar’Bek gave a knowing nod. “Extremely. To remove every ship’s command, behind enemy lines? It makes no sense.”
Alexa pushed her hair back from her face. “The Rinoxians agreed to it?”
The Ashi nodded. “Most of their command have been replaced. Anyway, they outnumber – and outgun – the other ships. Why would they be concerned?”
Allistan’s pen clicked. “They probably just put it down to Gal. Fed. protocols, or fear.”
Jar’Bek nodded. “They’ve had us stopping in random systems to scan. No doubt it’s to delay us, but perhaps also to lower the Rinoxian’s guard?”
Leaning back in her chair, the Awakened considered the options. “Maybe there's another fleet waiting to ambush us? Or following us?”
Allistan twirled his pen in his fingers. “No, no. All eyes are on the border since Aaron’s capture. It must be something else.”
Moving on to her next idea, Alexa asked, “Sabotage?”
The Ashi gave a chuckle. “That is Admiral Pelar’s conclusion. The Gal. Fed. officers have been on board the other ships, and the possibility exists that there are Sentinels working amongst them. They are all in command positions, and will all be leaving. It’s a logical conclusion.”
Allistan’s pen halted its spinning. “The Ashi ships, they can’t have been sabotaged, right?”
The lawyer nodded. “True, but, it wouldn’t matter. Their ships are old and have seen too much action. Those Gowe ships alone are more than they could handle.”
The Fae’Dan sighed and shook his head at the situation they were facing. “We should have brought more ships. The new ones.”
Alexa, staring at the ceiling, spoke softly. “No, we don’t need to show our hand just yet. But send word to Chae’Sol, make sure he has the coordinates.”
Jar’Bek nodded and made a note on his datapad. “What about the others?”
The Awakened closed her eyes. It was times like this she missed her human and his habit of taking charge. “Tell Embar to warn his contacts among the Rinoxians. The others… I have no idea, I just want to sleep.”
Allistan, a stickler for accuracy, replied, “I didn’t think Awakened slept?”
She sat up and gave a half-hearted smile. In an unusual moment of vulnerability, she replied, “I was told you can do anything in a dream. For those moments, we would all be together again.”
Allistan struggled to come up with a response to that, and the Ashi, having noticed this, stepped in to fill the gap in conversation. “We’ll find him. I can’t lose the most profitable client in the galaxy now, can I?”
Now past the moment of awkwardness, the Fae’Dan also answered. “I’m sure he’s fine. In fact, he’s probably already on his way back to us.”
Alexa gave Allistan a withering look. “You think he single-handedly defeated the Hive, stole a ship and managed to figure out how to fly it back here?”
The former Inspector paused to consider it. “No. It will most likely be something even more preposterous. Perhaps he married their Queen?”
The ridiculousness of the idea brought a chuckle to the Awakened. “Maybe. Hopefully nothing that drastic; he’d probably just turn their society upside down with some ridiculous scheme.”
Jar’Bek also smiled. “A little civil unrest, perhaps a few riots? No doubt with merchandise.”
Finally breaking into a broad grin, Alexa replied, “I think we all might be over-estimating him a little.”
 
