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I wrote a long reply on why gambling, and loot boxes in particular, are bad...
So, inside some other post, I was asked why gambling is bad... My reply ended up being really detailed, so I'll promote it to a post of its own (just copy-pasting it here; no new words)... [Note: list of 3 points about loot boxes at the end...] (I work at a company that sells gambling services... I see how the sausage is made...) By the way, I love PoE and GGG. Still, loot boxes are bad. I personally get to see the statistics side of oddsmaking. It's always about suckering you out of your money, because by definition all you are doing is paying more money as the price of getting less money (on average), but you also need to feel like you have a chance at getting the upper hand, even though in the long run you don't. For example, sometimes, if you're really "good" at betting, you just end up working for the oddsmaker on a bad deal. It's really hard for them sometimes to get the odds perfectly right (although the profit margin still takes care of 99.9% of punters). So, if you're a professional gambler making a regular profit, what's basically happening is that you are investing an enormous amount of time and expertise to try and make tiny profits at the margins, and the bookmaker monitors your activity and learns about the market from you, at what ends up being a lower cost than if they hired experts to give them the same info on a salary. Plus you constantly run high risks! Which is why my company is full of ex-gamblers who were able to make a profit for a while, and intelligent enough to realise that they were still getting a bad deal, and come to the company and offer their services directly. (For another way gambling companies guarantee their own profits by passing on the risk to gamblers, research "balancing the books": yes, a professional gambler could make some profits this way, but if you're possibly making profits by taking on a risk that a large gambling corporation wants to get rid of, do you really think you're getting a good deal, especially considering how much time and expertise you sink into the activity? EDIT: more info) The only way I know of to make a consistent and considerable profit off gambling is when a pro gambler is allowed to make a profit off other gamblers, in a move that a company makes to increase total amounts played. So, for one person to profit, many others are being seriously scammed, and the company is safely skimming its percentages off the top. There are many different ways a gambling company presents bad deals to you, hoping that your intuition misfires about one of them and you decide to throw away your money. Examples... There are single bets, of course. But then there are also combinations, and these screw with your intuition--you can convince yourself based on a narrative (e.g. team 1 wins first half, team 2 comes back in second half), where in fact the actual hard cold odds are against you. There is "cash out" where you take a fraction of a likely-seeming win early (but at a loss), which of course simply taxes you for your risk aversion. There are "systems", creating more and more complex bets, until you convince yourself you've set up the perfect deal, and yet the company's profit margin keeps growing the more complex you make it. Anyway, those are the parts I work on as a software guy. (By the way, this isn't the worst thing in the world, it's not as bad, as, say, the military industry or the military itself, or say religions or banks, because at some level gambling is voluntary. And making gambling illegal is a terrible idea-we should fight it through education, not prohibition. Still, I only work there because I'm currently a completely non-creative software grunt (and currently satisfied with that). If I get to the point of pursuing higher-level jobs, I'll look elsewhere.) But the most nefarious part of all is the psychological work they pull on you. That's not my area of expertise, so if you want it explained you need to look elsewhere (recommended book: Thinking Fast and Slow--it's not about gambling, it's about psychology). They are constantly doing things to 1) give you false hope and 2) artificially trigger some pleasure response in you. E.g. most people are naturally risk averse and loss averse, e.g. losing $10 brings more pain than winning $10 brings pleasure. In reality, a gamble is about paying, say, $10 to win an average of, say, $9, so that's a terrible and painful deal. In addition to all the advertising and bright colours and encouraging sounds and making you read success stories and all the other psychological manipulations, they can also straight up befuddle you with numbers. So, losing $10 brings more pain than winning $10 brings pleasure, but what if you pay $10 but you're not really at a risk of losing that much, because on average you win $9 back, so you're only really risking a single $, and yet if you get lucky you won't win a mere $10 but millions? Suddenly that sounds good, right? Risk $1 to win $10000000? Of course not: you're still risking $10 and taking $1 losses on average each time you play, and the high rewards are vanishingly rare and built into that average. That's it about gambling for money. On loot boxes I'm no expert, but, beyond the basic problems (encouraging addiction, exploiting minors who beg money from parents and don't understand how they're throwing it away, generating gambling "pleasure" while giving you "bits" instead of any real value, etc), I can point out a couple of extra scummy aspects:
They can say "the box costs 30 points but all the possible rewards are worth at least 50, the average reward is worth 70 and the best is worth 400"... really??? Those prices are completely arbitrary... Who says the footprints are "worth" 50 or some random hideout decoration is "worth" 200? Talking about average microtransaction point values in a loot box is completely misleading.
Either you (a) lose on the statistics of getting complete sets or you lose on (b) being psychologically manipulated into buying extra stuff you didn't actually want so much (or (c) you just lose by getting useless stuff). Let's say you decide to pick up a couple of boxes and see what you get before buying more stuff. You might just get useless stuff, of course (case c). But what if you get the body armour or wings? Now you might say "I'll get more boxes to complete the set". But the chances of getting any one part of a set are not anywhere near as bad as your chances of completing a set (like map lab trials, but much worse because loot boxes contain many more items), so you are getting totally fleeced (case a). Alternatively you could go "oh look, I got x in the box, I'll buy matching items y and z from the shop later" so you think you got x cheap and y and z at normal prices. But you are being manipulated into buying y and z. Would you really have bought x and y and z from the shop if there had been no loot box? Only rarely. The rest of the time you are overspending (case b).
Loot box gifts are another scummy behaviour, considering people don't have good intuitions about statistics. Most of us get bad results from the gifted boxes, but some will get lucky. Those of us who are already gambling on loot boxes won't be affected by the outcome of a few extra boxes. Those who wouldn't ever buy them normally, and get bad results, who cares. But those who wouldn't normally buy them but get lucky a few times in a row might decide it's a good deal after all. So, it's manipulating us psychologically in a way that is statistically designed to fail at no cost most times and succeed sometimes, which makes money. (While also giving everybody holiday presents or race prizes, making the company appear generous.)
The January 15th official short interest report stated 61,780,000 shares had been sold short. On the 15th, the share price was about $35. This is a crucial piece of information to consider. Short Interest is reported twice monthly, so the last report before January 15th was from December 31st, and the next was issued today February 9th, revealing a (still) staggering 78.46% short interest. Keep in mind, this report only shows short interest up to January 29th. Lets go back to the January 15th report which told us that 61.78 million shares had been shorted at prices less than $35. In other words, every single short of those 61.78 million was betting the price would be less than $35, and it's more likely that most were shorted around the $15 - $20 mark. We do not know the exact numbers. But what we do know is some of these shorts closed out of their positions before, that is evident by the SI report we received today. We can also draw another inference from this data: MOSTshort positions from the January 15th report have NOT covered yet. Today's report confirmed this speculation. The hedge funds and other players were able to drive the price down from $483 to $65 in less than a week. Regardless of the illegal actions they took to make this happen. They knew they would be able to do this. It didn't even take that long. So why in the world would they have covered even a single share above $100?? It is my belief that only the shorts who lacked liquidity and spare capital to pay interest were margin called, or chose to bow out early. Today's report all but confirms this theory. If you need more evidence, look at the overall market bleed that took place on the days right before the cut-off date for this report. What does that mean for the big players? The ones who actually have capital to sustain high interest rates and play the long game to mitigate losses? They are waiting to bring the price down to an acceptable level, buying far OTM calls, and letting the hype die down a bit before they even begin to cover. The current drop in price has been working in the favor of hedges in three different ways. First, calls far OTM are very cheap, and hedge funds are able to scoop up millions of dollars worth of options that they will later be able to sell or execute for profit. During the first peak, the furthest OTM call available were too expensive and to NTM for hedges to offset their losses. If my theory is correct, hedges stand to gain substantially on their far OTM calls expiring Feb. 19th. Second, the extreme price drop means there are tons of shares available for hedges to short now. During the last rise, there were nowhere near enough shares for hedges to short as the price dipped. Finally, it is obvious that shorts are better off covering at $50 rather than $480. They have effectively weeded out a large number of paper hands and profiteers. But that is neither here nor there, as we still control a substantial portion of the float, keeping sustained pressure on the shorts. Furthering my hypothesis, I do not believe Citadel gave 2.75b to Melvin to flush down the toilet. They are expecting Melvin to mitigate as much of their losses as possible. How might they do this? First, check the amount of money placed on 800c for 2/19. Obviously a portion of this money can be accounted for by retail traders caught up in the media bubble two weeks ago hoping to cash-in on the squeeze. Alternatively, I believe a large magnitude of the calls may have been strategically planted by hedges who had very low short positions, i.e. ~$35, and did not plan on covering during the first massive peak. Why not? Because now they have the opportunity, (FLUSH with 2.75B in cash for Melvin), to do some serious damage control. Would a professional gambler pay off his debt with a loan, or would he use it to cut his losses before repaying his loan? Now we know atleast 78% of the shorts ~$35 DID NOT account for the massive price increase. If give/take 40% of the shorts who did actually exit their positions before 1/29 attributed to the $483 price spike, IMAGINE what 78% can obtain. ALSO, while it is certainly possible that a decent chunk of this 78% have slowly been exiting their positions since 1/29, we also know that a large number of greedy bastards have been taking their place at higher price points >100, > 200, >300. While these positions are extremely profitable at this time (i.e. some hedges mitigating losses, while some reap ginormous gains after watching on the sidelines until the 29th), the low entry ~$35 shorts will eventually have to cover their losses. This will trigger a domino effect by inevitably applying upwards pressure on the new, high entry shorts, who will see the tidal wave coming and immediately take their profits (or maximum mitigated losses) and get the fuck out of dodge while they still can. TLDR: The most logical way to cut losses (while simultaneously accruing massive interest on current positions) would be by attempting to short the stock the whole way down from the top of the media bubble then finally closing out the terrible ~$35 short positions after driving the price down as far as possible, knowing that the price will skyrocket back up after they cover now they can cash in another fat chunk of change on the 800c 2/19 then short the whole thing back down again. At the end of the day, I have no clue how much they would net in losses, because that is contingent on the accrual of interest and which is directly associated with the price price point they actually have shorts located at (only they know this). In any case, this chain of events is the most logical way for a billion dollar entity to mitigate losses on a failed bet. Again, I want to reiterate, WHY would a hedgefund loan $2.75B to another hedgefund if they had not run countless simulations in order to determine the best possible outcomes? Disclaimer: This is my personal hypothesis based on the facts provided to us. This should not be construed as financial advice. I'm just a law student who likes money, video games, and stonks.
Feb/4/2021: (1) Armenia will grow weed (2) Colonel charged w/bribery & tampering w/draft during war (3) Education reform: grading, curriculum, preschool (4) Bill: treason, disability ranking, media (5) Diplomacy (6) Rumors & rebuttals (7) Cancer stats & free treatment (8) $750M bond (9) in-out stats
Your 14-minute Thursday report in 3497 words. Part 1.