 
Aaron stood in the trade area of Toivoa station with a contingent of Gardener Royal Guards behind him, Tsy’Lo by his side, and a very angry mob in front of him. Several well-dressed local leaders were dragged from the crowd to stand before him; Mycena, Tricinic, Procyon and a dozen other refugee races were crammed into the triple height area of the station.
One of the leaders staggered towards Aaron. “You! You caused this!”
Aaron, feigning as much innocence as possible, pointed to his chest. “Me?
One of the Mycena he had met during his time on the station came forward. “We’ve all seen the videos! They kept us in the dark about what is going on out there! The Galactic Federation are coming! Our leaders lied to us!”
The accusatory leader, a Procyon with greying fur, pointed at Aaron. “Your... Your propaganda, has driven them mad! Your lies! They’re destroying the station!”
The human smiled and maintained his innocent expression. “My propaganda?” Several in the crowd held up datapads; Aaron’s smiling face was on every one. “Oh... that propaganda.”
Tsy’Lo tugged on his sleeve. “What did you do?!”
Aaron crouched down slightly. “Remember when I accidentally picked up the kids datapad and you returned it?”
“Yes…” The Tricinic flushed orange as realisation struck. “It wasn’t the child’s datapad!”
Aaron straightened up. “Yeah, thanks for helping bring down society.” He laughed as Tsy’Lo became a very opaque green hue. “Don’t worry, I’ve got an idea.”
The greying Procyon shook his fist at the human. “You better! They should throw you in a cage for the rest of your life for this. Hundreds of celes of peace, destroyed!”
Aaron looked down at the angry alien. “Your peace, not theirs.” He gestured back towards the Gardeners, and walked towards them without waiting for a reply. He raised his hands high, motioning for the unruly mob to settle down. “Alright, alright. Settle down, munchkins. So the wizard’s a liar? Welcome to reality. The Gardeners have been fighting and dying to keep you safe from the flying monkeys, while you all hide in your Emerald City and get on with your lives. That shit ends now. You’re crying out for change? Then welcome to the revolution, baby! We’re opening up the borders, we’re rejoining the rest of the galaxy! No more hiding!”
The crowd was already worked up, and cheering came easily despite the large lack of understanding. The human nodded — he was enjoying this far too much — and then gestured again for quiet. He spoke quietly at first, adding excitement to his voice as it built in power. “So prepare for a chance of a lifetime! Be prepared for sensational news!”
The Procyon official’s mouth opened and closed silently before he managed to shake his mind free of the initial shock of the human’s words. “No! Stop! What are you even saying?”
Aaron didn’t care about the official. He put the palm of his hand on their face, which easily dwarfed it in size, and gently pushed them slowly backwards. He then leapt up onto a crate; his showmanship on camera was nothing to his on-stage presence. “A shining new era is tiptoeing nearer, and where do you feature? Just listen to teacher! You’ve stagnated here for long enough. Lied to and kept in the dark, well, no more!”
The crowd was his, he knew it. The official knew it. Tsy’Lo knew it and was a nervous shade of blue. Aaron clambered from the crate to the roof of a stall, standing high above the crowd. The cheers followed every rambling sentence and, drunk on power, Aaron was loving it. “Spread the word to every planet, every station, every colony and every ship. Change is not coming, it’s here and it is now!”
The crowd roared again, and the desperate official turned to Tsy’Lo. “What in the nine moons is he talking about?”
“I’ll tell you what I’m talking about.” Aaron snapped. He stood looking out over the crowd. “I am the Ambassador of a world called Earth. I have taken ownership of a small star system that is being colonised as we speak. These colonies are a coalition of races, from within the Federation, as well as without. We rule ourselves, but have treaties and agreements with the Federation itself, as well as various individual races within it.”
Several questions were called out from the crowd, but one voice was louder than the others. “How does that help us?”
With a smile, the human walked back and forth across the roof of the stall as he spoke. “Good question my friend.” He pointed vaguely at where the voice had come from. “I do not have contact with my homeworld at this time. To ensure that all of whatever Earth has become would be included we put in place clauses for future territories, dominions, settlements etc, etc…” The crowd was quiet now, trying to follow the human’s explanation. Looking out at the blank faces Aaron realised he needed to get to the point. “Congratulations, you’re now a protectorate of Earth!”
He was met with utter silence. 