anti-corruption: Defense Ministry official busted with bribery & tampering with draft during war
NSS report says: a Colonel, who had oversight over subdivisions, received a ֏975K bribe from a conscript to transfer him to another location on Sep-13-2020. Part of the bribe was transferred to his online gambling account. When the war began, a draft was declared and recruits began training at a location in Armenia. The Colonel took a ֏1.2M bribe from a soldier in exchange for not sending him to the front lines. During the winter draft, the Colonel took a ֏5.2M bribe from another conscript and used his connections to send him to the desired service location. A similar ֏1M bribe was requested on January 6th from another recruit. The Colonel took another ֏1.4M bribe to help promote a conscript and allow him to work at a hospital instead of regular service. On October 22nd, during the war, the Colonel decided to help a friend move from bordering Khndzoresk (Syunik) hospital back to Yerevan. As a result, the clinic became understaffed and couldn't fulfill its duties. Moreover, the Colonel then helped the same friend not to be deployed on Syunik borders as a soldier and instead to handle tasks in the rear, on October 26th, in exchange for a ֏300K bribe. On October 13th, during the war, the Colonel and his accomplices wanted to help a soldier to leave Artsakh. When they learned that the latter was already on the "deserted" list, they took steps to remove him from the list. Then, he learned that his friends' sons received a draft notice, and use his connections to remove them from the draft list. After the war, on Dec-13, a friend asked the Colonel to make sure that his son, who was serving in Lusakert, wasn't sent to the front lines. The Colonel contacted the Lusakert facility but learned that the soldier was not among those who were supposed to be sent to the front lines. Nonetheless, the Colonel decided to defraud his friend by claiming that "he took care of it", and received a ֏200K bribe. The colonel and over a dozen others were arrested. Illegal weapons were found under their possession. The investigation continues to expose other possible suspects. https://youtu.be/ifo13WJLpsU https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042334.html
bill: harsher punishment for treason, spying, espionage
BHK MPs drafted a bill to increase punishment for traitors, spies, passing of state secrets. They want to raise the maximum punishment from 15 years to 20-life. The authors explained the move by citing many media reports about alleged "treason" incidents. The bill was discussed at a relevant Parliamentary committee. The chairman QP MP Vladimir said he supports life imprisonment as the minimum punishment. However, during the discussion, they agreed to settle on 15-20 years plus property confiscation, or a life sentence. The committee found the espionage punishment too harsh and asked the bill author to reduce it from 15 to 12 years. The BHK author agreed. The bill was approved unanimously and will be debated/voted on the Parliament floor later. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042354.html
Jalal is back with another position
The wounded ex-Artsakh army commander Jalal Harutyunyan will serve as the Republic of Armenia's Defense Ministry's Head of the Military Control Service. He will replace General Movses Mosi Hakobyan who quit on November 18th. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042353.html
Russian-Turkish ceasefire monitoring group begins operations
ECHR received Armenia's complaint against Azerbaijan regarding 228 POWs / Azeris counter-claim for 13 POWs
Armenian families submitted a petition to ECHR to require Azerbaijan to provide information regarding 228 individuals. Azeris want to know data about 13 people. (From the language it is unclear to me whether the petition is for confirmed POWs, or it also includes families of missing soldiers who want to know whether their relatives are POWs. Likely the former.) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042406.html
Russia removed tomato import ban on 13 Armenian firms
Russian regulator will allow 13 Armenian sellers to export tomato and pepper to Russia again after earlier finding a food virus in them. A similar ban was implemented against Azeri tomatoes. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042433.html
US Congressman demands an explanation from the US ambassador to Azerbaijan over "congratulatory" statement
Rep. Bred Sherman wants to know why the US ambassador to Azerbaijan Lee Litzenberger congratulated Azerbaijan's Economy Minister with "de-occupying territories and US's willingness to aid Azerbaijan with rebuilding those territories". He reminded the US officials that the US is a member of the Minsk Group and should take steps to ensure Artsakh's safety and prevention of a new war. Bred Sherman praised Biden's appointee Anthony Blinken for stating that the US will review its military assistance to Azerbaijan after the latest war in Artsakh. Artsakh MFA yesterday released a statement urging countries, officials, and organizations to refrain from such "congratulatory" statements. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042370.html
de-occupy Hadrut NGO
... aims to help 13,500 Hadrut residents who lost their homes during the war. It was founded during the war by activists who held protests in front of various embassies. In the early days, they received aid from President Sarkissian's office. The latter gave shelter to 25 families. Today the NGO aims to help refugees with employment, while simultaneously lobbying for Minsk Group to de-occupy Hadrut so residents can return. "I hope that one day our NGO will shut down because Hadrut is no longer occupied," said co-founder Meri Davtyan. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042286.html
govt session: financial aid for Syunik border villagers
The government approved a new aid package for residents of Syunik's Shurnukh and Vorotan villagers. Those who lost their homes will qualify for the same aid package as Artsakh refugees: one-time ֏300K payment plus monthly ֏65K payments for 6 months. There is another pending aid package to build new houses for them. Context: Two dozen houses in Vorotan and Shurnukh went under Azeri control because they were built on the Azeri side of the internationally-recognized borders. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042362.html
bill: disability ranking to be replaced with degrees of functionality impairment
The government approved a bill, yet to be approved by Parliament, to reform the disability system. The disability assessment process will analyze the person's level of functional impairment while taking into account surrounding conditions. "Today, the system is run under a 1993 law that does not do a comprehensive assessment of the surrounding environment, person's ability to function in public life," says the govt. The draft bill will repeal the 1-3 Categories and Disabled Child category. A person's functionality impairment degrees will be light, medium, heavy, or deep. Disability will no longer be considered a permanent health problem. The assessment will be based not only on the factor of health problems but also on the environmental factors of the person's activity and participation in public life. Healthcare and Social Ministries, NGOs, the UN, and the EU worked together to create and test an assessment methodology. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042365.html Tags: #DisabilityLaw #disabled
bill: require unknown Telegram/Facebook media channel owners identified before "linking" by mass media
QP MPs want to require social media channel operators identified before a "mainstream media" can link to them. It doesn't restrict citing "anonymous sources", however. It also requires outlets to disclose sources of revenues for transparency. Read yesterday's news for context and arguments in favor or against it.. The debate continued today. QP MP Arthur: For example, a legitimate news organization with an editorial staff of 30 people generates information, holds interviews, etc., while a Telegram channel that we do not know where it is managed from and by whom, begins to disseminate sensationalized information and over time becomes more "legitimate" than real media outlets because media outlets "advertised" them. This is also a national security risk because it is very possible that such sources are being operated by an adversary country to spread instability and an atmosphere of fear in the country. // The co-author criticized the critics who "claimed that the bill intends to ban anonymous sources. That's not true. This also won't affect the protection of journalists' source secrecy." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042357.html If you're interested in more debates: https://youtu.be/MTHwRa4YjgY , https://youtu.be/ThDNVwZYEp8 , https://youtu.be/S6C_NocS9N0 , https://youtu.be/3_-i2Z23ubI , https://youtu.be/wiPnmfeLNJ8 Tags: #MediaLaw #TelegramLaw #FreeSpeech
rumors and rebuttals: Artsakh army isn't being dissolved
Serj's won-in-law Mishik earlier circulated rumors that were denied by state officials. Today, Kocharyan-ally Vitali Balasanyan, who serves as Artsakh's Security Council chief, confirmed that the army isn't "disintegrating." After the restructuring process, there will be subdivisions with professional contractors, he said. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html
rumors and rebuttals: Azeri flag won't fly over Artsakh govt buildings
rumors and rebuttals: Azeri families won't resettle in Stenapakert / none are shopping in market
Vitalik Balasanyan said there are false rumors about two districts in Stepanakert being populated by Azeris, and Azeris allegedly freely shopping in Stepanakert market. "Dear citizens of Artsakh, on behalf of the authorities of the Artsakh Republic, I assure you that despite the irreparable losses inflicted on us as a result of the war, the state is always committed to fulfilling its responsibilities to ensure the security and normal life of the population. Accordingly, I urge you not to pay attention to the false news. Everything is being done to create and expand the necessary conditions for a dignified life of the people of Artsakh." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html
rumors and rebuttals: Artsakh envoy won't stop operating in Russia
The Permanent Representation of the Artsakh Republic in Russia will not be terminated, said the Artsakh govt in response to rumors. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042367.html
rumors and rebuttals: no single currency in EAEU trade bloc
There is a district called Hollywood in Yerevan, Armenia. Gamblers were caught running an underground casino in there. This is the second such bust in the past few months. The police say ֏5.5B in damages was done to the state. https://youtu.be/sp0Sb--e_ms?t=60 https://factor.am/335320.html
anti-corruption: prosecutors charge education officials with ֏1.2B auction shenanigans
Prosecutors said: State Oversight Committee (SOC) audited the "National Center for Educational Technology" government-affiliated agency's finances between 2013-2020. Every year, the agency submitted a report on the work done by them towards servicing the education system. The bill was ֏700M annually. It was revealed that between 2012-2015, they granted an auction-based contract to the same company. It received a combined ֏2.8B in funding. The law requires the auction-holding officials to examine the market and take other steps before the auction. They failed to do so. Later, during 2017-2019, the same company was selected to do the job, but this time it was only paid ֏300-400M annually, far lower than during the previous years. ֏1.2B in damages was done to the state. A felony case is launched. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042389.html
re: Armenia's $750M eurobond sale / lowest % in history / $3B demand by investors / economy news
Read yesterday's news for context. Pashinyan: The issuance of $750M eurobonds is a strong positive signal for the start of the economic year. The issuance was done under the most favorable conditions in the history of our republic, with the lowest 3.8% percentage rate. Our previous record was in 2019 at 4.2%. The demand was for $3B but we decided to issue only $0.750B. First, it provides a guarantee of macroeconomic stability. Second, this is the first serious signal of overcoming the post-war economic shock, which shows that international investors have confidence in the economic future of Armenia and the policy pursued by the government. // Economy Minister Janjughazyan: this was part of our long-term plan and we had planned to do it while drafting the 2021 budget. We planned to issue fewer bonds but decided to add $250M because of favorable terms. We plan to use that extra cash towards the stabilization deposit, as a safety pad, to be used throughout the year if necessary. As long as our budget has a deficit we will have to borrow. But this is only part of the story; the country's overall debt burden is calculated based on various indicators. So far Armenia has been rated as a country with a lower debt burden. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042351.html, https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042352.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042363.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042393.html
how many people did leave and arrive after reopening air traffic with Russia?
The governments of Armenia and Russian worked on an "app" to allow mutual travel after taking a test. By February 15th, there will be 4-route flights in 2 directions. There were several flights in the past few days. 3900 left and 3400 arrived. 1423 Armenian citizens left and 1263 Armenian citizens arrived. "More people were willing to leave in December than today," noted Diaspora Committee chief Sinanyan. "Some people flew to Russia but had to return due to a problem. This wasn't due to the COVID app implemented by us. Preliminary data shows that they went to Russia with a paper QP code which raised the suspicion of Russian authorities. We will work with them to resolve this," said Deputy PM Mher. (say what??) "We need to better inform the public about the existence of this app. Restoring routine flights will help the tourism industry," said PM Pashinyan. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042358.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042383.html
Pashinyan about the suspended Amulsar gold mining project
He repeated his earlier position that "Decisions must be made that take into account Armenia's best interests." "The mining industry plays a very important role in the development of Armenia's economy, including in the security context." "We must make decisions to make investment programs acceptable for the Armenian public while taking into account interests of Republic of Armenia." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042368.html
COVID stats
1829 tested. 147 infected. 352 healed. 11 deaths. 4637 active. "We're negotiating for vaccines via COVAX global initiative. Separately, we're negotiating with Russia for Sputnik-V. Vaccines should be available in March. It will be targeted at specific groups. It won't be mandatory," said Healthcare Minister Avanesyan. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042341.html , https://youtu.be/vXz3pHx1BlM?t=92
the consumer market price increase in the past 12 months
Armenia's consumer market inflation was +4.5% from January to January. Food +6.4%. Alcohol & tobacco +10.8%. Clothing +2.6%. Utilities +0.6%. Appliances +5.8%. Healthcare +5.6%. Transport +5.7%. Telecom +0.5%. Leisure & culture -0.8%. Education +2%. Dining +1.6%. Misc +3.5%. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042323.html
Parliament MP stops a citizen's suicide attempt
Someone tried to jump from Kievyan bridge. QP MP Gor Gevorgyan was nearby and stopped the attempt. The police took the distressed person to a station. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042329.html
psychological support will be provided to war participants and the public
Emergency Ministry says 15-30% of people have PTSD after the war. Today the government approved a plan to provide psychological aid to war participants and others. The target group includes families of missing people, POWs and their families, those who received disabilities, families of those who died, those who fought in the war, IDPs, civilians who were affected in any way. The program will work in Armenia and Artsakh. The government will purchase services from experienced mental health service agencies. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042403.html
Armenia will grow industrial marijuana on mass industrial scale / incentive to boost land utilization
Hemp is a type of weed that contains less of the substance that makes you feel high. The government wants to grow industrial hemp on a mass scale to boost mood land utilization and revenues. Pashinyan: this is going to open room for many speculations. It's important to present the project in detail so the public will have a full understanding of what is being done. Unfortunately, "hemp" is interpreted as something else, while in reality, it is a very important industrial raw material. The growing process has risks but there are oversight mechanisms that have been tested in many countries. Deputy PM Avinyan: the US, Russia, and China have a great experience with industrial hemp production. The practice was examined by the Economy Ministry. We're talking about industrial production only. It will significantly activate agricultural land utilization. Today, 40% of lands are gone unused. This is part of our plan to boost the production of high-value agricultural products. https://youtu.be/ssZgr2DR3DM?t=7 https://www.healthline.com/health/hemp-vs-marijuana#marijuana https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042372.html
Education Minister says the "controversial" parts of Church/History merger were "resolved"
Education Ministry wants to merge the school subjects "Armenian Church History" and "Armenian History". Critics said it will shrink the church-related materials too much, others called it treason, while others supported the decision, stating that it's all part of our history and having a separate class is inefficient. Education Minister Dumanyan says he met colleagues at the National Academy of Sciences and they resolved the conflicts "that caused a noise earlier." He will reveal details soon. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042379.html , https://youtu.be/V0sC3dx-gzU
Major education reforms: "education alone will not solve all problems, but there is no problem that can be solved without an education"
... said PM Pashinyan during a govt session while discussing education reforms. Kids in 1-5 grades will no longer receive grades; tt will be pass or no pass (still needs Parliamentary approval). "There will be a criticism. How can you not grade? But this is a comprehensive program that emphasizes the student's needs and preferences," said Pashinyan. "We need to pay attention to how the time is spent in schools and what skills are being taught in school hours. It will reflect in our society 15-20 years later. It will define whether we have a technological product or not. What we were doing in 12 years (school length) can be done within 9 years, but a 9-year school isn't the solution. Instead of shortening the school, we're trying to fill the gap in a way to have a 50% higher efficiency by the end of the 12th year. In developed countries, education starts not from school but from preschool. The lower the education entry age the more developed the countries are," said Pashinyan. (the govt has a plan to make sure 70% of kids attend preschools by 2023) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042394.html
cancer stats in Armenia / annual rate / drops among children / fewer abandon treatment
world 9.6 million people die from cancer annually. 1/3rd is possible to prevent. Another part can be cured with the help of early detection. Armenia Cancer was the 2nd leading cause of death in 2020. It has increased in the past 10 years but at a small rate. Lung cancer is more common among men, and breast cancer among women. First time diagnosis by year: 2018 - 8762, 2019 - 7908, 2020 - 7050. Deaths by year: 2018 - 5199, 2019 - 5434. 2020 - unavailable. (55% men, 45% women) The cancer rate went up by 1.5x compared to 1990. However, it declined by 2x among children under 14yo. Fewer people abandon treatment. 3 years ago 53% of lung patients did so, today it's 40%. Breast cancer treatment abandonment went from 47% to 22%. (I translated the word բարձիթողության as "abandonment". Correct me if it refers to something else.) Artsakh The number of cancer cases has decreased in Artsakh: from 345 to 260 YoY. prevention Oncologist Safaryan says the early detection helps to avoid complications and save lives, even if it's the type of cancer that is known to reappear. There are many patients who defeat cancer. "Smokers should get a lung x-ray twice a year. Those working in chemical plants should get a frequent screening. Do not ignore symptoms and չգցել ականջի հետև. You can defeat it more easily when it's at 1-2 stages. It's a lot harder when it advances to 4." Preventing cancer isn't easy. The causes of this disease are many. Genetics, bad habits, obesity, surrounding environment. A genetic test can reveal the likelihood of suffering from illness. Some women choose to undergo a mastectomy to prevent possible breast cancer in the future. "I decided that if 1-in-100 is destined to be cured, I will be that one," said Ashkhen, a woman who recently defeated cancer. More: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042291.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042364.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042405.html
cancer diagnosis, surgery, and radiotherapy are free
The treatment was made free recently. The Oncology Center urges the public to get screened as part of an early-detection initiative. The pilot program began in Vanadzor; 307 women were screened. Cancer diagnosis, surgery, and radiotherapy are free, while the medication has a co-payment. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042423.html
Artsakh president Arayik met donor Alec Baghdasaryan and thanked him. "Only with the joint efforts of the Armenian people is it possible to quickly overcome the difficulties and to plan development programs." Alec plans more charity programs relating to education. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042326.html
Review of Martin Scorsese’s 1995 Casino [A mob movie that has many actors that will go on to be in the Sopranos].
mods please lmk if this violates the rules. i’m posting here because I write about the mob/casino and many relevant themes that are important elements of the Sopranos, in my opinion. I think they’re of the same medium and genre so wanted to post here. Hope that’s alright. Cheers! (11 min read) ———————————————————————— EDIT 2: TL;DR - Casino is a story of sexual and financial intrigue, mob violence, union pension fund embezzlement, a “love” story, and the protagonist's masochist addiction to the pain and chaos his lover inflicts on him. It turns out that the sharp-minded genius who meticulously runs the casino, is no more rational than the gamblers who routinely frequent the casino, coming back to lose their money and hoping that the odds will magically shift in their favor. ———————- Every good filmmaker makes the same movie over and over again—Martin Scorsese is no different Scorsese's Casino is a phenomenal story of the condoned chaos and "legalized robbery" that happens on a daily basis to gamblers who bett away thousands of dollars and return each day for more “FinDom,” but without any of the sexual sadism. The whole scam only persists because the house always wins: the odds are stacked 3 million to one on the slot machines, but the same shmucks return wide-eyed each day hoping for a different outcome, devoid of any rational re-evaluation required to maintain their grasp on reality, and the liquidity of their bank accounts. Casino is a story of sexual and financial intrigue, mob violence, union pension fund embezzlement, a “love” story, and the protagonist's masochist addiction to the pain and chaos his lover inflicts on him. It turns out that the sharp-minded genius who meticulously runs the casino, is no more rational than the gamblers who routinely frequent the casino, coming back to lose their money and hoping that the odds will magically shift in their favor. Robert De Niro plays Sam "Ace" Rothstein, recruited by his childhood friend Nick "Nicky" Santorno to help run the Tangiers casino, which is funded by an investment made with the Teamsters’ pension fund. Ace’s job is to keep the bottom line flowing so that the Mafia's skimming operation can continue seamlessly. De Niro's character felt like half-way between Travis from Taxi Driver (of course, nowhere as mentally disturbed) and half of the addictive excess, greed, and eccentric business-mind of Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street. Ace’s attention to detail gives him a rain-man-esque sensibility; his ability to see every scam, trick, hand signal, and maneuver happening on the casino floor make him the perfect manager of the casino, and take his managerial style to authoritarian heights in his pursuit of order and control over what is an inherently unstable and dynamic scheme; betting, hedging outcomes, and walking the line to keep the money flowing and the gamblers coming back. I’m not claiming Ace is autistic, I'm no clinician, but his managerial sensibilities over the daily operations of the casino, from the dealers to the pit bosses, to the shift managers, are to the point of disturbing precision, he has eyes everywhere, and knows how to remove belligerent customers with class and professionalism, but ultimately is short sighted in “reading” the human beings he is in relationship with. Ace is frustratingly naive and gullible in his partnership with Nicky and the threat he poses to him, and in his marriage with Ginger. Ace has no personal aspirations to extract millions of dollars for himself out of the casino corruption venture. Ace simply wants the casino to operate as efficiently as possible, and he has no qualms about being a pawn of the bosses. While Sam, “the Golden Jew”—as he is called—is the real CEO of the whole enterprise, directing things at Tangiers for the benefit of the bosses “back home.” Ace’s compliance is juxtaposed with Nicky’s outrage upon feeling used: he gripes about how he is in “the trenches” while the bosses sit back and do nothing. Note that none of the activity Nicky engages in outside of the casino—doing the work of “taking Las Vegas over”—is authorized by the bosses. Ultimately Nicky’s inability to exert control over his crew and the street lead to his demise. In the end, capitalism, and all that happens in the confines of the casino, is nothing but “organized violence.” Sound familiar? The mob has a capitalist structure in its organization and hierarchy: muscle men collect and send money back to the bosses who do not labor tirelessly “in the trenches.” The labor of the collectors is exploited to create the profits of their bosses. The entire business-model of the Mafia is predicated on usury and debtors defaulting on loans for which the repayment is only guaranteed by the threat of violence. But this dynamic is not without its internal contradictions and tensions, as seen in Casino. In a comedic turn, the skimmers get skimmed! The bosses begin to notice the thinning of the envelopes and lighter and lighter suitcases being brought from the casino to Kansas City, “back home”. The situation continues to spin out of control, but a mid-tier mafioso articulates the careful balance required for the skimming operation to carry on: to keep the skimming operation functioning, the skimmers need to be kept loyal and happy. It’s a price the bosses have to pay to maintain the operation, “leakage” in their terms. Ace’s efficient management and precision in maintaining order within Tangiers is crucial for the money to keep flowing. But Ace’s control over the casino slips more and more as the movie progresses. We see this as the direct result of Nicky’s ascendance as mob kingpin in Vegas, the chaos he creates cannot be contained and disrupts the profits and delicate dynamics that keep the scam running. Of course I can’t help myself here! We should view Scorsese’s discography, and the many portrayals of capitalist excess not as celebratory fetishization, but a critique of the greed and violence he so masterfully captures on film. See the Wolf of Wall Street for its tale of money as the most dangerous drug of them all, and the alienation—social and political—showcased in Taxi Driver. Scorsese uses the mob as a foil to the casino to attack the supposed monopoly the casino holds on legitimate, legal economic activity that rests on institutionalized theft. When juxtaposed with the logic of organized crime, we begin to see that the two—Ace and Nick—are not so different after all. The only dividing line between the casino and organized crime is the law. Vegas is a lawless town yes, “the Wild West” as Nicky puts it, but there are laws in Vegas. The corruption of the political establishment and ruling elites is demonstrated when they pressure Ace to re-hire an incompetent employee who he fired for his complicity in a cheating scam or his stupidity in letting the slot machines get rigged; nepotism breeds mediocrity. In the end, Ace’s fall is the result of the rent-seeking behavior that the Vegas ruling class wields to influence the gaming board to not even permit Ace a fair hearing for his gaming license, which would’ve given him the lawful authority to officially run Tangiers. The elites use the political apparatus of the State to resist the new gang in town, the warring faction of mob-affiliated casino capitalists. While the mob’s only weapon to employ is that of violence. The mafia is still subservient to the powers that be within the political and economic establishment of Vegas, and they’re told “this is not your town.” I’d like to make the most salient claim of this entire review now. Casino is a western film. The frontier of the Wild West is Vegas in this case, where the disorder of the mob wreaks havoc on, an until then, an “untapped market.” The investment scheme that the Teamsters pension fund is exploited for as seed capital, is an attempt to remain in the confines of the law while extracting as much value as possible through illegal and corrupt means for the capitalist class of the mob (and the ultimately dispensable union president). Tangiers exists in the liminal space of condoned economic activity as a legal and otherwise standard casino. While the violence required to maintain the operation, corrupts the legal legitimacy it never fully enjoyed from the beginning. This mirrors the bounty economy of the West and the out-sourcing of the law and the execution of the law, to bounty hunters. There is no real authority out in the frontier, the killer outlaw on the run is not so different from the bounty hunter who enjoys his livelihood by hunting down the killers. Yet, he himself is not the State. The wide-lens frame of Ace and Nicky meeting in the desert felt like a direct homage to the iconic image of the Western standoff. The conflict between Ace and Nick, the enforcer and the mastermind, is an approximation of the conflicts we might see in John Wayne’s films. The casino venture itself could be seen as an analogy of the frontier-venturism of railroad pioneers going to lay track to develop the West into a more industrial region. I would have believed that this was a documentary about how the mob took over control of the Vegas casinos in the 1970-80s … if it were not for the viewer being expected to believe that Robert De Niro could play a Jew; it's hard to believe a man with that accent and the roles he’s played his entire career could be a “CRAZY JEW FUCK!!” I kid! But alas, De Niro is a class act and the last of the many greats of a bygone era. At times, it felt like Joe Pesci lacked talent as an actor, but his portrayal of the scummy, backstabbing bastard in Nicky was genuinely remarkable, but I might consider his performance the weak point of the movie. It’s weird to see a man that short, be that much of physical menace. There are a number of Sopranos actors in Casino. I’m sure Vincent Chase watched the movie and said to himself, “bet, i’ll cast half of these guys.”The set design and costumes were gorgeous. The styles and fashion of the time were spectacular. Scorsese’s signature gratuitous violence featured prominently, but tastefully. The camera work, tracking shots through the casino and spatial movement was incredible and I thought the cinematography was outstanding, the Western-esque wide lens in the desert was worthy of being a framed still. The Nicky//Ace dynamic is excellent and the two play off of each other well. The conflict between the two of them escalates gradually, and then Nicky’s betrayal of Ace by cheating with Ginger marks the final break between the two of them. Nicky’s mob faculties represent a brutal, violent theft that is illegal and requires the enforcement of violence by organized crime. Despite the illegal embezzlement and corruption at play with the “skimming” operation at work at the casino, the general business model of the casino stands in contrast to the obscene violence of the loan sharks. Ace operates an intelligent operation of theft through the casino, and his hands-on management approach is instrumental to the success of the casino. Nicky’s chaos pervades the casino, and the life and activities of “the street” begin to bleed into Ace’s ability to maintain order in the casino. “Connected” types begin frequenting the casino, and Ace unknowingly forces one particularly rude gambler to leave the casino, who happens to have mob ties with Nicky. The “organized violence” of the casino cannot stay intact perfectly, because the very thing holding it together is the presence of the mob. Nicky is in Vegas as the enforcer and tasked with protecting Ace but his independent, entrepreneurial (shall we call them?) aspirations lead him to attempt to overtake what he realizes is a frontier for organized crime to brutalize and exploit the characters of “the street” (pimps, players, addicts, dealers, and prostitutes) and the owners of small private businesses. Nicky is reckless, “when i plant my flag out here you won’t need your [casino/gaming] license” Nicky thinks he, and Ace, can bypass the regulations and bureaucratic legal measures by sheer force of violence alone. But ultimately Nicky is shortsighted and doesn’t have a real attachment to the success of the casino. After all, he isn’t getting profits from it (or much anyway) and isn’t permitted to play a real, active role in its daily functions because of his belligerent, untamed personality. Nicky has no buy-in that would motivate him to follow the rules or to work within the legal parts of the economy, it’s not the game he knows how to play, and win. All that he is loyal to, or deferent too, is the bosses back home; for whom he maintains absolute, uncompromising loyalty to, but still holds intense spite for. And now to the more compelling element of the narrative. Sam “Ace” Rothstein is positioned as remarkably intelligent, he makes informed decisions that aid in his skill as a gambler, he can read people to determine whether he’s being conned, he has an attention to detail—aided by the casino’s surveillance apparatus which monitors cheating—that is almost unbelievable. Ace knows when he’s being cheated, he knows how to rig the game so that the house always wins, enacting psychological warfare to break down the confidence of would be proficient gamblers, who could threaten Tangiers’ bottom line. But in the end, the greatest gamble Ace makes is his marriage to Ginger. Ginger is the seductive, charismatic, and flirtatious madame who makes her money with tricks and her sexual power. Ginger works as a prostitute, seducing men, and extracting everything she can, almost as a sort of sexual-financial vampirism. Ginger is the bad bet Ace can’t stop making even when she destroys his life, her own, and puts their daughter Amy in harm’s way. Ginger is the gamble Ace made wrong, but he keeps going back to her every time, trying to rationalize how she might change and be different the next time. Ace is not a victim to Ginger’s antics. Ginger makes it clear who she is: an addict, alcoholic, manic shopaholic who will use all of her powers to extract everything she can from everyone around her. She uses everyone to her advantage and manipulates men with her sexual power in exchange for their money and protection. Ginger had a price for her hand in marriage: $1 million in cash and $1 million worth of jewelry that are left to her and her alone as a sort of emergency fund. Ace’s numerous attempts to buy Ginger’s love—and the clear fact that no matter how expensive the fur coat and how grand the mansion, none of it would ever be enough to satisfy her—mirrored Jordan Belfort’s relationship with Naomi in The Wolf of Wall Street. Both relationships carried the same manic volatility and conflict over child custody was found in both films, with the roles reversed in the respective films. Ginger may be irredeemable and a pathological liar, but Ace can’t claim that she wasn’t clear with him; when he asked her to marry him, Ginger said she didn’t love Ace. Ace replied that love could be “developed” but required a foundation of trust to develop. That trust was never there to begin with. The love was doomed from the start to destroy the two of them; two addicts, two gamblers, lying on a daily basis to one another and themselves about reality to justify their respective existences, the marriage, and Ace’s livelihood. And as Ginger pointed out, “I should have never married him. He’s a gemini, a triple gemini … a snake” Maybe astrology has some truth to it after all. Now I’m not licensed (but hey neither was Ace, and he ran a casino empire!), but Ginger has the inklings of a borderline personality: her manic depression, narcissism, drug and alcohol abuse, and constant begging for forgiveness all seem indications of a larger psychological disorder at play. In the end, Ginger runs away with all the money Ace left her and finds her people in Los Angeles, the pimps, whores, and addicts she fits in with, in turn exploit and kill her for 3 grand in mint coins by giving her a ‘hot’ dose. Overall, Casino is an incredible cinematic experience. I highly recommend watching this and seeing it as part of Scorsese's anthology of commentary on our economic system and its human victims. I’d argue that Casino, Wolf of Wall Street, and The Irishman all fit together nicely into a trilogy of the Scorsesean history of finance and corruption from the 70s to the 90s. ————- EDIT 2: TL;DR — Casino is a story of sexual and financial intrigue, mob violence, union pension fund embezzlement, a “love” story, and the protagonist's masochist addiction to the pain and chaos his lover inflicts on him. It turns out that the sharp-minded genius who meticulously runs the casino, is no more rational than the gamblers who routinely frequent the casino, coming back to lose their money and hoping that the odds will magically shift in their favor.
The January 15th official short interest report stated 61,780,000 shares had been sold short. On the 15th, the share price was about $35. This is a crucial piece of information to consider. Short Interest is reported twice monthly, so the last report before January 15th was from December 31st, and the next was issued today February 9th, revealing a (still) staggering 78.46% short interest. Keep in mind, this report only shows short interest up to January 29th. Lets go back to the January 15th report which told us that 61.78 million shares had been shorted at prices less than $35. In other words, every single short of those 61.78 million was betting the price would be less than $35, and it's more likely that most were shorted around the $15 - $20 mark. We do not know the exact numbers. But what we do know is some of these shorts closed out of their positions before, that is evident by the SI report we received today. We can also draw another inference from this data: MOSTshort positions from the January 15th report have NOT covered yet. Today's report confirmed this speculation. The hedge funds and other players were able to drive the price down from $483 to $65 in less than a week. Regardless of the illegal actions they took to make this happen. They knew they would be able to do this. It didn't even take that long. So why in the world would they have covered even a single share above $100?? It is my belief that only the shorts who lacked liquidity and spare capital to pay interest were margin called, or chose to bow out early. Today's report all but confirms this theory. If you need more evidence, look at the overall market bleed that took place on the days right before the cut-off date for this report. What does that mean for the big players? The ones who actually have capital to sustain high interest rates and play the long game to mitigate losses? They are waiting to bring the price down to an acceptable level, buying far OTM calls, and letting the hype die down a bit before they even begin to cover. The current drop in price has been working in the favor of hedges in three different ways. First, calls far OTM are very cheap, and hedge funds are able to scoop up millions of dollars worth of options that they will later be able to sell or execute for profit. During the first peak, the furthest OTM call available were too expensive and to NTM for hedges to offset their losses. If my theory is correct, hedges stand to gain substantially on their far OTM calls expiring Feb. 19th. Second, the extreme price drop means there are tons of shares available for hedges to short now. During the last rise, there were nowhere near enough shares for hedges to short as the price dipped. Finally, it is obvious that shorts are better off covering at $50 rather than $480. They have effectively weeded out a large number of paper hands and profiteers. But that is neither here nor there, as we still control a substantial portion of the float, keeping sustained pressure on the shorts. Furthering my hypothesis, I do not believe Citadel gave 2.75b to Melvin to flush down the toilet. They are expecting Melvin to mitigate as much of their losses as possible. How might they do this? First, check the amount of money placed on 800c for 2/19. Obviously a portion of this money can be accounted for by retail traders caught up in the media bubble two weeks ago hoping to cash-in on the squeeze. Alternatively, I believe a large magnitude of the calls may have been strategically planted by hedges who had very low short positions, i.e. ~$35, and did not plan on covering during the first massive peak. Why not? Because now they have the opportunity, (FLUSH with 2.75B in cash for Melvin), to do some serious damage control. Would a professional gambler pay off his debt with a loan, or would he use it to cut his losses before repaying his loan? Now we know atleast 78% of the shorts ~$35 DID NOT account for the massive price increase. If give/take 40% of the shorts who did actually exit their positions before 1/29 attributed to the $483 price spike, IMAGINE what 78% can obtain. ALSO, while it is certainly possible that a decent chunk of this 78% have slowly been exiting their positions since 1/29, we also know that a large number of greedy bastards have been taking their place at higher price points >100, > 200, >300. While these positions are extremely profitable at this time (i.e. some hedges mitigating losses, while some reap ginormous gains after watching on the sidelines until the 29th), the low entry ~$35 shorts will eventually have to cover their losses. This will trigger a domino effect by inevitably applying upwards pressure on the new, high entry shorts, who will see the tidal wave coming and immediately take their profits (or maximum mitigated losses) and get the fuck out of dodge while they still can. TLDR: The most logical way to cut losses (while simultaneously accruing massive interest on current positions) would be by attempting to short the stock the whole way down from the top of the media bubble then finally closing out the terrible ~$35 short positions after driving the price down as far as possible, knowing that the price will skyrocket back up after they cover now they can cash in another fat chunk of change on the 800c 2/19 then short the whole thing back down again. At the end of the day, I have no clue how much they would net in losses, because that is contingent on the accrual of interest and which is directly associated with the price price point they actually have shorts located at (only they know this). In any case, this chain of events is the most logical way for a billion dollar entity to mitigate losses on a failed bet. Again, I want to reiterate, WHY would a hedgefund loan $2.75B to another hedgefund if they had not run countless simulations in order to determine the best possible outcomes? Disclaimer: This is my personal hypothesis based on the facts provided to us. This should not be construed as financial advice. I'm just a law student who likes money, video games, and stonks.