Suddenly, there were several angry yells from the crowd, some claiming this was a joke while others were simply confused. The official was the one who dared clamber to the crate below Aaron in order to yell up to him. “Are you insane?”
Aaron’s smile made Tsy’Lo shudder, as it was the same one he had given as he had explained his idea to the Gardener Queen. The human stepped forward to stand at the front of the stall roof. “I declared war on the Gardeners. The war lasted seven Earth minutes, and was quickly resolved when the Queen surrendered to me in person.”
Silence fell once again, and Aaron found himself half-yearning for the sound of crickets to emphasize the moment.
The crowd erupted once more, outrage at the ridiculous claims the strange alien was spewing forth. Tsy’Lo released a deafeningly loud harmonic whistle which was followed by another momentary quiet. They paled as the crowd's attention fell on them. “You need to listen, all of you. He is speaking the truth, sort of. He held the Queen and the Gardeners council hostage with a bomb.” Small grey particles filled the Tricinic at the memory of being used as a weapon. The crowd began to grow rowdy at this news, causing Tsy’Lo to let off another sonic blast. “It is all a human trick; once we are part of his alliance we fall under the treaties he already has in place.”
The crowd looked back up to the human. “Like I said, congratulations. You just walked in through the backdoor of a peace treaty with the Galactic Federation, and over a dozen separate treaties with other races.”
The crowd were now arguing amongst themselves. The official - who Aaron was now mentally calling Gobshite - once again challenged him. “At what cost, though? What do you get out of this?”
The smile of mischief once more graced the human’s lips and Tsy’Lo considered pulling him down from his stage. They had been on their way to the border when news of the riots on Toivoa reached them. Aaron’s presence had been demanded and he had happily accepted. The human looked almost as gleeful as that moment of acceptance when he spoke again. “Me? I get to go home. I get friends with big sticks. I get to trade openly with you, and believe me, I have a lot of crap to sell you.” He chuckled. “You get to be part of the galaxy again. You get to travel and trade. Our rules are simple and fair; everyone is equal under the law. You have exactly the same rights as everyone else who joined us. And the cost?” He paused for effect, making sure they were all paying attention. “You stand on your own two feet.” He glanced around, noting the sheer diversity of the crowd. “Or one foot... or four... Or whatever it is you’re balancing on.”
The crowd was a buzz of conversation, and Gobshite once again chimed in. “You think they’ll let us back without a fight? We can expose them! Those bastards tried to exterminate us!”
The crowd jeered along with the old Procyon. Aaron held up his hands. “Woah, woah. Only some of them. That’s the thing, there are a lot more members now. So here’s the plan: shut up. If you don’t say anything, they sure as shit aren’t going to out themselves, are they? While everyone is staring at the former Hive terror that they all feared, you guys just start working and trading, nice and quiet.”
A few murmurs of agreement came from the crowd. Gobshite, however, was more than a murmur. “You want us to forget our ancestors suffering?”
A little irritated, Aaron was more harsh than he intended. “You’ve wallowed in it long enough. Look at you, hiding for generations, keeping your communications to a minimum to avoid detection. Is this all some master plan as you build an army to seek revenge? Fuck no!” He saw the shame on their faces. “You’re happy to leave this status quo to future generations? You want to remember the suffering of your ancestors, fine, build a fucking statue. But don’t hold back your children to do it.”
The crowd were growing louder again as they discussed his words. “Look!” the human yelled. “I’m not saying you forget, or forgive. I’m saying you keep your mouths shut. We won’t announce your presence to the Federation. Instead, I want those of you looking to start something new to come join the new colonies. No big fanfares, just get on with it. In a place filled with different races, you’ll just be another stranger.”
He saw the crowd looking at each other, and knew was a lot to take in all at once. “We gather evidence, build trust. Get yourselves established, forge friendships and alliances, and become accepted as part of the new colonies. Let those in the know think their past crimes are forgotten. And when we are ready, we burn down their false history and anyone who tries to defend it!”
The crowd cheered once more, and Aaron smiled triumphantly down at Tsy'Lo as he leapt casually from the roof. As he landed, many hands patted his back and many questions were yelled, but it all ceased as one of the Gardeners stepped forward. It was Eridor, as there was no mistaking the red cape he wore. "We need to leave, the Federation have entered our space.”
Next
submitted by Sooperdude24 to HFY [link] [comments]