The 3 types AMC holders (IMHO- long read to kill time)
TL:DR - Ignore hype, choose YOUR strategy, and stick to it. All money matters are a gamble. New to the market, but paying attention to WS and learning for a couple years before finally jumping in. After now being a every-minute watcher on the market, the Reddit “movement”impact, and MSM reactions for a month, I’ve come to the conclusion that there are 3 types of AMC holders:
The Get Rich Quick holder- this is the smoothest of smooth brains that have wandered in and have unrealistic expectations of AMC’s potential. They heard from MSM and “a buddy who knows” that something BIG(!) was happening with GME, and guys sitting in their mom’s basement were making life changing money on this “sure thing”. The GRQ checked WSB and was encouraged by DFV screens daily, laughed at all the big swinging dick fratboy talk and memes. “Wow! This looks like fun!” Says GRQ, but GME is already too cost prohibitive for them, so they YOLO into AMC. “$20 is amazing! This thing is gonna explode with the squeeze and be worth $1000 a share, and imma be rich by Friday!” GRQ hasn’t done ANY DD, because emoji posting, Jordan Belfort, and LOTR memes are all the GRQ needs to hold until the inevitable squeeze on AMC happens. The GRQ thinks XXX% increases are easy to capture, the HF’s are on their heels, and everything is being manipulated- otherwise they’d already be rich. Short interest metrics give the GRQ a chubby.
Why GRQ is GOOD: Fresh money and exposure in market trading, lots of entertainment. Some GRQ’s will educate themselves into better investors long term. Why GRQ is BAD: Increased volatility, misinformation spreading, paper hands. These folks will lose interest quickly, and may incur life crippling debt by trading with money they can’t afford to lose.
The Safe Gambler Noob - (full disclaimer: this is currently me). The SGN is more diligent, more careful, but not necessarily smart. They also likely wandered into AMC based on the WSB hype. They know some about WS and “the way things work”, but just enough to be careful. The SGN is reading EVERY bit of information about AMC, taking on a 60/40 split of bullshit to actual DD. They likely only bought in with a small amount around 14-16. Their rationale is “hey, look at what happened with GME- I guess it’s possible that AMC can get $100 or more, and at the very least, it’ll go up after the pandemic, so there’s really no risk”. The SGN is rife with FOMO, but balanced enough not to YOLO. They understand that HF’s have the power to do whatever they want, but also think “maybe what Redditors are doing is changing the game” (spoiler alert, probably not). Any positive mention of their positions or a “green day” gives the SGN a chubby.
Why the SGN is GOOD: like the GRQ, it’s bringing more folks into the market who might still be on the sidelines. If the SGN doesn’t at least get their initial investment back, they’ll bag hold to the grave. Some will educate and make smarter plays moving forward, having dipped their toe in the ocean and liking the temperature. Why the SGN is BAD: They’ve already lost half their money, and may be hesitant to get deeper in or take any other positions. Lots of SGN’s will sell at the break even point (however long that may take) and never trade again, having taken the only beating they need to be scared away. Some reckless SGN’s falsely believe they have found a secret method or opportunity to “beat the system” because they got the first brain wrinkle.
The Long Term Pro: Raisin Brains. These are the DFV’s of the world. As soon as the price of AMC tanked due to the pandemic, they had the foresight to get in at the low (if they believed AMC would survive) or buy the shorts (if they believed AMC would bankrupt). The LTP blocks out the “noise” of the Reddit hype, because they trust their own analysis more than anything they hear or read. There is very little risk for them with their AMC position, because they have a well diversified portfolio spread between stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and other safe savings plans. They likely only check the tickers when they want to “check in”, but aren’t swayed by any fluctuations. They likely have someone else professionally managing their portfolio. Even a market crash can’t phase the LTP, because they can afford to hold and ride it out until it comes back. They get chubbies whenever they want, because they’ve earned that right.
Why the LTP’s are GOOD: This is arguably the type of investor we all should try to be. Some LTP’s enjoy offering DD and education to the SGN’s, passing on and elevating overall market knowledge. Lots of them are still entrenched in their AMC positions, and will be for 4-5 years. Why LTP’s are BAD: They completely ignore the GRQ’s as foolish, and stay away from ANY volatility. Most LTP’s that didn’t sell their AMC shares during the first Reddit hype peak, certainly did when the new offering dilution was announced. EVERY HF insider is an LTP, and knows how to make money in any market condition. These guys are very definition of “Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered”. My only point in this post (other than a “gut check” for myself and maybe others), is that ALL matters concerning money is a risk/reward scenario. Even if you are putting money under your mattress, that money is constantly gaining or losing value. Anyone trading or investing should appreciate this, decide what your own strategy should be, and see it through. Me personally, I’m striving for the DD of the LTP, the excitement of the SGN, and the stones of a GRQ. On yeah, and Hold AMC. 😁
The January 15th official short interest report stated 61,780,000 shares had been sold short. On the 15th, the share price was about $35. This is a crucial piece of information to consider. Short Interest is reported twice monthly, so the last report before January 15th was from December 31st, and the next was issued today February 9th, revealing a (still) staggering 78.46% short interest. Keep in mind, this report only shows short interest up to January 29th. Lets go back to the January 15th report which told us that 61.78 million shares had been shorted at prices less than $35. In other words, every single short of those 61.78 million was betting the price would be less than $35, and it's more likely that most were shorted around the $15 - $20 mark. We do not know the exact numbers. But what we do know is some of these shorts closed out of their positions before, that is evident by the SI report we received today. We can also draw another inference from this data: MOSTshort positions from the January 15th report have NOT covered yet. Today's report confirmed this speculation. The hedge funds and other players were able to drive the price down from $483 to $65 in less than a week. Regardless of the illegal actions they took to make this happen. They knew they would be able to do this. It didn't even take that long. So why in the world would they have covered even a single share above $100?? It is my belief that only the shorts who lacked liquidity and spare capital to pay interest were margin called, or chose to bow out early. Today's report all but confirms this theory. If you need more evidence, look at the overall market bleed that took place on the days right before the cut-off date for this report. What does that mean for the big players? The ones who actually have capital to sustain high interest rates and play the long game to mitigate losses? They are waiting to bring the price down to an acceptable level, buying far OTM calls, and letting the hype die down a bit before they even begin to cover. The current drop in price has been working in the favor of hedges in three different ways. First, calls far OTM are very cheap, and hedge funds are able to scoop up millions of dollars worth of options that they will later be able to sell or execute for profit. During the first peak, the furthest OTM call available were too expensive and to NTM for hedges to offset their losses. If my theory is correct, hedges stand to gain substantially on their far OTM calls expiring Feb. 19th. Second, the extreme price drop means there are tons of shares available for hedges to short now. During the last rise, there were nowhere near enough shares for hedges to short as the price dipped. Finally, it is obvious that shorts are better off covering at $50 rather than $480. They have effectively weeded out a large number of paper hands and profiteers. But that is neither here nor there, as we still control a substantial portion of the float, keeping sustained pressure on the shorts. Furthering my hypothesis, I do not believe Citadel gave 2.75b to Melvin to flush down the toilet. They are expecting Melvin to mitigate as much of their losses as possible. How might they do this? First, check the amount of money placed on 800c for 2/19. Obviously a portion of this money can be accounted for by retail traders caught up in the media bubble two weeks ago hoping to cash-in on the squeeze. Alternatively, I believe a large magnitude of the calls may have been strategically planted by hedges who had very low short positions, i.e. ~$35, and did not plan on covering during the first massive peak. Why not? Because now they have the opportunity, (FLUSH with 2.75B in cash for Melvin), to do some serious damage control. Would a professional gambler pay off his debt with a loan, or would he use it to cut his losses before repaying his loan? Now we know atleast 78% of the shorts ~$35 DID NOT account for the massive price increase. If give/take 40% of the shorts who did actually exit their positions before 1/29 attributed to the $483 price spike, IMAGINE what 78% can obtain. ALSO, while it is certainly possible that a decent chunk of this 78% have slowly been exiting their positions since 1/29, we also know that a large number of greedy bastards have been taking their place at higher price points >100, > 200, >300. While these positions are extremely profitable at this time (i.e. some hedges mitigating losses, while some reap ginormous gains after watching on the sidelines until the 29th), the low entry ~$35 shorts will eventually have to cover their losses. This will trigger a domino effect by inevitably applying upwards pressure on the new, high entry shorts, who will see the tidal wave coming and immediately take their profits (or maximum mitigated losses) and get the fuck out of dodge while they still can. TLDR: The most logical way to cut losses (while simultaneously accruing massive interest on current positions) would be by attempting to short the stock the whole way down from the top of the media bubble then finally closing out the terrible ~$35 short positions after driving the price down as far as possible, knowing that the price will skyrocket back up after they cover now they can cash in another fat chunk of change on the 800c 2/19 then short the whole thing back down again. At the end of the day, I have no clue how much they would net in losses, because that is contingent on the accrual of interest and which is directly associated with the price price point they actually have shorts located at (only they know this). In any case, this chain of events is the most logical way for a billion dollar entity to mitigate losses on a failed bet. Again, I want to reiterate, WHY would a hedgefund loan $2.75B to another hedgefund if they had not run countless simulations in order to determine the best possible outcomes? Disclaimer: This is my personal hypothesis based on the facts provided to us. This should not be construed as financial advice. I'm just a law student who likes money, video games, and stonks.
First Post (long) - Asking for advice / Hoping to get it off my chest
Hi all, please bear with me because this may be long. This is a new account for this thread. Today is my first day reading this thread and reflecting on myself after ~5 weeks of consistent chasing sports betting losses. I just turned 25 and have lost just about all $ I've been able to save throughout the pandemic. While peers are out taking advantage of lower prices from airlines and traveling (not necessarily the healthiest move), my goal was to save as much money as possible throughout the pandemic to be able to do what I please after the restrictions are lifted. I prefer to bet on college basketball, and since the season started, I had been consistently winning anywhere from $50-$500 a week, betting with $50 units. After ~7 or 9 weeks, I became extremely greedy. I am terrible at sticking to my rules, though, and always end up taking dumb-ass bets from some tout on twitter who's hot, or just some pick my buddy likes, or whatever may have you. I am a compulsive gambler. The person who says 'don't gamble what you don't want to lose', that was not me. I would rationalize with myself that I always had another way of finding the $ if it didn't hit, or rationalize that I can always ask for more credit, etc. A little about me, I studied finance in college and have always had sub-par savings/spending habits. I have no credit card debt (for now, not likely that will remain) and a great credit score, I had just always been a bit spend-happy on items I don't need. I have been working under an investment advisor for a bit now, and ironically I haven't been able to utilize an ounce of what I've learned when it comes to gambling. I've sat and watched friends and folks online make so much money trading stocks - I'm not allowed to do this stuff because our personal accounts are monitored for work - something I feel I'd be very skilled with because of what I study for work. This is where my problem began and I started to develop a nasty case of FOMO - and a feeling that the universe for some reason owes me something. I started to unbelievably feel like my "big win" was coming and I just had to keep putting the money up(becuase I had been winning deceently for a bit). This is where my biggest problem is as far as coping stems.. I can't get over the disconnect between my personal life and professional(work) life. "Who the hell would take investment advise from someone who compulsively gambled savings away?" I keep saying over and very to myself. I had added rigorously to an investment account over the past year, that is now completely depleted and sent to my bookie. The past two weeks I have slowly realized the mistakes I've made, and today is my "Day 1" if you will. I've got more credit, but instead just telling the bookie to change my password and close my account. My main issue is that I can't get over the fact that I blew such a large amount (relative to me), and I just don't know where to start. I guess I just want to say thank you to anyone who may have read this, but mainly, any advice on where to start and how to change my mindset. The 'getting yourself back to where you were' is less of a challenge for me. I've helped folks in similar situations with credit card debt through my career - it's the toll that this is taking on my relationship with clients, my girlfriend, my bosses, etc. It has put serious harm on my mindset, confidence, demeanor, everything. I've even been eating less, workout less, mental health diminishing. Just need help on how to even begin with it.. IMPORTANT: I do not want to come off as though my problems are worse/more important than anyoen elses. This is just a very hard situation to grasp. Edit: I didn't put the amount. In the past ~5 weeks I went from up ~2k (on the year)to down ~12k - essentially all of my savings.
Casual Reader, 'Gah, Kvothe is suchhh a Mary Sue' Old Knower, '...No he's not. And I got the receipts to prove it' [Brings Up This Thread]
Lol. I'm not spending anymore seconds on this sub putting in effort to search up and then provide the quotes for casuals who think Kvothe is a Mary Sue. Here are the receipts, immortalized. I'm just going to refer them to this thread from now on. [Adem Signs Entreaty] Please do the same. Kvothe=Hero of a Greek Tragedy. In Greek tragedies, the heroes are almost supernaturally gifted, but brought to failure/humility by their inability to overcome their character flaws, their decisions, their lack of wisdom. His mentor's thoughts on him:
Ben took a deep breath and tried again. "Suppose you have a thoughtless six-year-old. What harm can he do?" I paused, unsure what sort of answer he wanted. Straightforward would probably be best. "Not much." "Suppose he's twenty, and still thoughtless, how dangerous is he?" I decided to stick with the obvious answers. "Still not much, but more than before." "What if you give him a sword?" Realization started to dawn on me, and I closed my eyes. "More, much more. I understand, Ben. Really I do. Power is okay, and stupidity is usually harmless. Power and stupidity together are dangerous." "I never said stupid," Ben corrected me. "You're clever. We both know that. But you can be thoughtless. A clever, thoughtless person is one of the most terrifying things there is. Worse, I've been teaching you some dangerous things."