MS Relationship "Advice" Live

Shout out to u/sprinkydinks73 for requesting this review. Much like MS, I guess I am just a sucker validation from strangers on the internet. So here is a long rambling about her relationship with C that she has somehow deemed general relationship advice.
MS sets the tone by screeching, "#nofilteramIright?!" She loves Instagram filters though, and will probably always use them because she thinks they're fun. Over a bowl of cinnamon toast crunch, MS started reminiscing about how far her relationship with C has come and therefore decided she wants to do a "relationship advice" style live today. She gives a rough TL of their relationship: First date in 2017, became bf/gf in 2018. But 2020-21 was the first full year they've gone without breaking up. She acknowledges maybe she shouldn't be the one giving relationship advice, in part because she doesn't like speaking on C's behalf and putting everything out into the open since he's not really a social media guy. But this is about advice of course, not strictly the intimate details of her relationship, right? Wrong. She proceeds to tell us her and C broke up in July 2017, and New Years of 2019, and then got back together last January. So today she's going to tell us what made her relationship work so well this year because they've been BFFs lately. She jokes she would much rather talk about shitting her pants than her relationship.
Now Ms proceeds to talk at length and in detail about her relationship. Previously, MS had felt very insecure in her relationship with C for various reasons. After high school, C went to a big state school and was in a frat, meanwhile during that parallel time in her life MS was in her first marriage before getting divorced in 2014. After that, she went on a self-described 'wild phase. She also always assumed sorority girls were hoes, which is lovely. According to her, she had strict parents and for example, wasn't allowed to wear nail polish until high school. She later admits she was wild in high school, but not that wild because all she did was sneak out and go to parties and have a few beers and smoke weed. So it sounds like her parents maybe weren't so unreasonable after all. She always wanted to be a cheerleader but her parents said no, only because you "should not cheer for someone else, you should have people cheering for you!" So she did ballet instead. And if she was going to college she had to be there on a sports scholarship or be there to "pursue an education", and she was never good enough at any sport to get a scholarship. And I guess she just didn't care to pursue an education instead. Her sister did however get a soccer scholarship. after she got divorced then she went on a real crazy phase while she was waitressing and drinking/smoking a lot after work.
C was apparently really popular in his frat, and he was a flywheel instructor at the time so he was in really good shape back then. So a bunch of gorgeous college girls would take his class. And so when they first got together, she was insecure about the fact that C had female friends because she never really had guy friends. All the guys she met would either want to date her or sleep with her appearance. She's a total girl's girl, who doesn't really have guy friends. There was one girl who lived in the area, and something in her 'gut' told her something was going on. So she would cry, and go through his phone all the time, and part of the reason they broke up the second time was that he was tired of her doing that. He didn't feel like she trusted him, and she kept violating his privacy. Nothing she found was under the category of cheating, she just found normal exchanges between him and his female friends. Her last bf before C was what she calls 'protective' and would frequently look through her phone, but she "knew she wasn't cheating so it was never an issue". This is a really toxic mindset. Anyways, this female friend in question would invite C out places, and then if he mentioned MS was coming along with them the friend would allegedly cancel the plans last minute. She would then talk all this trash about C's friend and how ugly and terrible she is. Then they'd get into a fight because C would defend his friend and tell her to not be so insecure. Eventually, they sat down and decided to tell C's friend that she needs to learn to deal with MS coming out with them sometimes because they're together now. And the friend allegedly said sometimes MS made her feel insecure because MS is just such a badass. She admits she felt that the friend had an 'agenda', not that she necessarily wanted to be with C but that the friend wanted C to break up with MS.
She then goes "shit! he's about to walk in the door. when he walks in we're going to pretend to be talking about something else". Apparently, C doesn't like being put on blast to all her followers! C comes in and says hey, and she goes "Hi baby" and he leaves the room. She then resumes talking about their relationship just as loudly as before. She was just being this 'too cool' aloof girl, and C wanted her to communicate with him more. But she doesn't go through his phone anymore, because he got a new phone and changed his password to a 6 digit one. She's so confident, but she has issues with men because of her relationship with her dad and her ex-BF who cheated on her. Except when her dad gives her rent and purse money, then they're good. But she reminds us she still watches C's Instagram feed, and if she sees any hot girls on his feed he makes him unfollow them.
Anyway, her main relationship tips are communication, setting your boundaries, being able to banter together. C tells her a lot she can't take a joke, because he will make the smallest criticism in jest and MS will get really mad right away and say something actually mean back. But she never takes anything she reads online seriously though guys! The biggest change this time around for her and C was "wanting it" more. Usually, as soon as they fight, MS will shut down and say he's done with the relationship without talking about it at all. And now MS has realized life without C sucks, so the fights are worth choosing to talk through. Wow, imagine that. Also, apparently, guys are just not smart, or at least they just don't think about what women want and fail to compliment them as much as they want. So now she tells C "give me a compliment" or "I need attention". She then reads some comments and mentions she and C make date night a priority, and they always go out Sundays after church. Not sure about this one, I've seen her go to church maybe 3 times the past few months. But they do eat out a LOT. And they eat dinner together every night and try to do fun activities, like tonight they're going to an ax-throwing place tonight. I am imagining a picture of her holding an ax later tonight with a caption about strong women/female empowerment. She ended up not going to the casino because she didn't know how the weather would be, but she's going to go have a date night with C and play pool. She signs off by blowing a kiss to the camera, and saying she will save the live because she hopes everyone will find it "insightful"
submitted by leesk01 to YouniquePresenterMS [link] [comments]

[pi] The Devil Is In The Details

Inspired by: [WP] As you successfully summoned the Devil himself, he promised to grant you any wish for your soul as payment. He wasnt prepared for you to say "I wish you can make up with God".
Lucifer blinked, certain he’d misheard. The child who didn’t look old enough to spell his name looked up at him from where she stood at the head of her salt drawn pentagram. “It-it’s not that easy,” he stammered, looking for an adult that he could have a reasonable conversation with.
“But you can do anything,” she insisted. “So why can’t you do this?”
Lucifer lifted a hand, then dropped it at his side. “Why is this so important to you, kid?”
“Whenever I have a fight at school, Miss Gradel makes me sit down and talk to them. I don’t like it, but she says we have to.” She lifted her chin to look up at him. “And if I have to, so do you.”
Lucifer’s shocked features melted into understanding. “Ahhh, I see,” he purred. “Misery loves company. You know I coined that phrase, right?”
“What?”
Lucifer closed his eyes. This kid summoned him from his Casino chain in Vegas to … wherever in the world he was, by using a complicated ritual involving incantations that most of this world’s people knew nothing about, but she didn’t know what it meant to coin a phrase?
“How about I get you a winged pony, kid? One that sits in your pocket and breathes fire and eats the kids you fight with. Then you won’t have to sit through Miss Gradel’s interventions anymore.”
The girl looked thoughtful, and Lucifer believed he had a winner.
“You’re scared of him.”
Ahhhhh….what? “Nooooo,” Lucifer insisted.
“Yes, you are. He’s your Dad and you had a big fight with him, and now you aren’t talking anymore. I still don’t like Miles Tooley, but after we were made to talk, I found out he was a bully because his dad was. And that got me thinking. What if there’s something in God’s past that you don’t know about? Something that stops you two from being close.”
Lucifer chuckled and looked at the ceiling overhead. “Kid, The Almighty is an open book, and as his creations, we all play our part. Mine is to be the black sheep that can never go home. Without me, people have no reason to follow his word. I was banished, kid. Do you get that? It's pretty hard to kiss and make up if I’m not allowed back and he never leaves.”
“So, you’re stuck here?”
Lucifer shrugged. “It’s complicated.”
“But you promised me anything I wanted.”
Lucifer raked his fingers through his hair. “Okay, kid. I’m not supposed to do this, but I really need you to rethink that promise before it gets us both killed. You look like a very smart young lady, so tell me if I’m going too fast for you.”
He took a deep breath and continued. “I don’t really run Hell. It’s all a giant shell game of the higher-ups. A deal Dad struck with the real masters of Hell a long time ago, back when Uriel and I were friends. I’m just a figurehead who got in over his head and our fathers came to this solution. I screwed up and cost Hell a chunk of their lost souls … that they weren’t using,” he added quickly, knowing that defence hadn’t saved him all that time ago when he was brought back to Heaven in chains amidst the very angry Highborn Hellions. “And a deal was struck between them. I had to pretend to rule Hell so that evil-doers had somewhere other than Heaven to go.”
Lucifer looked down at her wide eyes and wondered if he had already said too much. But, as the saying went, what the hell. He kept going. “And Hell got the double bonus of extra souls to torment and all the power that came from the belief that I ruled Hell.”
“That’s not fair.”