...Is this your Kingkiller? (Note: I will be parodying a specific half a minute of dialogue from the movie Black Panther throughout my post, which you can find to the exact timestamp at this URL: https://youtu.be/uZMoFMGM48o?t=180 )
Kvothe constantly fucks himself over through his character flaws. Here's some of the Stupid, thoughtless shit he does throughout the series despite his cleverness:
I drew in a deep breath and spoke the words to bind the air in my lungs to the air outside. I fixed the Alar firmly in my mind, put my thumb and forefinger in front of my pursed lips, and blew between them. There was a light puff of wind at my back that tousled my hair and caused the tarpaulin covering the wagon to pull taut for a moment. It might have been nothing more than a coincidence, but nevertheless, I felt an exultant smile overflow my face. For a second I did nothing but grin like a maniac at Ben, his face dull with disbelief. Then I felt something squeeze my chest, as if I was deep underwater. I tried to draw a breath but couldn't. Mildly confused, I kept trying. It felt as if I'd just fallen flat on my back and had the air driven from me. All in a rush I realized what I had done. My body exploded into a cold sweat and I grabbed frantically at Ben's shirt, pointing at my chest, my neck, my open mouth. Ben's face turned from shocked to ashen as he looked at me. I realized how still everything was. Not a blade of grass was stirring. Even the sound of the wagon seemed muted, as if far off in the distance. Terror screamed through my mind, drowning out any thought. I began to claw at my throat, ripping my shirt open. My heart thundered through the ringing in my ears. Pain stabbed through my straining chest as I gaped for air. Moving more quickly than I had ever seen before, Ben grabbed me by the tatters of my shirt and sprang from the seat of the wagon. Landing in the grass by the side of the road, he dashed me to the ground with such a force that, if I'd had any air in my lungs, it would have been driven out of me. Tears streaked my face as I thrashed blindly. I knew that I was going to die. My eyes felt hot and red. I raked madly at the earth with hands that were numb and cold as ice. In hindsight, what I had done was glaringly stupid. When I bound my breath to the air outside, it made it impossible for me to breathe. My lungs weren't strong enough to move that much air. I would have needed a chest like an iron bellows. I would have had as much luck trying to drink a river or lift a mountain.
[Killmonger Voice]Is this your Mary-Sue?
Starting the beef with Ambrose in his rush to get into the Archives as soon as possible...only to get indefinitely banned from it:
"I've just gone through admissions—" He tossed up his hands, exasperated. "Then of course you're not in the book." I dug into a pocket for my admission slip. "Master Lorren gave me this himself." "I don't care if he carried you here pig-a-back," Ambrose said, pointedly redipping his pen. "Now quit wasting my time. I have things to do." "Wasting your time?" I demanded, my temper finally wearing thin. "Do you have any idea what I've gone through to get here?" Ambrose looked up at me, his expression growing suddenly amused. "Wait, let me guess," he said, laying his hands flat on the table and pushing himself to his feet. "You were always smarter than the other children back in Clodhump, or whatever little one-whore town you're from. Your ability to read and count left the local villagers awestruck." I heard the outer door open and shut behind me, but Ambrose didn't pay it any attention as he walked around to lean against the front of the desk. "Your parents knew you were special so they saved up for a couple years, bought you a pair of shoes, and sewed the pig blanket into a shirt." He reached out to rub the fabric of my new clothes between his fingers. "It took months of walking, hundreds of miles bumping along in the backs of mule carts. But in the end . . ." He made an expansive gesture with both hands. "Praise Tehlu and all his angels! Here you are! All bright-eyed and full of dreams!" Nahlrout was less powerful than these, but much safer. It was a mild anesthetic, a stimulant, and a vascular constrictor, which is why I hadn't bled like a stuck pig when they'd whipped me. Best of all, it had no major side effects. Still, there is always a price to be paid. Once nahlrout wears off, it leaves you physically and mentally exhausted. Regardless, I had come here to see the stacks. I was now a member of the Arcanum and I didn't intend to leave until I'd been inside the Archives. I turned back to the desk, my expression resolute. Ambrose gave me a long, calculating look before heaving a sigh. "Fine," he said. "How about a deal? You keep quiet about what you saw here today, and I'll bend the rules and let you in even though you aren't officially in the book." He looked a little nervous. "How does that sound?" Even as he spoke I could feel the stimulant effect from the nahlrout fading. My body felt heavy and tired, my thoughts grew sluggish and syrupy. I reached up to rub at my face with my hands, and winced as the motion tugged sharply at the stitches all across my back. "That'll be fine," I said thickly. Ambrose opened up one of the ledger books and sighed as he turned the pages. "Since this is your first time in the Archives proper, you'll have to pay the stack fee." My mouth tasted strangely of lemons. That was a side effect Ben had never mentioned. It was distracting, and after a moment I saw that Ambrose was looking up at me expectantly. "What?" He gave me a strange look. "The stack fee." "There wasn't any fee before," I said. "When I was in the Tomes." Ambrose looked up at me as if I were an idiot. "That's because it's the stack fee." He looked back down at the ledger. "Normally you pay it in addition to your first term's Arcanum tuition. But since you've jumped rank on us, you'll need to tend to it now." "How much is it?" I asked, feeling for my purse. "One talent," he said. "And you do have to pay before you can go in. Rules are Rules." After paying for my bunk in Mews, a talent was nearly all my remaining money. I was keenly aware of the fact that I needed to hoard my resources to save for next term's tuition. As soon as I couldn't pay, I would have to leave the University. Still, it was a small price to pay for something I'd dreamed about for most of my life. I pulled a talent out of my purse and handed it over. "Do I need to sign in?" "Nothing so formal as that," Ambrose said as he opened a drawer and pulled out a small metal disk. Stupefied from the side effects of the nahlrout, it took me a moment to recognize it for what it was: a handheld sympathy lamp. "The Stacks aren't lit," Ambrose said matter-of-factly. "There's too much space in there, and it would be bad for the books in the long term. Hand lamps cost a talent and a half." I hesitated. Ambrose nodded to himself and looked thoughtful. "A lot of folk end up strapped during first term." He reached down into a lower drawer and rooted around for a long moment. "Hand lamps are a talent and half, and there's nothing I can do about that." He brought out a four-inch taper. "But candles are just a ha'penny." Ha'penny for a candle was a remarkably good deal. I brought out a penny. "I'll take two." "This is our last one," Ambrose said quickly. He looked around nervously before pushing it into my hand. "Tell you what. You can have it for free." He smiled. "Just don't tell anyone. It'll be our little secret." I took the candle, more than a little surprised. Apparently I'd frightened him with my idle threat earlier. Either that or this rude, pompous noble's son wasn't half the bastard I'd taken him for. Ambrose hurried me into the stacks as quickly as possible, leaving me no time to light my candle. The red light swelled and I saw two scrivs turn a corner. They paused, then one of them bolted to where I stood and snatched my candle away, spilling hot wax on my hand in the process of extinguishing it. His expression couldn't have been more horrified if he had found me carrying a freshly severed head. "What are you doing with an open flame in here?" he demanded in the loudest whisper I had ever heard. He lowered his voice and waved the now extinguished candle at me. "Charred body of God, what's the matter with you?" I rubbed at the hot wax on the back of my hand. Trying to think clearly through the fog of pain and exhaustion. Of course, I thought, remembering Ambrose's smile as he pressed the candle into my hands and hurried me though the door. "Our little secret. " Of course. I should have known. One of the scrivs led me out of the Stacks while the other ran to fetch Master Lorren. When we emerged into the entryway, Ambrose managed to look confused and shocked. He overacted the part, but it was convincing enough for the scriv accompanying me. "What's he doing in here?" "We found him wandering around," the scriv explained."With a candle." "What?" Ambrose's expression was perfectly aghast. "Well I didn't sign him in," Ambrose said. He flipped open one of the ledger books. "Look. See for yourself." Before anything else could be said, Lorren stormed into the room. His normally placid expression was fierce and hard. I felt myself sweat cold and I thought of what Teccam wrote in his Theophany: There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man. Lorren towered over the entry desk. "Explain," he demanded of the nearby scriv. His voice was a tight coil of fury. "Micah and I saw a flickering light in the stacks and we went to see if someone was having trouble with their lamp. We found him near the southeast stairwell with this." The scriv held up the candle. His hand shook slightly under Lorren's glare. Lorren turned to the desk where Ambrose sat. "How did this happen, Re'lar?" Ambrose raised his hands helplessly. "He came in earlier and I wouldn't admit him because he wasn't in the book. We bickered for a while, Fela was here for most of it." He looked at me. "Eventually I told him he'd have to leave. He must have snuck in when I went into the back room for more ink." Ambrose shrugged. "Or maybe he slipped in past the desk in Tomes." I stood there, stupefied. What little part of my mind wasn't leaden with fatigue was preoccupied with the screaming pain across my back. "That . . . that's not true." I looked up at Lorren. "He let me in. He sent Fela away, then let me in." "What?" Ambrose gaped at me, momentarily speechless. For all that I didn't like him, I must give him credit for a masterful performance. "Why in God's name would I do that?" "Because I embarrassed you in front of Fela," I said. "He sold me the candle, too." I shook my head trying to clear my head. "No, he gave it to me." Ambrose's expression was amazed. "Look at him." He laughed. "The little cocker is drunk or something." "I was just whipped!" I protested. My voice sounded shrill in my own ears. "Enough!" Lorren shouted, looming over us like a pillar of anger. The scrivs went pale at the sound of him. Lorren turned away from me, and made a brief, contemptuous gesture toward the desk. "Re'lar Ambrose is officially remanded for laxity in his duty." "What?" Ambrose's indignant tone wasn't feigned this time. Lorren frowned at him, and Ambrose closed his mouth. Turning to me, he said, "E'lir Kvothe is banned from the Archives." He made a sweeping gesture with the flat of his hand. I tried to think of something I could say in my defense. "Master, I didn't mean—" Lorren rounded on me. His expression, always so calm before, was filled with such a cold, terrible anger that I took a step away from him without meaning to. "You mean?" he said. "I care nothing for your intentions, E'lir Kvothe, deceived or otherwise. All that matters is the reality of your actions. Your hand held the fire. Yours is the blame. That is the lesson all adults must learn." It was the nahlrout, of course. It had kept me from bleeding. It had seemed like such a good idea at the time. Now it seemed petty and foolish. Ambrose would never have managed to gull me so easily if my naturally suspicious nature hadn't been fuddled. I'm sure I could have found some way to explain things to Lorren if I'd had my wits about me. As I made my way to the far corner of the room, I realized the truth. I had traded away my access to the Archives in exchange for a little notoriety. "Banned?" Manet looked up at me. "He hasn't banned anyone in a dozen years. What'd you do? Piss on a book?" "Some of the scrivs found me inside with a candle." "Merciful Tehlu." Manet lay down his fork, his expression serious for the first time. "Old Lore must have been furious." "Furious is exactly the right word," I said. "What possessed you to go in there with an open flame?" Simmon asked. "I couldn't afford a hand lamp," I said. "So the scriv at the desk gave me a candle instead." "He didn't," Sim said. "No scriv would . . ." "Hold on," Manet said. "Was this a dark-haired fellow? Well-dressed? Severe eyebrows?" He made an exaggerated scowl. I nodded tiredly "Ambrose. We met yesterday. Got off on the wrong foot." "You won't need this piece of information for a while," Manet said quietly after a long period of silence. "What with being banned from the Archives and all. Still, I'm supposing you'd rather know. . . ." He cleared his throat uncomfortably. "You don't have to buy a hand lamp. You just sign them out at the desk and return them when you're done." He looked at me as if anxious about what sort of reaction the information might provoke. I nodded wearily.
[Killmonger Voice]Huh? Is this your Mary-Sue?
"What do I have to do," I asked, "to study naming under you?" He met my eye calmly, appraising me. "Jump," he said. "Jump off this roof." That's when I realized that all of this had been a test. Elodin had been taking my measure ever since we met. He had a grudging respect for my tenacity, and he had been surprised that I noticed something odd about the air in his room. He was on the verge of accepting me as a student. But he needed more, proof of my dedication. A demonstration. A leap of faith. And as I stood there, a piece of story came to mind. So Taborlin fell, but he did not despair. For he knew the name of the wind, and so the wind obeyed him. It cradled and caressed him. It bore him to the ground as gently as a puff of thistledown. It set him on his feet softly as a mother's kiss. Elodin knew the name of the wind. Still looking him in the eye, I stepped off the edge of the roof. Elodin's expression was marvelous. I have never seen a man so astonished. I spun slightly as I fell, so he stayed in my line of vision. I saw him raise one hand slightly, as if making a belated attempt to grab hold of me. I felt weightless, like I was floating. Then I struck the ground. Not gently, like a feather settling down. Hard. Like a brick hitting a cobblestone street. I landed on my back with my left arm beneath me. My vision went dark as the back of my head struck the ground and all the air was driven from my body. I didn't lose consciousness. I just lay there, breathless and unable to move. I remember thinking, quite earnestly, that I was dead. That I was blind. Eventually my sight returned, leaving me blinking against the sudden brightness of the blue sky. Pain tore through my shoulder and I tasted blood. I couldn't breathe. I tried to roll off my arm, but my body wouldn't listen to me. I had broken my neck . . . my back . . . After a long, terrifying moment, I managed to gasp a shallow breath, then another. I gave a sigh of relief and realized that I had at least one broken rib in addition to everything else, but I moved my fingers slightly, then my toes. They worked. I hadn't broken my spine. As I lay there, counting my blessings and broken ribs, Elodin stepped into my field of vision. He looked down at me. "Congratulations," he said. "That was the stupidest thing I've ever seen." His expression was a mix of awe and disbelief. "Ever." And that is when I decided to pursue the noble art of artificing. Not that I had a lot of other options. Before helping me limp to the Medica, Elodin made it clear that anyone stupid enough to jump off a roof was too reckless to be allowed to hold a spoon in his presence, let alone study something as "profound and volatile" as naming.
Kvothe's absolute failure in learning naming for the first half of WMF:
Elodin made a sweeping gesture toward me. “Then there is the third path. The path of Kvothe.” He strode to stand shoulder to shoulder with me, facing Fela. “You sense something between you. Something wonderful and delicate.” He gave a romantic, lovelorn sigh. “And, because you desire certainty in all things, you decide to force the issue. You take the shortest route. Simplest is best, you think.” Elodin extended his own hands and made wild grasping motions in Fela’s direction. “So you reach out and you grab this young woman’s breasts.” There was a burst of startled laughter from everyone except Fela and myself. I scowled. She crossed her arms in front of her chest and her flush spread down her neck until it was hidden by her shirt. Elodin turned his back to her and looked me in the eye. “Re’lar Kvothe,” he said seriously. “I am trying to wake your sleeping mind to the subtle language the world is whispering. I am trying to seduce you into understanding. I am trying to teach you.” He leaned forward until his face was almost touching mine. “Quit grabbing at my tits.” I left Elodin’s class in a foul mood.