Lucifer’s laugh was hollow. “That’s the point, kid. The Highborn Hellions don’t do anything fair. The deck is ALWAYS stacked in their favour.”
“What would have happened to you, if this deal wasn’t made?”
Lucifer blinked again. He had never really thought about that. “I’d be dead, I guess,” he said.
The little girl smiled. “Then Heaven did get something else out of it. The Almighty got to keep you, even if he had to send you away afterwards. You lived, after making a mistake that should have killed you.”
Lucifer turned away from her, staring at the brick wall of the girl’s basement. Is that even … no, he told himself. No … noo … He hates me. That’s why he exiled me. Salvaging a deal out of that screwup was a bonus. Getting rid of me was intentional because he hates me for not being like the rest of my rim-licking, goodie-two-shoes brothers and sisters.
It was a mantra that had served him well since his exile. He could feel better about it if he hated them first and more.
“Maybe you’re right,” the girl said, causing him to look back over his shoulder at her. “You can’t make up with someone who already loves you so much he sent you away to protect you.”
Lucifer swallowed. He didn’t want this. He didn’t want to think as she did. But now that the nugget had been placed in his mind, he could feel it already growing. “Kid, do you mind if we pick this up another time?” he asked, no longer wanting to be there.
“Will you come back if I call?”
“Do you know how to toss a coin?” he asked.
When the girl nodded, Lucifer flicked her a very special coin. “Flip this in the air, darlin’,” he said. “I’ll be back before it lands to continue this talk.”
The girl turned it over and over in her hands. “Promise?”
“Devil’s honour,” he said, curling his fingers into the hellion sign that over recent decades had become a rock symbol. More lies to feed the machine.
Two steps later, Lucifer had teleported himself back to the biggest of his casinos in Vegas. He went to the drinks cabinet that lined a wall and took down a bottle of Macallan ’52 and broke the seal on it. Then he walked out onto his balcony that overlooked the strip, though it wasn’t the bright lights that drew his attention.
No, as he tipped the bottle to his lips, his eyes went to the night sky overhead.
* * *
((All comments welcome))
For more of my work including WPs: Angel466 or an index of previous WPS here
submitted by Angel466 to HFY [link] [comments]

DD - Funko Toys

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below:

Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller
submitted by LavenderAutist to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Funko (FNKO) - Stop Toying Around

Hi all,
To celebrate the return of Undervalued to the Reddit community, I decided to put together a quick DD and post it on a stock that I have had my eye on for a little while. It's still a "work-in-progress" and I may potentially update it later on Reddit with more information or detail if I have time at some point in the future.
If you have any opinions, thoughts, or additional information, please share it. Positive. Negative. Neutral. All information is helpful and informative to the community. (I thought the feedback received from my first DD posted to this sub was quite helpful and I look forward to what you have to say.)
Thank you to u/BuyLowSellNever for turning the sub back on; allowing us to share and discuss ideas with the broader community in a thoughtful and respectful manner. Best wishes. - LA

Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

submitted by LavenderAutist to Undervalued [link] [comments]

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