Kvothe's blatant failures with Kilvin:
Kilvin let out a deep sigh. “Before, when you made your thief ’s lamp, you made a bad thing in a good way. That I do not like.” He looked down at the schema. “This time you have made a good thing in a bad way. That is better, but not entirely. Best is to make a good thing in a good way. Agreed?” I nodded. He lay one massive hand on the crossbow. “Did anyone see you with it?” I shook my head. “Then we will say it is mine, and you procured it under my advisement. It will join the equipment in Stocks.” He gave me a hard look. “And in the future you will come to me if you need such things.” That stung a bit, as I’d been planning on selling it back to Sleat. Still, it could have been worse. The last thing I wanted was to run afoul of the iron law. “Third, I see no mention of gold wire or silver in your schema,” he said. “Nor can I imagine any use they could be put to in such a device as yours. Explain why you have checked these materials out of Stocks.” I was suddenly pointedly aware of the cool metal of my gram against the inside of my arm. Its inlay was gold, but I could hardly tell him that. “I was short on money, Master Kilvin. And I needed materials I couldn’t get in Stocks.” “Such as your flatbow.” I nodded. “And the straw and the bear traps.” “Wrong follows wrong,” Kilvin said disapprovingly. “The Stocks are not a moneylender’s stall and should not be used as such. I am rescinding your precious metals authorization.” I bowed my head, hoping I looked appropriately chastised. “You will also work twenty hours in Stocks as your punishment. If anyone asks, you will tell them what you did. And explain that as a punishment you were forced to repay the value of the metals plus an additional twenty percent. If you use Stocks as a moneylender, you will be charged interest like a moneylender.” I winced at that. “Yes, Master Kilvin.”
Vashet slapping the murder and Mary Sue right out of Kvothe:
I sighed. “Must we, Vashet?” She raised an eyebrow at me. “Must we what?” “Must we focus always on hand fighting?” I said. “My swordplay is falling farther and farther behind.” “Am I not your teacher?” she asked. “Who are you to say what is best?” “I am the one who will have to use these skills out in the world,” I said pointedly. “And out in the world, I would rather fight with a sword than a fist.” Vashet lowered her hands, her expression blank. “And why is that?” “Because other people have swords,” I said. “And if I’m in a fight, I intend to win.” “Is winning a fight easier with a sword?” she asked. Vashet’s outward calm should have warned me I was stepping onto thin conversational ice, but I was distracted by the nauseating pain radiating from my groin. Though honestly, even if I hadn’t been distracted, it’s possible I wouldn’t have noticed. I had grown comfortable with Vashet, too comfortable to be properly careful. “Of course,” I said. “Why else carry a sword?” “That is a good question,” she said. “Why does one carry a sword?” “Why do you carry anything? So you can use it.” Vashet gave me a look of raw disgust. “Why do we bother to work on your language, then?” She asked angrily, reaching out to grab my jaw, pinching my cheeks and forcing my mouth open as if I were a patient in the Medica refusing my medicine. “Why do you need this tongue if a sword will do? Tell me that?” I tried to pull away, but she was stronger than me. I tried to push her away, but she shrugged my flailing hands away as if I were a child. Vashet let go of my face, then caught my wrist, jerking my hand up in front of my face. “Why do you have hands at all and not knives at the ends of your arms?” Then she let go of my wrist and struck me hard across the face with the flat of her hand. If I say she slapped me, you will take the wrong impression. This wasn’t the dramatic slap of the sort you see on a stage. Neither was it the offended, stinging slap a lady-in-waiting makes against the smooth skin of a too-familiar nobleman. It wasn’t even the more professional slap of a serving girl defending herself from the unwelcome attention of a grabby drunk. No. This was hardly any sort of slap at all. A slap is made with the fingers or the palm. It stings or startles. Vashet struck me with her open hand, but behind that was the strength of her arm. Behind that was her shoulder. Behind that was the complex machinery of her pivoting hips, her strong legs braced against the ground, and the ground itself beneath her. It was like the whole of creation striking me through the flat of her hand, and the only reason it didn’t cripple me is that even in the middle of her fury, Vashet was always perfectly in control. Because she was in control, Vashet didn’t dislocate my jaw or knock me unconscious. But it made my teeth rattle and my ears ring. It made my eyes roll in my head and my legs go loose and shaky. I would have fallen if Vashet hadn’t gripped me by the shoulder. “Do you think I am teaching you the secrets of the sword so you can go out and use them?” she demanded. I dimly realized she was shouting. It was the first time I had ever heard one of the Adem raise their voice. “Is that what you think we are doing here?” As I lolled in her grip, stupefied, she struck me again. This time her hand caught more of my nose. The pain of it was amazing, as if someone had driven a sliver of ice directly into my brain. It jolted me out of my daze so I was fully alert when she hit me the third time. Vashet held me for a moment while the world spun, then let go. I took one unsteady step and crumpled to the ground like a puppet with its strings cut. Not unconscious, but profoundly dazed. It took me a long time to collect myself. When I was finally able to sit up, my body felt loose and unwieldy, as if it had been taken apart and put back together again in a slightly different way. She reached out and ran her thumb along the side of my face. It felt cool against the swelling. “You must have angered her very.” “I can tell that by the ringing of my ears,” I said. Penthe shook her head. “No. Your marks.” She gestured to her own face this time. “With another, it might be a mistake, but Vashet would not leave such if she did not wish everyone to see.” The bottom dropped out of my stomach and my hand went unconsciously to my face. Of course. This wasn’t mere punishment. It was a message to all of Ademre. “Fool that I am,” I said softly. “I did not realize this until now.”
[Killmonger Voice]The Mary Sue who's supposed be unrealistically perfect and lack any flaws or weaknesses? This is your guy who does no wrong?
Sleat rubbed at his face. “Let me see. You play the lute passing well and are proud as a kicked cat. You are unmannerly, sharp-tongued, and show no respect for your betters, which is practically everyone given your lowly ravel birth.” I felt a flush of anger start in my face and sweep, hot and prickling, down the entire length of my body. “I am the best musician you will ever meet or see from a distance,” I said with forced calm. “And I am Edema Ruh to my bones. That means my blood is red. It means I breathe the free air and walk where my feet take me. I do not cringe and fawn like a dog at a man’s title. That looks like pride to people who have spent their lives cultivating supple spines.” Sleat gave a lazy smile, and I realized he’d been baiting me. “You also have a temper, so I’ve heard. I continued to meet with Celean in the grassy field next to the sword tree. I looked forward to these encounters despite the fact that she thrashed me with cheerful ruthlessness every time we fought. It took three days before I finally managed to beat her. Celean had a lesson of her own to teach me. Namely that there are opponents who will not hesitate to punch, kick, or elbow a man directly in his genitals. Never hard enough to permanently injure me, mind you. She’d been fighting her entire young life and had the control Vashet valued so highly. But that meant she knew exactly how hard to strike to leave me stunned and reeling, making her victory utterly unquestionable. So I sat on the grass, feeling grey and nauseous. “How dare you!” I spat back angrily. “I can’t believe I trusted you! I defended you to my friends—” I trailed off as the unthinkable happened. Despite my binding, Devi started to move, her hand inching its way into the open drawer. I concentrated harder and Devi’s hand came to a halt. Then, slowly, it began to creep forward again, disappearing into the drawer. I couldn’t believe it. “You think you can come in here and threaten me?” Devi hissed, her face a mask of rage. “You think I can’t take care of myself? I made Re’lar before they threw me out, you little slipstick. I earned it. My Alar is like the ocean in storm.” Her hand was almost completely inside the drawer now. I felt a clammy sweat break out across my forehead and broke my mind three more times. I murmured again and each piece of my mind made a separate binding, focusing on keeping her still. I drew heat from my body, feeling the cold crawl up my arms as I bore down on her. That was five bindings in all. My outside limit. Devi went motionless as stone, and she chuckled deep in her throat, grinning. “Oh you’re very good. I almost believe the stories about you now. But what makes you think you can do what even Elxa Dal couldn’t? Why do you think they expelled me? They feared a woman who could match a master by her second year.” Sweat made her pale hair cling to her forehead. She clenched her teeth, her pixie face savage with determination. Her hand began to move again. Then, with a sudden burst of motion she yanked her hand out of the drawer... I felt a sudden, jarring impact, as if I’d fallen several feet and landed flat on a stone floor. It was startling, but nowhere near as bad as it could have been. Through the terror, some small part of me marveled at her precision and control. The binding that held me fell away, and I drew a deep breath. “I understand, Devi,” I said. “But can—” “Get OUT!” she shouted. I got out. I would like to say it was a dignified exit, but that would not be the truth.
[Killmonger Voice]Him? He's supposed to be better than everyone?
Editted to Add More Examples: Updated 11/13/20 Here's hardened, grown men not even slightly taking him seriously:
The tall man shook his head somberly. "I was in the tavern when they came in with the news. They were gatherin' folk with wagons so they could go get the bodies. The whole wedding party dead as leather. Over thirty folks gutted like pigs and the place burned down in a blue flame. And that weren't the least oddness from what. ..." He dropped his voice and I lost what he was saying among the general noise of the room. I swallowed against the sudden dryness in my throat. I slowly tied off the last stitch on my cloak and set it down. I noticed my bleeding finger and absently put it in my mouth. I took a deep breath. I took a drink. Then I walked over to the table where the two men sat talking. "Did you gentlemen come downriver by any chance?" They looked up, obviously irritated by the interruption. Gentlemen had been a mistake, I should have said fellows, fellas. The bald one nodded. "Did you come by way of Marrow?" I asked, picking a northern town at random. "No," the fat one said. "We're down from Trebon." "Oh good." I said, my mind racing for a plausible lie. "I have family up in those parts I was thinking of visiting." My mind went blank as I tried to think of a way to ask him for the details of the story I'd overheard. My palms were sweaty. "Are they getting ready for the harvest festival up that way, or have I already missed it?" I finished lamely. "Still in the works," the bald one said and pointedly turned his shoulder to me. "I'd heard there was some problem with a wedding up in those parts...." The bald one turned back to look at me. "Well I don't know how you'd have heard that. As the news was fresh last night and we just docked down here ten minutes ago." He gave me a hard look. "I don't know what you're sellin', boy. But I ain't buyin'. Piss off or I'll thump you." I went back to my seat, knowing I'd made an irrecoverable mess of things. Tam grinned at him. “And what’re yeh doin’ in town?” “We’re just passing through,” I said. “We met up on the road and he was nice enough to walk with me.” Tam looked me up and down dismissively. “I wan’t talkin’ to you, boy,” he growled. “Mind yer betters.” ........Tam shook his head in exaggerated bemusement. “Even if I believed yeh for a second,” he said, “that means yeh should make four or five pennies a day. Not twenny. Wh—” I put on my most ingratiating smile and leaned into the conversation. “Listen, I—” Tam’s mug knocked hard against the tabletop, sending a splash of cider leaping up into the air. He gave me a dangerous look that didn’t hold any of the false playfulness he’d been showing Tempi. “Boy,” he said. “Yeh innerupt me again, and I’ll knock yer teeth right out.” He said it without any particular emphasis, as if he were letting me know that if I jumped into the river, I was bound to get wet. Tam turned back to Tempi.
[Killmonger Voice]This is your silver tongued 'Mary Sue' ?
While my mind was occupied, I misplayed and we lost another hand, putting us down four in a row with a forfeit besides. Manet glared at me while he gathered in the cards. “Here’s a primer for admissions.” He held up his hand, three fingers spearing angrily into the air. “Let’s say you have three spades in your hand, and there have been five spades laid down.” He held up his other hand, fingers splayed wide. “How many spades is that, total?” He leaned back in his chair, crossing his arms. “Take your time.” I covered a fellow student’s observation shift in the Medica in exchange for a jot and helped a merchant unload three wagonloads of lime for halfpenny each. Then, later that night, I found a handful of cutthroat gamblers willing to let me sit in on their game of breath. Over the course of two hours I managed to lose eighteen pennies and some loose iron. Though it galled me, I forced myself to walk away from the table before things got any worse. At the end of all my scrambling, I had less in my purse than when I had begun.
[Killmonger Voice]Him? The guy who's very often complete trash at card games is an 'unrealistically good at everything Mary Sue' huh?
Patrick Rothfuss on Kvothe being an Unreliable NarratoMary Sue:
However people read the book makes me happy, as long as they enjoy themselves. But I will say that one of the reads I find a little irritating is where they think, "Oh, he's the best at everything. Oh, he's telling this story where he's so cool all the time." Are you reading the same story that I wrote? Because, like, he is constantly shitting the bed. He is full of terrible decisions all the time. If I were gonna go back and mythologize my life, I would leave out so many of the terrible choices that I made. https://www.wired.com/2016/08/wired-book-club-patrick-rothfuss-interview/
My thoughts: Kvothe is really only a Mary Sue if you prize attributes like talent, intelligence, and power over things like patience, wisdom, thoughtfulness, and making reasonable choices and life decisions. Because then, that's all you see/focus on in Kvothe. His capabilities. Anyone who is or knows someone really intelligent, really skilled, etc. decently well knows that that doesn't mean shit-all if they go around making horrible life decisions or foolish choices in general. Assuming you've read the story fully, Kvothe's only a Mary Sue if you put his capabilities on a pedestal and then confirmation bias tunnel visions you to focus only on that aspect of him. If you can't relate to those qualities in him and this causes you to dismiss/other him as a Mary Sue.... how about you relate to the fact that he's a young, arrogant kid who thinks he knows everything while simultaneously knowing nothing about love/the opposite gender, who constantly makes dumb decisions. Same as most of us when we were his age. 11/13/20 Edit Update:
I guarantee half, if not most, of the people who can only say 'well, you sound mean and horrible in the post' as a response are people who stumbled onto this thread and subreddit from the front page and never read a page of the books. Feel free to return to the subs you usually frequent unless you have something substantive to say about the book series that this entire subreddit is about (as I spent this entire post doing)
Unfortunately, I just can't find it in me to care about your opinions beyond the books. Sorry, not sorry. ;-)
The Vow of Silver Dawn Chapter 1 - English Translation
There's been a lot of discussion about the new Chinese-exclusive canon ebook The Vow of Silver Dawn, and how there won't be an official translation of it, so I figured I'd have a go for my own enjoyment (and hopefully yours too!). I will eventually do all of the chapters as they come out, though Matt Martin has said the book is "looooooog, like super long," so I can't promise translations on the regular, but I'll share them as I can. Edits: Fixed a few typos and added a link to Chapter 2 Star Wars The Vow of Silver Dawn By His Majesty the King Chapter 1 Welcome to Bergamore A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away. The Republic ruled a highly-developed galactic society, its capital of Coruscant like a blazing star spreading the light and heat of civilization abundantly. However, in those corners where the light was not as bright, shadows were present, and poverty and corruption inevitably bred in the fringe areas of the Republic. Bergamore, located in the Outer Rim of the galaxy, had followed its irregular orbit around a binary star system for countless years. The planet merited only occasional attention from the Republic’s indifferent citizens, who viewed it as impoverished and backward. However, a few decades ago, a politician by the name of Jamie Brasen had risen to prominence on the planet Bergamore. Projecting charm and integrity, he won the support of the planet’s three billion inhabitants and became Bergamore’s President, bringing envoys to meet with the Senate of the Republic. On the capital world of Coruscant, he earned the respect of many senators with his almost flawless personal image. In the view of the Senate, Jamie Brasen was honest and upright, with a gentle and humble personality. Under his rule, Bergamore had become increasingly prosperous and rich, gradually ridding itself of its poor and underdeveloped reputation, and Brasen built up the planetary capital of Green Sunlight into a model city. The thriving metropolis amazed countless tourists from far and wide. But Brasen himself had maintained a meager life for decades; even when he attended his conference with the Republic, Brasen had worn a patchwork jacket. Surely, there was nothing more to this so-called saint than that. ____ “Sure enough, there are no real saints in the world…” A human woman covered her beautiful, dignified face with a gray cloak and walked quietly down a dark and damp street, looking at the crookedly-built temporary buildings along both sides of the path, and the shivering abandoned children under the shelter of awnings. She couldn’t help pursing her lips tightly at the sight, and sighed sadly within her heart. Not far from this street – 20 meters overhead, to be precise – was the proudest, most affluent city on the planet of Bergamore, gleaming like a steel green forest. The city’s architectural style had been based on that of Coruscant. Although the sprawl had not spread over every corner of Bergamore as had happened to Coruscant, the city shown as bright as a star for the remote and impoverished planet. However, how many people knew that under its dazzling epidermis, the city was rotten to the bone? How many knew that of Bergamore’s 3 billion people, only a very small number could live a life of luxury in the modern buildings of the capital Green Sunlight? The woman walked in silence, and after a while, a group of devious shadows came to follow. In this underworld domain, a woman walking alone in the slums was almost like bait thrown into a fishing pond. In her wake, slave traders who longed for better captives, black market doctors looking for fresh organs, murderers who took pleasure in killing, and down-on-their-luck gamblers followed. However, the woman simply looked back at the devious shadows. They disappeared like morning mist upon encountering the sun. Suddenly, these underworld thugs couldn’t even recall what they had come here after. The woman didn’t care, and wasn’t surprised. After coming to Bergamore, similar instances had happened too many times to count. She shook her head, continued on her way, and walked until she reached a dilapidated hotel. Entering the only upper-class guest room, she took off her cloak, exhaled, and clicked on a huge projection covering an entire wall of the room. The screen, displayed by a customized communication device in the shape of a wrist bracelet she wore, transmitted new data. Two holoimages quickly lit up on the wall. In the first, haggard children were kept in dark cages like animals, awaiting their fate as livestock before a slaughter. In contrast, the other image showed revelers in the upper level of the city, drunk and enjoying a life comparable to that of the rich nobles at the core of the Republic. Various images such as these came to light up the entirety of the wall – and this was the collection of a woman who had only come to Bergamore a week ago. On the display, various pictures and annotations were connected by lines of different colors, like a densely-woven network with countless clues pointing to the core. At the center was the image of the President of the planet Bergamore, Jamie Brasen! It was the President of Bergamore, who was well-known on Coruscant, that had led to countless tragedies. Nearly every large criminal organization working behind the scenes on the planet stemmed from Jamie Brasen. He was at the helm of the consortiums and the gangs, the highest in the food chain. Before he had come to power, Bergamore had been poor, but its populace had lived in peace. The people had never been treated inhumanely, and had followed a harmonious life for thousands of years. However, in the span of just a few decades, the surface of this planet had been filled with criminals… and bones. This was all still unknown to the galaxy at large. Jamie Brasen still enjoyed the prestige of a saint, and no one could tarnish his perfect reputation. The woman stared silently at the network of clues on the wall. Suddenly, the communicator bracelet on her arm chirped, and she placed the device on the table. A blue holographic projection appeared. She saw an octopus-like alien head appear in her field of vision, and the four tentacles on its chin squirmed gently, indicating his species as a Quarren. A gaze of utmost respect shown in the two round eyes. “Salutations to you, respected Master Jedi…” Before he finished speaking, the woman interrupted: “As I’ve said, please, call me Mostema.” The Quarren individual seemed slightly uneasy. Mostema continued, “Don’t feel anxious, just treat this as a business exchange between colleagues. You used to oversee the Republic’s intelligence work on Bergamore, and I really could use you professional advice.” The Quarren felt even more ashamed when he heard this. “Jamie Brasen is a very cunning politician. I have been here for many years, and I have never him in the act of wrongdoing.” “Being able to verify the other party’s cunning is still the result of important work,” Mostema assured the Quarren. “Do you have any suggestions for the next job?” With that, the Jedi Master transmitted all the information she had collected to the Quarren agent. Upon hearing the transmission had been received, the Quarren quickly turned his attention to his own display screen. His two already-huge eyeballs grew wider. “Master, is this the evidence you’ve collected? You really deserve to be a Jedi Master. All this within just a few standard days, and so much as been compiled! Let me see… God, this chain of evidence is so complete! Next, just add the testimonies from StarFan Hostel and Shining Manpower…” Again before he had finished, he saw Mostema exhibit two new portraits on the display through the communicator bracelet. They were the leaders of StarFan Hostel and Shining Manpower, and their confessions and related testimonies told the same story. Moments passed. The Quarren was stunned. “… This is worthy of the Jedis’ famed omnipotence, the final link in the chain of evidence is here! As long as you submit this dossier to the Senate in the name of the Jedi Order, it should be enough to merit acceptance. Jamie Brasen’s evil rule ends here!” “Hmmm…” Mostema thought to herself briefly, but then smiled and shook her head. “So, what if this wasn’t submitted in the name of the Jedi Order? For example, if it came from you, or even an ordinary person working on Bergamore?” The Quarren was stunned momentarily, then said in a low voice, “I am afraid that would be a bit insufficient. The President’s crimes are rarely committed firsthand; almost all of them are done by others. There is no proof that directly connections him to a crime. And, his perception within the Republic is nearly pristine. Everyone thinks of Brasen as a humble and incorruptible philanthropist. He also has the most prestigious lawyers in the galaxy at his disposal, and has turned black to white through the courts many times, in fact, with legal deposition on his side. Taking on a politically-strong man who has controlled this planet for decades is far-fetched in itself, so I hope you can…” “Do you hope to use the name of the Jedi in order to bring him down? Then the essence of the matter is that I wield Jedi political sway extrajudiciously to forcibly interfere with the judgment of the Senate. Simply because I can’t stand Brasen, I should use the influence of the Jedi Order, dressed in the guise of the law, and ask the Senate to make him stand trial? How does that set me apart from a reckless tyrant such as him?” The Quarren thought for a long moment, and suggested reluctantly, “If you must build your case through legal avenues, then you still aren’t without tricks at your disposal. Now that the Jedi Council has decided to investigate Jamie Brasen, then use your skills. Can’t you merely go to the President and let him confide the truth to you on his own? That’s the kind of hypnotizing technique that only the Jedi use…” The Jedi Master deeply regretted the recognition of this power. “The Force techniques mastered by the Jedi are a double-edged sword. Of course I can use the Force to confound Jamie’s mind and make him self-report his crimes, but in the same fashion, this technique could be used to elicit a false confession, and allow innocent people to be unjustly wronged. If it was known I had influenced his mind, any testimony obtained from Brasen through hypnosis becomes invalid. Additionally, since Jamie Brasen is exceptionally crafty, it is entirely possible for him to anticipate and prepare for a Jedi mind trick in advance. In which case, he could not be hypnotized into telling the truth.” The Quarren said helplessly, “If you believe that’s possible, then the situation is very dire. Jamie has been in control of Bergamore for so long, and the whole planet has become like a combination of labyrinth and spider web what with illegal intrigue, that it is difficult to pinpoint his location at a given time through peripheral clues. If you will have to speak with him, you can only try to find the legendary manor. Some have said that the President built a private mansion on the outskirts of Green Sunlight, where he lives a life of glamour. More importantly, he is known to entertain guests at the manor. Most of is crimes are designed and completed within the manor’s walls. I have been investigating for many years, but I have yet to find the slightest trace about the manor’s location…” As he was talking, the Quarren suddenly heard the communicator bracelet on the table start to ding, and the woman’s cold expression melted a bit – though it was only barely perceptible, the Quarren felt sure the change wasn’t because she was looking at him. Mostema stated, “I have asked my apprentice to investigate Jamie’s manor.” The Quarren was shocked. “Apprentice? You didn’t come alone?” “Yes, my apprentice Sean. He is still at the stage of training, 17 years old but still immature and in need of more tutelage. So I asked him to go to the lower city to investigate intelligence leads on the Presidential Manor.” The Quarren only experienced a moment of astonishment before saying, “Master, Jamie has always attached great importance to the secrets of his manor. Anyone who dares to investigate it privately will have their life in danger! More to the point, many of my own elite agents have gone missing here in the Green Sunlight District!” “Yes, so I told him to be particularly careful while investigating.” “This is not a question of carelessness. Your apprentice is but merely a student? With all due respect, even for a Jedi who has mastered the art of the Force…” However, as he was speaking, Mostema had reached out and pressed the button for multi-person communication feature on the bracelet, and suddenly another projection appeared beside the octopus-like head. It was of a human teenager who seemed to be only 16 or 17 years old… the Quarren was not especially good at distinguishing human ages from simple beauty and ugliness, but seeing this black-haired and dark-eyed teenager, he immediately felt a sense of camaraderie. The other party took the initiative to say hello to the alien. “Good afternoon, Master! I presume this is our agent Mr. Squak, I’m glad to meet you! I read your ‘Bergamore Investigation Report.’ The work was very meticulous, it was really quite admirable!” The Quarren’s rough skin abruptly took on a blood-like color. “I… I am too ashamed. There have been no reliable results from the investigation for several years…” “No, because your work has not yielded any results, the Republic will request the Jedi Order to send a Master to investigate, which will substantially accelerate the progress of the investigation. I believe the people of Bergamore will remember you contributions long into the future!” At last, the Quarren was utterly speechless. Chapter 2: https://www.reddit.com/starwarscanon/comments/kqri6v/the_vow_of_silver_dawn_chapter_2_english/
[TRADING PSYCHOLOGY] Nobody ever takes a trade thinking it's going to be a loser
I spent several hours this past week coaching traders at my prop firm. And something caught my attention… Every single one of these traders needed help with the same thing. It has to do with what I call the “reverse” gambler’s fallacy. And it’s something many traders struggle with. Today, I’ll show you how to get this common obstacle under control… and start earning more consistent returns year after year… What Most New Traders Get Wrong The obstacle I’m talking about is trading psychology. It’s a very broad term used to describe the emotional side of trading. Almost all new traders believe the most important part of trading is being able to analyze markets like a pro. On the surface, this logic makes sense. After all, if you can reliably forecast which direction to take on a trade, the money should take care of itself… right? What these novices don’t yet understand is that something special happens the moment you commit your money to a trade… You start feeling things. Whether it’s fear, excitement, anxiety, or a mix of all three, no one is immune to these emotions. And they can wreak havoc on even the best planned trades. You may be able to call the direction, the timing, and the target price to perfection… But it can all be for nothing if you are unable to stick to your trade plan. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen traders plan out a great trade… But then ended up somehow losing money, or not being in the market when the move they’d forecast played out. So how do you beat your emotions to become a better, more consistent trader? It comes down to the three key parts of trading. Let me explain… The Three-Legged Stool of Trading I think of trading as a three-legged stool. Your methodology/strategy for picking trades is the first leg. Your risk- and trade-management strategy is the second leg. And the third leg is your trading psychology. In my experience, most traders focus on the first leg (strategy and methodology), and they neglect the other two legs. But the stool needs all three legs to stand on its own. Over the years, I’ve honed my own proprietary method to develop well-rounded traders. Here’s what I’ve learned… The first fundamental building block of a profitable trader is to establish a proven strategy/methodology you can use to identify good trades. In my experience, everything follows from this foundation. How you manage your risk and your trades should be determined by the strategies you employ. Your trading psychology likewise will be influenced by your approach to risk and trade management. I’ve seen other trading instructors assign arbitrary percentage values to the three legs of the trading stool. Usually these values are divided up like this: 30% to the level of importance on the analytical strategy, 30% to risk and trade management, and 40% to trading psychology. But I don’t believe that any one leg is more important than the other. And yet I’ve found that, more often than not, traders neglect risk/trade management and psychology. So how do you stop neglecting these two important areas to become a more well-rounded trader? That’s where our reverse gambler’s fallacy comes in… Time to Ditch the Casino Mentality There is one block that seems to stop traders from progressing to working on the other two legs. That is, they don’t know how to flip the switch from thinking about their trades as individual trades in a vacuum… to thinking about them as a collection that relies on a statistical edge to net a profit. Most traders run into this problem at some point in their careers. And if you’re frustrated with your trading right now, chances are you may be struggling with this, too. It’s known as the casino mentality. And it’s the same mindset that amateur gamblers will take with them into Caesars Palace or the Bellagio. It doesn’t matter if they’re seated at the blackjack table or standing over the roulette wheel. Most gamblers believe that the hand or spin they are about to play is the opportunity to hit a winner. After all, if the roulette wheel has landed four black spins in a row, the next one surely must be red, right? In reality, the chances of the roulette ball landing on black or red is even, at about 47.4% each. This means each spin is independent of the last. This is also known as the gambler’s fallacy. What’s interesting is that I’ve observed a kind of reverse gambler’s fallacy from many traders… This occurs when a trader, who does in fact have a statistically proven strategy, goes on a losing streak… And then instead of continuing to trust their strategy, they abandon it altogether. How to Avoid the “Reverse” Gambler’s Fallacy I saw this logical fallacy in effect this past week during one of my coaching calls. The trader I was coaching had recently taken a technical setup that simply did not work. He was convinced he had done something wrong and wanted my help in improving his analysis. But his analysis was great. He didn’t do anything wrong in identifying the setup, which was textbook in nature. But the setup looked so good that, when it resulted in a loss, the trader was convinced that he was the problem… That he did something wrong. The lesson I imparted to him, which I now want to pass on to you, is this very simple truth… Nobody, and I mean nobody, ever takes a trade thinking it is going to be a loser. Every single trade you take will be because you thought it would make you money. Despite this feeling of confidence, out of 100 trades, you’d be lucky to win 50% of them. That’s why a great trader is not defined by what percentage of their trades end up as winners or losers. A great trader is defined by whether or not they are net profitable after taking 100 trades. If you win roughly as many trades as you lose, but your winners make you 2x or 3x the amount of money you give back on your losers, you will end up with a nice profit at the end of the year. Remember, nobody ever takes a trade thinking it is not going to work out. This is why it is absolutely crucial to abandon the idea of thinking about your trades as individual trades. Instead, start taking a more data-driven, statistical approach to your trading. What do I mean by that? Keeping a longer-term perspective on your trading is the key to longevity in this business. What your numbers look like over the next 100, 200, or 300 trades is far more relevant and important than losing your cool because you lost a handful of trades in a row. Of course, to be able to make it to 300 trades, you must have a rock-solid risk management plan in place. I don’t see gamblers at the casino take a professional approach very often. It’s rare to see someone bet small and stick to the odds on every play. It’s far more common for gamblers to be all over the place with the size of their bets. They may start off betting small, but after winning a couple of hands of blackjack, they get overconfident and take an outsized bet. Sure enough, on that next hand they go bust while the house just happens to hit blackjack. This is how casinos make money from gamblers. And it’s how the market parts amateur traders from their capital. No doubt, it takes a lot of hard work and discipline to make the transition from amateur to professional. But, I promise you, the rewards make it all worthwhile. Until next time. Regards,
Ok, so first of all, shopping is impossible! Everything is too rough or too tight OR the fibers in the material cross each other wrong and I can FEEL EVERY SINGLE ONE. Yes I know I can find cute loose fitting stuff, I know I can shop in the mens department and I have been but I'm tired of it. I have a nice butt!! I want to show it off!! I want to wear the cute fall outfits with the long sweaters and black leggings and boots! I want to wear a bikini! This year I have bought maybe 20-25 pairs of pants, all (loose) styles, all materials. I returned many pairs, I donated many pairs. I went from the person who would never spend more than $20 on jeans to giving away a brand new pair of $75 jeans because they didn't work out and I couldn't return them. I finally came out of the year with some sweat pants, some loose joggers and THREE pairs of jeans I could wear. I was so ecstatic about it! 2 of the 3 pairs that I could wear I needed to wear something soft underneath but as long as the tightness wasn't too much of an issue at the time I could still wear them. And the third pair,( omg you guys) I could just wear like normal jeans! This last pair, wouldn't you know, I tore them at work. Yes I know I can sew them back up but they still will never be nice work pants again. I do not want to go to 500 stores in one day to find that the style right now isn't loose fitting mom jeans and I won't be able to wear any of it, leave empty handed, then go back to the same stores in the morning to repeat it. I'm tired of feeling like I'm some crazed gambler at the casino every time I try to shop online. Even the thrift stores let me down. It's not even the stores fault! It's just that now, there are no satisfactory pants. There are no painless options! My joggers and sweats do not look professional at work nor are they very good utility wise. Shout-out to my current location for allowing me to wear sweat pants when necessary, but come on! I am a manager!! I can't carry 20 lbs of keys on my stretchy waist band!! How does it look to see the teenage girl manager wearing sweats at work? I am also starting to become quite ungrateful to anyone who tries to help. No I can't wear the leggings, they're too tight! No those do not count as loose jeans to me, see that front part that just barely touches the cooch?? That is TOO TIGHT!! How will I bend over? What happens when I need to sit and the entire fucking things claws onto my vulva like some awful ultra powerful star fish with claws in its suckers?? Alright, I guess that's the entire rant, and I know it's stuff we've all heard or felt before. I promise I am not this angry or upset all the time, I just wanted to express all of my desperation in this one moment. Thank you to anyone who read this. Be safe, feel good ya'll.
This is the story about me as an ex-believer of Butt. Butt has made me significantly richer, but it has also twisted my mind, and made me incredibly greedy and full of regret and lament due to huge, unrealized profit on paper. I would like to share my story here (BE AWARE, WALL OF TEXT), hoping it would be interesting/useful to provide a glimpse into the mind of an ex-HODLEbeliever, at the same time, perhaps this sub could help me "un-twist" my mind. This is a throwaway account. EDIT: FORMATTING The GPU Miner I learned about Butt back in 2011, when it looked like an interesting and novel idea. Soon after, I started mining, first on the CPU, then on the GPU, then I learned about mining pools. Then I started adding more GPUs. Before I knew it, I had hundreds of Butts in my wallet. Then I heard about MtGox. At the time, the price of Butts just recovered from a big crash, pumping from ~$1 to ~$17. Looked like a pretty good deal to me, so I sold them all. I blew the money on a nice vacation. Right after coming back from the vacation, Butt's price exploded, first to $30, then $50, then it went into triple digits. Of course I became incredibly salty: selling at $17 suddenly became the greatest financial mistake I've ever committed up to that point in my life. That PTSD-like experience would dictate much of my behavior in the next stage. The ASIC Miner I briefly contemplated buying back those Bitcoins I've sold, but decided that's too risky. Mining looked like a better idea instinctively, although at the time I didn't realize why, since I never realized the negative-sum nature of the game until much later. GPU mining was becoming less and less profitable around that time, but there's a group of people who just came up with those shiny new ASIC miners, capable of mining at rates measured with GH/s instead of MH/s. Butts began to accumulate in my wallet again, and while it took longer this time, I eventually hit triple digits again. Eventually, the total hashrate became so high, even the ASIC miner wasn't profitable anymore so I stopped mining, and ended up with some 200 Bitcoins. Having witnessed what Bitcoin is truly capable of (price wise), and still suffering the PTSD from last time, I swore I'll never sell my stash ever again. I carefully put the coins in cold storage, safeguarded from any threat, and made multiple backups of the private key. Then I just pretended I didn't even have those Bitcoins and never thought about them again. The MtGox bubble For months, I forgot about those coins and simply carried on with my life, feeling good with myself because I knew I was on the boat to the next great financial evolution. At the time, I truly believed that Bitcoin was the future of money, and the price represents its adoption, and it's free from manipulation because it's traded globally 24/7 on multiple exchanges, which makes it too hard to manipulate. Then the MtGox bubble happened and the price pumped into 4-digits. Now, there's this interesting psychological thing which I would like to call "FOCO / Fear of Cashing Out". When the price pumps, I held onto my stash even harder like my dear life, because if it pumped 10x today, who knows it's not going to pump by 100x in the future? At least, that's precisely how I felt back then. Rationally, I knew it's a highly volatile, purely speculative asset, and I knew I should at least sell _some_ to lock in my profits. I sent 10BTC to Bitstamp, planning to sell them, but ultimately I was only able to sell one at the price of $890, because the idea of selling 10 was just too scary. I have reflected on this experience countless times, and at first, I attributed it to my PTSD, until I started reading about other people's experiences (often from posts linked in this sub) and saw similar behaviors. In fact, I didn't come up with the term FOCO myself, instead, I learned it from this other post that I read on this sub about another butter who was once massively in profit but ultimately lost half of his investment. Anyways, as we all know from history, MtGox soon announced its insolvency, and the price crashed all the way to 1/10 of ATH. Having sold only one Butt, of course I was salty and kept blaming myself for not having sold more. But I still believed in the tech! So I HODL'ed onto the rest of my stash even harder, not touching a single Butt until 2017. However, during the entire time up to this point, I was very aware that Butt could become a failed experiment and go to zero, so I did not increase my exposure by buying any. The 2017 Mania After staying largely flat for 3 years, finally Butt's price had been awakened. During the first half of 2017, I felt confident and incredibly smart, thinking HODLing through those 3 years was the best thing I've ever done. Whenever I talked about Butt with my friends, I maintained my cool and kept telling them that Butt is only an experiment, was highly risky, and one should only buy if he/she is ok with losing the money. Internally though, I felt like a genius, and I kept wondering why would _anyone_ in this world invest in stupid, traditional investments like stocks or real estate. Then late 2017 came and the price went parabolic. Suddenly I was a multi-millionaire on paper! My FOCO and PTSD became even more intensive. Instead of selling, I withdrew all Butts I had on exchanges to my cold wallet. During the weeks around the ATH, I tried to convince myself to sell multiple times, but I couldn't. In my mind, I was sure Butt was going to 1 million or even more. I was so sure of it, when the price pulled back to around 10K, I recommended one of my friends to "buy a little bit and HODL". The 2018 Crash Then the price crashed hard, bouncing back a few times before eventually stabilized around 6k. Of course I was going to HODL like I did after 2013! Even harder this time! After all, that was the best thing I've ever done in my life! Little did I think about what that meant to me psychologically. During the 2013 HODL session, even at the top, the on-paper value of the Butts was in the ~200k range, which soon collapsed into ~30k at the bottom. Losing $30k would suck, but it wouldn't have been life-changing, and I was mentally ready to lose that amount. This time was different - at the time I didn't realize it, but there was no way I was mentally ready to lose multiple millions. As the price went down, I was wondering why that for the first time, there was a tremendous amount of fear in my mind, and my once strong hands had become shaky. I became obsessed with the price chart. I became a daily visitor of /ButtMarkets. I followed traders on Twitter and YouTube, desperately trying to gain some clarity about the future of Butt price. Looking back at that, it was so laughable that I was basically letting the Tether printer dictate my emotions, but that's how I genuinely felt and behaved back then. Of course, much of this I only realized through self-reflection much later on. At the time, I was purely driven by emotion. Greediness and fear. There was rational thinking too, but they were so weak in the face of my overwhelming emotion, and was powerless to change my behavior. Regardless, I was trying as hard as I can to HODL on with my shaky hands. Capitulation In Nov 2013, the price finally dropped below 6k which was thought to be the bottom. I had a feeling that that was coming, and I actually did something right out of fear - I moved all my Butts onto an exchange, and set a stop loss order around 5.8k. One day I woke up and realized the stop-loss had been triggered. Suddenly I had somewhere around a million $ on the exchange and 0 Butts. Looking back, I certainly wish I had realized what a fortunate spot I was in. I turned my initial investment of the ASIC miner (around 70K) into over a million. But no. To my brain, I did not gain a million. Instead, I "lost" all the millions I had on paper at the ATH. I was full of anger, sadness, frustration, and despair. The Gambler I refused to accept the "loss". I want to be the "multi-millionaire" that I once was, at least on paper. I decided to make it all back by day trading. It was funny that it was literally the day in my life when I was the richest, but I felt the poorest. Realizing that margins were dangerous, I was determined to never touch that. Instead, I would increase my return myself by deploying the huge amount of cash I had. Genius idea, right? Long story short, I bought high and sold low, and my cash steadily went down while I kept telling myself "it's alright, just make it all back in the next trade". Eventually, I FOMO'ed into the pump of April 2019 then panic sold when it dropped, TWICE on subsequent days in the exact same way. I lost 100k in 2 days. That was my wake-up call that my "trading" was literally setting my money on fire. I decided to pull my "filthy fiat" out. What's left of it, anyway: 500k was all I had left. The Skeptical The 2019 pump (on April 1 when the price suddenly shot up from ~4k to 5k in a matter of minutes) looked way too unnatural and manipulated to me (and partially, my mind was trying to cope with the fact I lost money in a "bull market"). For the first time, I began to doubt my core beliefs about Butt: that it's the future of money, that it can't be manipulated because it's globally traded 24/7, that the price reflects its adoption. Around that time, I began to check this sub. Quickly I've learned about Tether and their shady practices. How naive was I! Being an IT professional, I was fully aware of the episode of the MtGox Willy Bot, yet I thought it was an isolated case and wouldn't happen again. To be honest, at first, much of the reading and researching that I did was out of the need to cope: I wanted to prove that it's not that I don't have "strong hands" anymore, but it's because the market was manipulated. However, soon I realized that the 2017 bull run was also (at least partially) due to market manipulation. I decide to pull out of crypto space and never think about it again. The Tormented ...until the 2020 "bull run". Now, I'm fully aware that Butts has achieved no meaningful adoption at all, and the game has always been negative-sum in nature (which I actually benefited from as a miner), and that Tether has printed 17 billion to prop up the market. But I'm still full of regret and sadness, and I've become obsessed with the price chart again. It's hard for me to deal with the fact that I had cursed myself countless times for not selling at 19K, and yet Butt is literally at that price again. I feel happy whenever the price crashes, and salty when it pumps, even when I consciously know that it's mostly being painted by Tether, and that it has nothing to do with me: I'm not getting back into that ponzi(-like). Rationally, I fully realize that I've been incredibly lucky in this whole ordeal. Half a million is a lot of money, and to be fair it's somewhat life-changing (I'm a professional that makes low-6-figures). Had I bought in during the 2017 bull run, be it DCA or YOLO FOMO or anything, it's very very likely that I would've ended up losing money. I am much much luckier than most of my fellow Butters (at the expense of some of them). However, the whole experience also did indescribable things to my mind. I often lament on why I didn't sell during the 2017 ATH, or why I didn't buy back in during the 2018 low, even now that I fully understand that it's a Ponzi-like scheme, and normally I would have moral reservations about participating in such schemes (even if I were to win). I think the experience has "awakened" the greediness in me, almost some kind of drugs. I realize that this obsession and dwelling in the past have done a tremendous amount of harm to me. I find it hard to enjoy or appreciate life anymore. Anything I can achieve in life pales in comparison against the millions I've lost on paper. My productivity at work dropped. But I don't want to be like this: I have never wanted to "become rich quick". I want to be an accomplished professional, earning what I have with my own abilities to contribute to society. I don't want to be stuck in this "get rich quick" dream anymore. I want to come to terms with what has happened, and make the best of it by carrying on with my life and be a better person. I'm hoping to draw on the wisdom of this sub: I've been reading many of the posts in this sub, and I think you guys have demonstrated your critical thinking, objectiveness, kindness (even if many of the posts are somewhat harsh in a humourous way), and general wisdom about life. I would appreciate any comments, insight, or advice you may have. At the same time, I hope you find such an experience as mine interesting and may provide some answers as to why this negative-sum game could've kept going for so long.
what do you need to be a professional gambler video
Professional gamblers are treated differently from amateur gamblers for tax purposes because a professional gambler is viewed as engaged in the trade or business of gambling. The professional gambler reports gambling winnings and losses for federal purposes on Schedule C, Profit or Loss From Business . Matched betting is probably the easiest way to become a professional gambler but does have an earnings cap. Once you have made £15,000-£20,000 you will need to move on to another way to make money gambling. Then once you have exhausted matched betting you can move on to making money from casino bonuses. Even more profitable but quite a bit harder. By maintaining books and records show that you’re not just a casual gambler, you can prove that you’re a professional. Study hard. Prepare for each tournament with a poker expert. This will show you consider gambling your job, and that improving your game is part of professional development. Don’t have an entourage. FACTORS USED IN DETERMINING PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER STATUS. There are several factors that the Courts have developed to identify and distinguish whether a person is considered a professional gambler or a casual gambler. The Life Of a Professional Slots Player. We’ve all tried slots at one point or another, and there’s no denying that it can be a lot of fun, especially given that there’s a chance we could win some real money back from just investing a few coins at a time. Slots players, like with anything, come in different shapes and sizes. If you do not know what I mean by money management you need to buy such book. Hint: You cannot play 50-100 stud on a $10,000 bankroll. You cannot bet $5000/game on a $50,000 bankroll. You cannot play a $5 video poker machine on a $100,000 bankroll. If you try this you are not a professional gambler you are just a gambler who will go broke That is what it means to be a professional gambler. As you would work at a regular “proper” job, you must do the same with betting. 1. Learn And Study – You Need To Know Your Stuff "The bottom line: It might be possible for you to file as a professional gambler even if you don’t meet every standard. However, you’ll have to show that the profession of gambling is your primary one on as many levels as possible — time, earnings, expertise, etc. And then, if you’re audited, you’re still at the mercy of a capricious Professional gambling requires a variety of personal qualities that few people possess. Some of the most important ones include precision money management and meticulous record-keeping, and those hoping to pursue a career as a professional gambler would do well to master the following: Strong research skills; Time management skills The successful gambler doesn’t feel that they’re fighting against the Bookmaker to the extent that they need to ‘force’ a win. Professional gamblers look for a long-term ROI — not short-term gains through generating winnings that cancel out previous losses.
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